DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 3, 2021

We’ve got a 10-game slate for Monday but I’m approaching it as an eight-game slate due to weather concerns. Coors Field is also on the slate which always needs to be factored in. The pitching is straightforward, although they are not smash plays by any means. Choosing pitchers to pick on was a little more difficult, especially when price of bats was factored in. There are three teams projected for fewer than four runs (TEX, TB, and LAA). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (SF and COL). There are zero teams projected for fewer than three runs. The BAL/SEA, PIT/SD, LAD/CHC, and NYM/STL games haven’t had their game totals released as of the time of this writing. 

                 
Weather could be a factor in the LAD/CHC and MIL/PHI games.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/3/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Tyler Glasnow ($10,300)

Glasnow isn’t my favorite pitcher on the slate. You’ll see who that is later. None of the pitchers today are in smash spots. I initially wanted to go with Walker Buehler against the Cubs because they strike out a ton, but they have tons of power and the weather risk keeps me away from that game. So, Glasnow it is. It’s not a bad consolation prize because he has a 16.6 percent swinging strike rate and 1.69 FIP. He’s only allowed two home runs on the season. The matchup isn’t great, though, as the Angels are 28^th in strikeouts and 11^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

Danny Jansen ($2,100)

I am punting catcher. Jansen stinks but the other options in the $3,500 range suck too so I’ll utilize the salary and hope to get lucky here. With Alejandro Kirk on the 10-day IL, Jansen should be locked into four plate appearances.

Alex Kirilloff ($2,900)

In 35 plate appearances, Kirilloff has three home runs and a .294 ISO. He hit two home runs in the same game on Friday then smashed one a day later. He’s on a bit of a heater. The slash is bad at .176/.200/.461 but the BABIP is only .136 so good fortune could also be on the way. He’s batting fifth in the lineup and is sub-$3,000. 

Amed Rosario ($4,200)

I decided on attacking Daniel Lynch and the Royals bullpen today. Lynch is a 24-year-old lefty who last pitched in Single-A+. The Royals pen has the 9^th-highest FIP. Cleveland is 24^th in strikeouts and 10^th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Rosario has two home runs on the season, the walk rate is 9.5 percent, and the strikeout rate is 17.6 percent. The BABIP is only .192 and in his career, he has a .171 ISO against lefties.

Ramon Laureano ($5,200)

I wanted to stack the Athletics righties against Steven Matz but I couldn’t make the salaries fit. I got at least one in with Laureano, though. Matz has been good to start the season but all three of his home runs have been to righties and the FIP is 4.93 vs. 1.60 against lefties. Laureano has four home runs and eight stolen bases on the season so there are multiple paths to scoring those fantasy goodies.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/3/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Kenta Maeda ($7,800)

Maeda has been awful to start the season, as the FIP is 6.18 and he’s allowed seven home runs in 23.1 innings. The swinging strike rate is still 13.6 percent and the BABIP is .372, so he’s experienced some bad luck. He has a chance to get right today as the Rangers are 1^st in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

Cesar Hernandez ($4,200)

We are stacking against the Royals pitching today and Hernandez will likely bat leadoff for the Indians. He doesn’t have much power and isn’t a rabbit on the base paths, but he is walking 13.3 percent of the time and the BABIP is only .211 so good fortune should come his way.

Jose Ramirez ($5,300)

Indians stack. Ramirez is one of the best players in MLB and has both power and speed. In his career against left-handed pitching, Ramirez has a .199 ISO, which is worse than the .224 against righties but it’s still good. 

Jordan Luplow ($4,100)

Luplow has been en fuego to start this season, as he’s clubbed six home runs in 73 plate appearances. He’s been playing more regularly this season after being a platoon bat and is actually hitting righties better than lefties. In his career, though, Luplow has a .326 ISO against lefties.

Eddie Rosario ($4,000)

Rosario is better against righties than lefties as the ISO is .227 vs. .126. The strikeout rates and batting average are the same against both handed pitchers. So the chances of him sending one over the fence are decreased, but he’s batting cleanup and he could get busy against the Royals pen.

Alternative Moves…

Raimel Tapia – OF ($4,000 DK) – He bats lead off for the Rockies and the game will be in Coors Field. Tapia has three home runs and one stolen base on the season. The walk rate is 7.9 percent while the strikeout rate is only 11.9 percent. The slash is .304/.356/.424. Yummy. The BABIP is .321 but he’s always maintained a high number and that is actually much lower than the .392 and .341 marks he posted the last two seasons. So better luck could be in the cards.

Dane Dunning – P ($6,600 DK)        

I told you the pitching was gross today. The matchup sucks as the Twins are 27^th in strikeouts and 4^th in ISO against righties. That said, I don’t want the pitchers in Coors Field or anyone in the weather games. Looking at the numbers, Dunning doesn’t look that bad. The swinging strike rate is only 9.8 percent but the FIP is 2.21 and the BABIP is .348, so he’s gotten unlucky. He’s also only allowed one home run in 22.2 innings.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.