DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 11, 2021

We’ve got a 12-game slate for Tuesday. There are two clear pitchers up top in John Means and Walker Buehler. I initially just paid up for them but then I pivoted as I dug into things more. This will be the first time this season that I’m paying down at both pitcher slots. In addition, this will be the first time I’m taking on more risk than is probably necessary. You’ve been warned. Coors Field is on this slate and I felt compelled to stack one side of that game after I found two pitchers I liked. Actually, let me rephrase that. I found two pitchers who have a ton of upside but are in scary matchups so things can go kaput very easily. This may be more of a GPP lineup but even if the pitchers fail, there are outs with the lineup. There are eight teams projected for fewer than four runs (SEA, LAA, COL, STL, DET, BAL, NYM, and TB). There is one team projected for at least five runs (SD). There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (SEA). 

                 
Light rain is expected in Colorado again but the risk seems mitigated today. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/11/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Yusei Kikuchi ($8,400)

Kikuchi has a 4.4 FIP and has allowed six home runs while walking 12 in 37.2 innings. He allowed five earned runs in a game twice this season so the floor is super low. The swinging strike rate is 12.9 percent, though, and he has a 10 strikeout game on the season. Over the last two games, he’s struck out seven batters in seven innings during both contests. That’s translated to 20.2 and 32 DKFP. Now, the matchup against the Dodgers seems like a daunting one but they are 10^th in strikeouts and 25^th in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. The floor is low, and it’s scary that Vegas has the Dodgers projected for 4.7 runs (third-highest on the slate), but the ceiling is high. He could match or exceed Means and Buehler who are $1,400 and $1,900 more expensive. 

Manny Pina ($3,000)

I’m punting at catcher to fit in the high-priced bats. He’s not a terrible option since the strikeout rate is only 21.2 percent and the ISO is .241. He does have two home runs on the season. 

Matt Adams ($2,600)

With CJ Cron on the IL, Adams should play more. He’s only accrued 17 plate appearances so far. He has a career .214 ISO against right-handed pitching. Dinelson Lamet is a tough pitcher, but the game is in Coors Field and he’s so cheap.

Fernando Tatis ($5,900)

We are stacking the Padres today and attacking Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.9 percent swinging strike rate and 5.19 FIP. Tatis has nine home runs and seven stolen bases on the season and has a .287 career ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s also batting leadoff. 

Trent Grisham ($4,300)

Grisham bats second in the Padres order. He has five home runs and six stolen bases, so both Tatis and Grisham have multiple paths to getting those fantasy goodies. The strikeout rate is high for Grisham at 26.1 percent but the walk rate is 10.8 percent and the ISO is a robust .222. Senzatela is an equal opportunity advocate as he gives it up to both righties and lefties equally. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/11/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Robbie Ray ($7,800)

Ray and Kikuchi are twins today. Both throw from the left side, both have mediocre FIPs, and both face potent offenses. Like Kikuchi, though, Ray also has a high swinging strike rate (14.6 percent). He’s struck out 29 batters in 28.2 innings. Now, the Braves are one of the best offenses in the league and Vegas has them projected for the second-highest run total on the slate. Against left-handed pitching, though, they are 7^th in strikeouts and 26^th in ISO. 

Jake Cronenworth ($4,400)

Cronenworth only strikes out 14.2 percent of the time and has a 9.5 percent walk rate. He’s not one of the main boppers for the Padres, as he hits sixth in the order, but he does have a .140 ISO with three home runs and three stolen bases on the season. We are attacking Senzatela today. Oh, the Rockies bullpen also has the second-highest FIP. 

Manny Machado ($5,300)

Nom nom nom. Hopefully, the Padres eat against the Rockies pitching today. If they do, Machado should have something to do with it as he hits third in the batting order. On the season, he has four home runs and five stolen bases. The strikeout rate is only 19.2 percent. The slash is only .228/.322/.362, though, but he should experience some better fortune as the BABIP is only .260.

Wil Myers ($4,200)

The final piece to the Padres stack. I wanted Hosmer but he was too expensive. No worries as Myers bats fifth and is no slouch himself. Myers has four home runs and four stolen bases. The ISO is .162 and the strikeout rate is 22.7 percent while the walk rate is 11.8 percent. Man, just going through these numbers, the Padres offense is so potent and can hurt a pitcher in so many ways.

Adam Duvall ($4,100)

The final piece to the puzzle. Madison Bumgarner has pitched much better this season than last. The swinging strike rate is 12.3 percent after being 7.5 percent last season. He’s given up four of the five home runs to righties and the strikeout rate decreases 10 percent compared to against lefties. Duvall strikes out a lot (35 percent) but he’s clubbed six home runs on the season and the ISO is at .216. In his career against lefties, the ISO is .240.

Alternative Moves…

Teoscar Hernandez – OF ($3,900 DK) – Hernandez has three home runs and one stolen base on the season. Last season’s numbers were boosted by a sky-high BABIP so the .250 batting average is more in-line with his career norm. He strikes out around 30 percent of the time but the power is real. Bryce Wilson has a 9.6 swinging strike rate and has struck out six batters in 12 innings. He’s also allowed four home runs over that span. It’s a great matchup for Teoscar. 

Kwang Hyun Kim – P ($7,200 DK)  

Kim got off to a rough beginning, as he allowed three earned runs in three innings during his first start. Since then, he’s pitched 5.2, five, and four innings while allowing only one earned run in each contest. The swinging strike rate is 12.5 percent and the FIP is 2.65. The Brewers are 5^th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.