DFS MLB Baseball Picks for June 29, 2021

We’ve got a 15-game slate for Tuesday. As you’d expect on a massive slate, there’s something for everyone. You want stud pitching? Take your pick. 

Want to attack terrible pitchers? There are plenty of those. Coors Field is on the slate and the most interesting matchup of the day is Carlos Martinez versus the Diamondbacks offense. It’s the opposite of the immovable object versus the whatever that phrase is. SF, LAD, TEX, CHC, ARI, NYM, and PHI are projected for fewer than four runs. NYY, TOR, BOS, CLE, SD, and COL are projected for at least five runs, with TOR, BOS, and COL at 6 runs or more. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. BAL/HOU have not had their lines posted yet.

         
All clear on the weather front for now. Keep in mind that I’m writing this on Monday night.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 6/29/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Brandon Woodruff ($11,000)

Woodruff has a 12.3 percent swinging strike rate and has struck out 111 batters in 95 innings. The FIP is 2.8. In 10 starts this season, he’s scored at least 30 DKFP in four. Now he gets to face a Cubs teams that is 1^st in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. 

Gary Sanchez ($4,800)

Andrew Heaney is tough as he has a 32.9 percent strikeout rate against righties. That said, the HR/9 is 1.75 against them. Sanchez has a .328 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Once Heaney is out of the game, the Angels bullpen has the 8^th-highest FIP.

Mitch Moreland ($3,800)

Mike Foltynewicz has a 6.3 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, and 2.03 HR/9. The FIP is 5.53 and the swinging strike rate is only 7.4 percent. Against lefties, the slash is .328/.388/.642 and he’s allowed 11 home runs to them. Moreland only has a .111 ISO against righties this season but, over his career, that number has been .209.

Gleyber Torres ($3,500)

Where did the power go? The ISO is .074 for Torres and he only has three home runs on the season. He hit 38 two seasons ago. Both the hard hit rate and average exit velocity are at career-lows. That said, he’s cheap and gets to face Angels pitching. He’s going to heat up at some point so I’m going to play him for as long as he’s priced down here.

Raimel Tapia ($4,300)

The home/away splits are drastic for Tapia. At home, the slash is .327/.378/.519 with a .192 ISO. On the road, those numbers are .263/.305/.286 with a .023 ISO. Well, he’s at home and batting leadoff.

PITCHER

• STUD – Robbie Ray ($10,500) has a 15.4 percent swinging strike rate. The Mariners are 5^th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. 1+1=2. Ray is susceptible to the long ball, though, as the HR/9 is 2.01 but Seattle is middle of the pack in ISO. Ray has gone for at least 20 DKFP in eight of 10 starts with a high of 35.3.
• VALUE – Blake Snell ($7,600) has been all over the map this season. He’s scored single digits in five of the last 10 starts with two of those in the negative. He’s also gone for at least 20 DKFP with a high of 38.6. He misses bats and racks up strikeouts but the walks kill him and high pitch counts knock him out games early. The price is palatable for the upside.

CATCHER

• STUD – Sean Murphy ($4,600). I went over Foltynewicz earlier. Against right-handed pitching, Murphy has a .258/.375/.508 slash with a .250 ISO. He has 10 home runs and 39 RBI on the season.
• VALUE – Reese McGuire ($3,400) has a .352/.403/.479 slash against right-handed pitching this season. It’s only been 78 plate appearances, though, but it is what it is. He gets to face Chris Flexen who only has a 14.4 percent strikeout rate against lefties with a 5.15 FIP.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Vladmir Guerrero Jr. ($6,000). Flexen isn’t just mediocre against lefties. The strikeout rate is only 16.2 percent and the FIP is 5.42 against righties. Vlad has 26 home runs and 66 RBI on the season and he’s crushed right-handed pitching, as the slash is .364/.440/.750 with a .386 ISO!
• VALUE – Shohei Ohtani ($4,900). Whatever the price is, Ohtani will always be a value. I don’t care. He has 25 home runs, 52 runs, 59 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. The ISO is .391!

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Marcus Semien ($5,400). There’s a reason why the Blue Jays are projected for 5.7 runs. Chris. Flexen. I’d love to stack Toronto but they are all so priced high. That said, if you have the salary, go for it and have fun. 
• VALUE – Luis Rengifo ($2,000). As long as Rengifo is starting and priced at the absolute minimum, then he will be the value play at second base. He’s not a great hitter and the slash is gross but he’s scored double-digit DKFP in three of the last 10 games.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Matt Chapman ($5,800) has a 30.8 percent strikeout rate and .170 ISO. That said, he has 10 home runs and he’s a career .237 ISO hitter. He gets to face Foltynewicz so he could get right tonight.
• VALUE – Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,500) hasn’t been great this season as the slash is .227/.332/.380. He’s a career .267 batter though and the ISO is still .153. The walk rate is 13 percent and the strikeout rate is only 20.7 percent. He’s batting third in the order and he super cheap. Carlos Martinez has been good keeping the ball in the park but the FIP is 4.82 while the K/9 is 6.04 and the walk rate is 4.07.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Trevor Story ($6,100) has nine home runs and 14 stolen bases on the season. The slash is only .254/.327/.443 with a .189 ISO. Those are far below his career averages. He’s in Coors Field and gets to tee off on Chase De Jong who has a 5.34 FIP, 4.18 BB/9, and 1.9 HR/9.
• VALUE – Josh Rojas ($3,200). I talked about Carlos Martinez earlier and Rojas is batting leadoff for the Diamondbacks. He has nine home runs and three stolen bases. The slash is .260/.333/.436 with a .176 ISO. 

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,300) has 21 home runs, 61 runs, 47 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. The walk rate is 13.2 percent while the strikeout rate is 23.8 percent. The slash is .282/.389/.602 with a .320 ISO. I just got aroused typing all of that. He is one of the best hitters in the league. Now he gets to face Tylor Megill who only has 4.1 MLB innings to his name.
• VALUE – Akil Baddoo ($3,000) is just too cheap. He’s batting leadoff and he’s really improved and developed as the season has progressed. Since the beginning of June, the slash is .351/.448/.456. It’s been fueled by a .426 BABIP and the ISO is only .105 but the walk and strikeout rates are both 14.9 percent. He’s stolen four bases and we know that he has power.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.