DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 25, 2021

We’ve got a 13-game slate. There are a ton of pitching options today at every price point. Clayton Kershaw is freaking $8,000. I know Houston is good but geez. That’s insanity. The lowest he’s been priced this season is $9,500 in his first game. The lowest he was priced last season was $9,000. I assume that that the ownership is going to be sky-high with many pairing him with Jacob deGrom and/or Max Scherzer. I’m going to pay down again at both pitching slots, though, and fit in a stack that immediately jumped out to me. It should be a fun and interesting one today. CIN, COL, KC, BAL, SD, MIL, STL, TEX, and SEA are projected for fewer than four runs. NYY and MIN are projected for at least five runs while COL is projected for fewer than three runs. SF/ARI has not had their lines released yet.

                 
All clear on the weather front. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/25/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Clayton Kershaw ($8,000)

$8,000. Crazy. Ok, Houston is 30^th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching but they are only 17^thin ISO. Kershaw still has a 2.64 FIP and 17 percent swinging strike rate. He’s also only allowed five home runs in 56.2 innings while striking out 65 and walking 10. Outside of the -5.4 DKFP drubbing against the Cubs in one inning, Kershaw has scored at least 20 DKFP in every game with two above 30. 

Buster Posey ($4,500)

We are attacking Corbin Martin and the Arizona bullpen today. In five innings, he’s allowed two home runs and walked four batters. The swinging strike rate is 5.2 percent. It is a small sample size so let’s go back to 2019 when he pitched 19.1 MLB innings for the Astros. He posted a 8.49 FIP and gave up eight home runs. The swinging strike rate was 8.9 percent. When he’s out of the game, the Diamondbacks bullpen has the fifth-highest FIP in the league. As for Posey, he bats second in the lineup and you know I like including the catcher in the stack. This is the ideal scenario in which the catcher is actually a good hitter. Posey has nine home runs on the season with a .290 ISO. The walk rate is 10.7 percent while the strikeout rate is only 15.7 percent. The slash is .355/.430/.645. In his brief career, Martin has been more effective against lefties than righties, as the FIP is 12.47 compared to 4.97 against lefties. 

Brandon Belt ($4,300)

Belt bats cleanup for the Giants. He strikes out a ton (33.1 percent) but he has eight home runs and two stolen bases on the season. The ISO is .252. All eight of his home runs have come against right-handed pitchers.

Brandon Crawford ($4,100)

Crawford bats third for the Giants. He has a whopping 11 home runs and three stolen bases on the season. The Giants are a grip it and rip it team, especially against right-handed pitching. They are first in strikeouts but 7^th in ISO.

Mike Yastrzemski ($5,700)

Yastrzemski bats leadoff and is the most expensive bat in the Giants lineup, which is weird because he’s far from the best hitter. It is what it is, though. The slash is .214/.327/.466 but the ISO is .252. He has six home runs and one stolen base on the season. Against right-handed pitching, he has a .313 ISO.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/25/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Andrew Heaney ($6,200)

Heaney has gotten lit up for nine earned runs and four home runs in the last two games, so I get it. That said, he still has a 13.5 percent swinging strike rate and 50 strikeouts in 39 innings. He now gets to face a Rangers team that is 10^th in strikeouts and 23^rd in ISO against left-handed pitching. 

Marcus Semien ($5,400)

What a signing by the Blue Jays of Semien in the offseason. He’s been fantastic, providing 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, 30 runs, and 28 RBI. The ISO is .242 while the slash is .286/.351/.527. Against right-handed pitching, he’s slashing .295/.378/.574 with a .279 ISO. Corey Kluber is coming off a no-hitter but he’s been much less effective against righties than lefties. The K/9 is 7.53 compared to 10.8 and the FIP is 4.74 versus 3.46. In addition, all four of his home runs have been hit by righties.

Evan Longoria ($3,900)

Longoria bats fifth for the Giants. I forgot that he was still in the league but here we are. He has five home runs and one stolen base on the season. The walk rate is a fantastic 13.2 percent, which is highest level since 2011. He hasn’t had a double-digit walk rate since 2013. Anyways, the ISO is .174 and the slash is .242/.342/.417.  

Alex Kirilloff ($4,000)

Kirilloff has four home runs on the season. The strikeout rate is 27.6 percent but the ISO is a robust .273. He gets to face off against Dean Kremer, who has a 6.24 FIP and 8.6 percent swinging strike rate. He’s allowed 10 home runs in 34 innings while walking 13 and striking out 32 batters. He gives it up to both lefties and righties, so at least he doesn’t discriminate. 

Cedric Mullins ($3,800)

Mullins has been magnificent leading off for the Orioles this season. He has six home runs and five stolen bases with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate. The slash is .294/.360/.475 while the ISO is .181. Jose Berrios has been susceptible to lefties this season, as the FIP is 5.2 and the HR/9 is 1.71.

Alternative Moves…

Ozzie Albies – 2B ($5,000 DK) – Albies has nine home runs and two stolen bases. The strikeout rate is a paltry 15 percent while the ISO is .256. He bats cleanup for the Braves and gets to face Garrett Richards, who has a 4 FIP and 1.14 HR/9 against lefties compared to a 3.76 FIP and 0.36 HR/9 against righties. 

Jacob deGrom – P ($11,900 DK)      

deGrom is the best pitcher in the game. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. In 40 innings this season, the FIP is 1.08, swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 21.6 percent, and he’s only allowed two home runs while striking out 65 batters. Matchup doesn’t matter but he does get a Rockies team that is inept away from Coors Field. He did face them in Denver earlier this season and put up 43.1 DKFP.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.