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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 20, 2021

Xander Bogaerts
ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 02: Boston Red Sox Shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) during God Bless America during the baseball game between the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox on May 2nd, 2021, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. (Photo by Aric Becker/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got a tiny four-game slate for Thursday. The pitching options aren’t great so I took the two with the best matchup, which meant going head-to-head. Oh, the intrigue. With the pitching options scarce, that means there are plenty of viable batters and stacks. MIA and PIT are projected for fewer than four runs. ATL and TOR are projected for at least five runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. ARI/LAD haven’t had their lines posted yet.

All clear on the weather front. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherSandy Alcantara $9,300
 Pitcher   
 CatcherWill Smith $4,600
 First BaseMax Muncy $4,900
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopXander Bogaerts $5,700
 OutfieldMatt Beaty $3,100
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $300

Sandy Alcantara ($9,300)

Alcantara has a 14.4 percent swinging strike rate and has struck out 51 batters in 51 innings. The FIP is 3.78 and he’s allowed six home runs and walked 16. The Phillies are 6th in strikeouts and 24th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Will Smith ($4,600)

We are attacking Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks bullpen today. Kelly has a 4.5 FIP and 7.7 percent swinging strike rate. He’s only struck out 34 in 44.2 innings while allowing six home runs and issuing 16 walks. Once he’s out of the game, the Diamondbacks bullpen has the fourth-highest FIP in the league. Smith has four home runs and one stolen base on the season. The plate discipline numbers are fantastic – 12.1 percent walk rate and 14.4 percent strikeout rate. The ISO is .209 while the slash is .264/.271/.473. Make sure he’s in the lineup but, if he’s in, he will likely bat fifth in the order.

Max Muncy ($4,900)

Muncy bats second in the Dodgers lineup. The walk rate is a ridiculous 22.1 percent while the strikeout rate is 23.8 percent. The ISO is .223 and he’s clubbed eight home runs on the season. Against right-handed pitching, Muncy has a .275/.436/.560 with a .286 ISO.

Xander Bogaerts ($5,700)

We are attacking Steven Matz today. He’s served up five home runs to righties and the K-BB percentage goes down by 15 percent when compared to lefties. Bogaerts has nine home runs and two stolen bases on the season. The strikeout rate is only 17.6 percent. Against lefties, the slash is .340/.397/.604 with a .264 ISO this season.

Matt Beaty ($3,100)

Beaty batted fifth in the order last game, fourth the game before, and played seven games batting seventh prior to that. Regardless, he’s cheap and Beaty has a .293/.397/.379 slash in 68 plate appearances. The walk rate is 10.3 percent while the strikeout rate is 19.1 percent. The ISO is only .086 but he posted a .193 mark two seasons ago.

Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• Seven days free trial to read every and ALL of our content. 
• Full lineup support for the 50-50 lineup above
• A more risky full lineup for a GPP. 
• A number of alternative picks that you mix in for some variations on your core lineups.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherSandy Alcantara $9,300
 PitcherVince Velasquez $7,500
 CatcherWill Smith $4,600
 First BaseMax Muncy $4,900
 Second BaseGavin Lux $3,600
 Third BaseRafael Devers $5,400
 Short StopXander Bogaerts $5,700
 OutfieldMatt Beaty $3,100
 OutfieldLuke Raley $2,100
 OutfieldKike Hernandez $3,500
  
  

Salary Remaining          $300

Vince Velasquez ($7,500)

Velasquez has an 11.9 percent swinging strike rate and has struck out 37 batters in 29.1 innings. Now for the bad. He’s walked 19 and allowed seven home runs. The FIP is 5.66. Now back for the good. This has more twists and turns than a Korean drama show. The Marlins are 4th in strikeouts and 28thin ISO against right-handed pitching.

Gavin Lux ($3,600)

Lux only has a .117 ISO and .252/.298/.369 slash but he’s posted a .175 and .160 ISO over the past two seasons. He hit a grand slam on Tuesday so maybe the start of heater, perhaps? I sure hope so.

Rafael Devers ($5,400)

Matz is tough on lefties and Devers is better against righties but we’ve got a little mini-stack with the Red Sox going and the salary was available. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo ($2,100)

Makes sure Tsutsugo is in the lineup. If he doesn’t go, there’s a chance that Lucas Raley plays. Both are priced at $2,100 so the swap would be seamless. Tsutsugo is striking out 30.8 percent of the time but the walk rate is 11 percent. The ISO is only .050 this season but it was .197 last year. 

Kike Hernandez ($3,500)

Hernandez bats leadoff for the Red Sox. He has four home runs on the season with a 22.7 strikeout rate and .179 ISO. In his career against lefties, the slash is .262/.344/.470 with a .208 ISO. 

Alternative Moves…

Justin Turner – 3B ($5,000 DK) – Turner has seven home runs on the season with a .204 ISO. The walk rate is 13.7 percent while the strikeout rate is 21.4 percent. The slash is a .296/.393/.500. He bats third and is a vital piece of a Dodgers stack.

Drew Smyly – P ($8,400 DK)  

Smyly kind of stinks but the rest of the pitching pool stinks more. The FIP is 6.49 for Smyly and he’s served up nine home runs in 31 innings but the Pirates are 27th in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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