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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for June 30, 2021

DENVER, CO - APRIL 24: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches during a game between the Colorado Rockies and the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado on April 24, 2021. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got a 10-game slate for Wednesday. Chris Bassitt is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate. Uh, I like Bassitt but that’s a no from me dog. Matt Harvey is pitching which is akin to having Coors Field on the slate. There are some games that could have weather issues so the 10-game slate could get cut down into the single digits. Keep an eye on the reports. I’m not comfortable with the lower-priced pitching so I’m paying up at both slots, but not to Bassitt. As a result, I usually like to stack but the good ones are so expensive. NYM, BAL, and TEX are projected for fewer than four runs. HOU, BOS, SD, TOR, NYY, and CLE are projected for at least five runs, with TOR, BOS, and HOU at 6 runs or more. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. MIA/PHI have not had their lines posted yet.

         
There are light weather concerns for DET/CLE, SD/CIN, and KC/BOS. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 6/30/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherAaron Nola $10,200
 Pitcher   
 CatcherKurt Suzuki $2,000
 First BaseJared Walsh $4,400
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopDansby Swanson $4,500
 OutfieldKyle Tucker $4,300
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $100

Aaron Nola ($10,200)

Nola has a 13 percent swinging strike rate and 3.43 FIP. He’s coming off a game in which he struck out 10 consecutive batters. Now he gets to face a Marlins team that is 7th in strikeout and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Take that Bassitt!

Kurt Suzuki ($2,000)

He’s $2,000. 

Jared Walsh ($4,400)

Walsh strikes out a lot (29 percent) but he has 18 home runs and 53 RBI on the season. The slash is .283/.345/.556 with a .272 ISO. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .342/.415/.668 with a .326 ISO. Domingo German has a 20.4 percent strikeout rate, 1.89 HR/9, and 4.74 FIP against lefties this season.

Dansby Swanson ($4,500)

Swanson has similar numbers against righties and lefties but he has more power against the lefties. The ISO is .283 compared to .185. He gets to face a lefty in David Peterson who has a 1.51 HR/0 and 5.08 FIP against righties. The strikeout rate decreases 9 percent when compared to lefties.

Kyle Tucker ($4,300)

Tucker bats sixth, which kind of stinks but also shows how deep the Astros lineup is. He has 13 home runs, 44 runs, 46 RBI, and five stolen bases on the season. The strikeout rate is only 15.5 percent and the ISO is .223. Now he gets to face Matt Harvey who has a 15 percent strikeout rate, 5.05 FIP, and 1.45 HR/9 against lefties.

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|• A STUD and a VALUE play at each position. 

PITCHER

  • STUD – Shohei Ohtani ($8,700) has a 14.3 percent swinging strike rate. The FIP is 3.52 and he’s struck out 82 batters in 59.1 innings. He’s been very good at limiting the long ball but the BB/9 is 4.7. That said, he faces a Yankees team that is 9th in strikeout and only 16th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
  • VALUE – Shohei Ohtani ($8,700). A first in DFS Experts history. A pitcher is both a stud and value. And it makes sense that it would be Ohtani since he literally does everything. I don’t like any of the lower-priced pitching options and Ohtani is sub-$9,000.

CATCHER

  • STUD – Salvador Perez ($5,200) has 18 home runs and 47 RBI on the season. Against lefties, the slash is .303/.338/.671 with a .368 ISO. Martin Perez has a 4.67 FIP and 1.26 HR/9 to righties this season.
  • VALUE – Martin Maldonado ($2,800) is not a particularly good hitter and has a ton of swing and miss to his game but he does have five home runs on the season. He gets to face Matt Harvey. End of analysis.

FIRST BASE

  • STUD – Yuli Gurriel ($5,100) is the antithesis of Maldonado as the slash is .332/.396/.517 with a .185 ISO and 9.1 percent strikeout rate. He has 10 home runs and 52 RBI on the season. Astros stack against Matt Harvey if you can afford it.
  • VALUE – Bobby Dalbec ($3,100). Make sure he’s in the starting lineup but he’s been much more successful against left-handed pitching than righties that I think he will play in this one. The slash is .273/.296/.558 with a .286 ISO compared to .176/.243/.346 with a .169 ISO against righties. Mike Minor is a lefty who is much more successful against lefties. Shocker. The FIP is 4.36 and HR/9 is 1.51.

SECOND BASE

  • STUD – Marcus Semien ($5,600) was recommended yesterday and all he did was go 3-for-5 with a home run, five RBI, and a stolen base. Now he gets to face Justus Sheffield who has a 5.7 FIP, 17.4 percent strikeout rate, and 1.93 HR/9 against righties.
  • VALUE – Luis Rengifo ($2,100). As long as Rengifo is starting and priced at the absolute minimum, then he will be the value play at second base. He’s not a great hitter and the slash is gross but he’s scored double-digit DKFP in three of the last 10 games. That was written for yesterday’s slate. His price increased $100. I will keep writing him up as the value play until his price increases.

THIRD BASE

  • STUD – Matt Chapman ($6,100) has a 30.8 percent strikeout rate and .170 ISO. That said, he has 10 home runs and he’s a career .237 ISO hitter. He gets to face Foltynewicz so he could get right tonight. Well, I wrote that for yesterday’s slate and all he did was hit a home run. He gets to face Kolby Allard today who has been decent against righties but the HR/9 is still 1.36. Chapman has been much more productive against lefties and the slash is .252/.333/.466 with a .214 ISO compared to .216/.320/.359 with a .144 ISO against righties.
  • VALUE – Abraham Toro ($3,500). I’m not crazy about the value at third base so Toro it is. He’s not a particularly good hitter or possesses much power, as the slash is .239/.327/.370 with a .130 ISO, but he gets to face Matt Harvey. End of discussion.

SHORTSTOP

  • STUD – Bo Bichette ($5,800) destroys left-handed pitching as the slash is .364/.425/.621 with a .258 ISO. He gets to go up against Justus Sheffield who I wrote about earlier. Bichette is coming off a 2-for-5 game with a home run and three RBI.
  • VALUE – I don’t like any of the value at shortstop.

OUTFIELD

  • STUD – Yordan Alvarez ($6,000). Too bad we play in a game with a salary cap. The Astros stack is expensive but looks very juicy. That said, it’s baseball and anything can happen so Harvey shut out incoming? Alvarez has 13 home runs and 49 RBI on the season. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .292/.358/.542 with a .250 ISO. 
  • VALUE – Taylor Ward ($2,500) bats fifth in the Angels lineup and is super cheap. He doesn’t hit for a high average but against right-handed pitching the ISO is .248. He has seven home runs and 27 RBI in 184 plate appearances.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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