DFS MLB Baseball Picks for June 28, 2021

We’ve got a nine-game slate for Monday. The pitching is thin up top but that means there are tons of pitchers to pick on. That said, many of those stacks are expensive so finding a cheap pitcher to roll with is paramount to fitting them in. I can’t do it so I’m paying up at both pitcher slots. I did find a relatively cheap stack, though, so I don’t feel so bad. SF, BAL, and CHC are projected for fewer than four runs. NYY, BOS, CLE, HOU, and STL are projected for at least five runs, with HOU at a whopping 6.1 runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. NYM/WAS have not had their lines posted yet.

         
There looks to be some rain in the forecast for the MIN/CHW game but nothing too daunting.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 6/28/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Zack Greinke ($9,800)

It was only two and three starts ago that Greinke was priced in the $7,000 range. He scored negative fantasy points against Boston but bounced back against Texas. In the most recent game, he faced these same Orioles and put up 22.9 DKFP. The price is expensive but the matchup is a good one as Baltimore is 9^th in strikeouts and 21^st in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

Yadier Molina ($3,700)

I’m stacking the Cardinals today as they are relatively cheap and they get to face Diamondbacks pitching. Jake Faria is getting the start but he won’t last long as he’s thrown 45, 14, and 17 pitches in three appearances this season. The swinging strike rate is 5.3 percent and the FIP is 4.65. Once he’s out of the game, the Cardinals get to face the Diamondbacks bullpen which has the third-highest FIP and fourth-highest HR/9. Molina has seven home runs and 31 RBI in 215 plate appearances. He bats fifth in the order and has a .254/.307/.421 slash with an 18.6 percent strikeout rate and .168 ISO.

Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500)

Goldschmidt bats second in the order for the Cardinals. The slash and ISO are similar to Molina’s but he has 11 home runs, 40 RBI, and five stolen bases on the season. 

Gleyber Torres ($3,400)

Where did the power go? The ISO is .075 for Torres and he only has three home runs on the season. He hit 38 two seasons ago. Both the hard hit rate and average exit velocity are at career-lows. That said, he’s cheap and gets to face Dylan Bundy who has struggled all season and has allowed 2.04 HR/9 to righties.

Dylan Carlson ($3,500)

Carlson bats leadoff or second for the Cardinals. He has seven home runs and has scored 38 runs on the season. The walk rate is 10.6 percent while the strikeout rate is 23.9 percent. He has a .265/.352/.407 slash with a .142 ISO. 

PITCHER

• STUD – Trevor Bauer ($10,900). I do like Bauer a lot today as the Giants are 5^th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching and Bauer has a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate and 129 strikeouts in 101.2 innings. In addition, the last time he faced the Giants, he put up 36.7 DKFP. That said, I did want to save a little bit of salary and felt that the other pitching options could come close to matching his production.
• VALUE – Kenta Maeda ($7,500). I’m not crazy about the value pitching options today but if I do pay down, I’d go with Maeda. The pitch count has been low as he’s thrown 84 and 76 pitches the last two games after missing close to a month. At least the trend is going in the right direction and the matchup is a decent one as the White Sox are 27^th in ISO against right-handed pitching and could be without Jose Abreu who took a pitch off the knee on Sunday.

CATCHER

• STUD – Gary Sanchez ($4,700). In the month of June, Sanchez is batting .300/.372/.686 with seven home runs and 16 RBI. The strikeout rate is always high at 26.9 percent but the walk rate is 10.3 percent and the ISO is a whopping .386. I wrote earlier about Dylan Bundy. 
• VALUE – Max Stassi ($3,400) has a 30.6 percent strikeout rate and the BABIP is .404. That said, the ISO is .218 and he has five home runs in 98 plate appearances. He also bats fifth in the Angels lineup.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Shohei Ohtani ($5,000). It really is ridiculous how good Ohtani is. He literally does it all. End of analysis. Ok, fine. He has 24 home runs in 287 plate appearances with 50 runs and 56 RBI. The strikeout rate is high at 29.3 percent but the ISO is a robust .373. Now he gets to face Michael King who has a 5.55 FIP against lefties.
• VALUE – Michael Chavis ($3,700). Since being recalled from Triple-A, Chavis has batted leadoff for the Red Sox. The strikeout rate on the season is 39.1 percent, but did I mention that he’s batting leadoff? He does have one home runs and one stolen base is 46 plate appearances this season. Did I mention that he’s batting leadoff?

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Jose Altuve ($5,800). I’d love to stack the Astros today but they are so expensive. And for good reason as Thomas Eshelman is #notgood. The sample size is only 8.2 innings but the swinging strike rate is a paltry 5.2 percent and the FIP is 5.92. He’s allowed two home runs already. Altuve bats leadoff for the Astros and has 17 home runs, 58 runs, 41 RBI, and two stolen bases. The slash is .296/.371/.521 with a 15.6 percent strikeout rate, 11.1 percent walk rate, and .225 ISO. 
• VALUE – Luis Rengifo ($2,000). Rengifo only has a .152/.188/.304 slash but the BABIP is only .156 and the ISO is .152. He will likely bat second in the order and is the stone minimum.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Jose Ramirez ($5,500) is having a great season so far. He has 16 home runs, 49 runs, 44 RBI, and six stolen bases. The walk rate is 10.5 percent while the strikeout rate is only 12.6 percent. The slash is .258/.344/.512 with a .254 ISO. Now he gets to face Matt Manning and the Tigers bullpen. Manning has only pitched 10.2 innings but the swinging strike rate is only 5.7 percent. The Tigers bullpen has the fourth-highest FIP in the league.
• VALUE – Jeimer Candelario ($3,000) is cheap and bats third in the lineup. The ISO on the season is only .105. He has a career mark of .151. He faces Eli Morgan who can miss bats but has a 5.89 FIP and has allowed four home runs in 11.1 innings so far this season.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Xander Bogaerts ($5,000) has a .327/.389/.554 slash with a .227 ISO. He has 13 home runs, 46 runs, 46 RBI, and five stolen bases on the season. Against left-handed pitching, the slash is .350/.448/.563 with a .213 ISO. Danny Duffy has been good this season but he’s only pitched 42 and 15 pitches in the last two games. 
• VALUE – Paul DeJong ($2,900). DeJong has been bad this season and has been relegated to the bottom of the lineup. The slash is .165/.260/.341. That said, there is some reason for optimism. The ISO is still .176 and the BABIP is only .167 so some good things could be on the horizon, especially since he gets to face Diamondbacks pitching.

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Yordan Alvarez ($5,800). I went over Thomas Eschelman earlier. Yordan is one of the best power hitters in the league. The slash is .306/.370/.541 with a .236 ISO. He has 13 home runs and 49 RBI on the season. 
• VALUE – Cody Bellinger ($3,900) is just too cheap. When he’s right, he’s a $6,000 player. Well, he’s homered in two straight games and could be regaining his form. The matchup isn’t a great one as Anthony DeSclafani has pitched well this year but did I mention that Bellinger is too cheap?

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.