DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 14, 2021

We’ve got a 13-game slate for Friday. There are stud pitchers. There is Coors Field. There are tons of pitchers to attack today. So many paths to victory, at least that was my thinking going into things. I just couldn’t find the cheap pitching which prevented me from getting the stacks and bats I really wanted. There are some above average pitchers who have great matchups, but they are priced way up. Therefore, I’m paying up all the way up in both pitching slots today. I do feel relatively good with the bats I ended up with but, obviously, none of the high-priced bats are on the roster. BAL, NYM, TB, TEX, SEA, and MIA are projected for fewer than four runs. COL, CIN, HOU, TOR, and NYY are projected for at least five runs. MIA is projected for fewer than three runs. LAA/BOS, ATL/MIL, and WAS/ARI haven’t had their lines posted yet.

All clear on the weather front.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/14/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $400

Tyler Glasnow ($10,900)

Glasnow has struck out 75 batters in 49.1 innings. End of analysis. Fine, the swinging strike rate is a robust 16.8 percent and the FIP is 2.79. He has walked 19 batters, though, and the BABIP is a low .211 while the LOB percentage is at 87.1. So, he won’t have good fortune forever. That said, the Mets are a pretty inept offense right now. They are 28^th in strikeouts, but they are dead-last in ISO. Glasnow should handle this squad no problem.

Manny Pina ($3,000)

Pina has two home runs on the season with a .200 ISO. The walk rate is 12.2 percent while the strikeout rate is only 19.4 percent. The slash is .171/.268/.371 with a BABIP of .154. Good fortune is on the horizon. Drew Smyly has a 7.34 FIP and has allowed nine home runs in 25 innings.

Rowdy Tellez ($2,800)

We are attacking the Phillies pitching today. At first, I was on the WAS stack against ARI but then I noticed that TOR had the highest projected total on the slate. Higher than the Coors Field game. The PHI bullpen has the seventh-highest FIP in the league. Vince Velasquez has 30 strikeouts in 23.2 innings and the swinging strike rate is 11.5 percent. He’s also allowed six home runs, 11 earned runs, and has issued 16 walks. The control has always been his big bugaboo. The FIP is 5.89 compared to the 4.18 ERA. 

Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($4,100)

IKF has five home runs and seven stolen bases on the season. The slash is .284/.329/.441 with a .158 ISO and 18.2 strikeout rate. Zack Greinke is a good pitcher but he has been far from dominant. The FIP is 4.31 and swinging strike rate is 8.9 percent. 

Randal Grichuk ($4,000)

George Springer who? Due to his injury, Grichuk has received a full complement of plate appearances and feasted. The walk rate is 19.4 percent while the slash is .277/.317/.462 with a .185 ISO. He has six home runs on the season. We are stacking against the Phillies pitching. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/14/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $400

Clayton Kershaw ($10,000)

Kershaw is still a really good pitcher. The FIP is 2.45 and swinging strike rate is at 15.6 percent. He’s only allowed three home runs and walked eight batters in 44.2 innings while striking out 46. The Marlins are 9^th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. 

David Bote ($4,600)

I really wanted to stack the Cubs against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers bullpen, but it was too expensive of an endeavor, considering that I paid up for both pitchers. I did get one piece though. The Tigers bullpen has the highest FIP in the league while Skubal has a 7.87 FIP and has allowed 10 home runs while walking 16 in 27 innings. Bote only has a .100 ISO this season with two home runs but he has a career .164 ISO mark. 

Cavan Biggio ($3,400)

Biggio bats sixth for our Blue Jays stack against Philly pitching. He’s struggled out of the gate because he’s been trying to be more aggressive at the plate. This has resulted in a higher strikeout and chase rate. That said, he has three home runs and one stolen base and still can bop one over the fence. He’s a career .179 ISO batter.

Teoscar Hernandez ($3,800)

Teoscar bats cleanup in our stack. The ISO is .213 and he has five home runs and one stolen base on the season. The slash is .293/.338/.507. The BABIP is .347 so that will come down but he did maintain a .348 BABIP last season through 207 plate appearances. 

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,000)

Gurriel bats seventh in our stack. He’s gotten off to a frigid start, as the slash is .193/.216/.277 with a .084 ISO. He’s a career .203 ISO batter so he’s going to get it going at some point. That could be today. 

Alternative Moves…

Tommy Edman – 2B ($4,100 DK) – Edman bats leadoff for the Cardinals and has two home runs and five stolen bases. The plate discipline is fantastic as he strikes out only 10.4 percent of the time while walking 6.7 percent. He’s not a power hitter, as the ISO is at .106, but the slash is .278/.335/.284 so he can get on base and wreak havoc and score runs. Joe Musgrove got off to a fantastic start but he’s scuffled lately. He’s allowed four and five runs in the last two starts while failing to pitch past five innings.  

Max Scherzer – P ($10,700 DK)       

Going from Bote to Edman will leave enough salary to go from Kershaw to Scherzer. Or you could do a straight swap with Glasnow, which would give you some money to upgrade a bat. It’s up to you. Either path works. Scherzer has struck out 61 batters in 46.1 innings and has a 16.2 swinging strike rate. The FIP is 3.29 and he’s only walked seven batters. He has given up eight home runs though.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.