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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for June 17, 2021

Vlad Gurerrro Jr.
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 20: Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) during the Major League Baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Toronto Blue Jays on September 20, 2020 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got a 15-game slate for Friday. This is a crazy slate because there are plenty of stud pitchers, although some don’t have the greatest matchups. There are also a ton of terrible pitchers so plenty of stack options. Coors Field is on the slate again and, unfortunately, one of the best pitchers is hurling there. TB, SEA, CIN, and PIT are projected for fewer than four runs. TOR, NYY, ATL, MIN, MIL, and LAA are projected for at least five runs, with MIL at a whopping 6.1 runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. 

All clear on the weather front as of this writing.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 6/17/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherAlex Cobb $8,800
 Pitcher   
 CatcherVictor Caratini $2,900
 First BaseVladimir Guerrero Jr. $6,000
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopBo Bichette $5,800
 OutfieldRandal Grichuk $3,800
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $000

Alex Cobb ($8,800)

Man, I didn’t realize how good of a season Cobb has had so far. He has a 2.54 FIP and a 12 percent swinging strike rate. He’s struck out 52 batters in 43.1 innings while only allowing two home runs. The ERA is 4.98 but he’s had plenty of bad luck as the BABIP is .357 and LOB percentage is 57.7. Now he gets the best matchup for right-handed pitchers as he faces the Tigers who are 1st in strikeouts.

Victor Caratini ($2,900)

Caratini is strictly a salary play as I wanted to fit as many Blue Jays hitters as possible.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,000)

Vlad Jr.’s 2021 has been one big heater. He has 22 home runs, 50 runs, and 56 RBI. The slash is .343/.447/.682 with a .339 ISO. The most impressive thing is that the strikeout rate of 16 percent is almost the same as the 14.5 percent walk rate. Now, he crushes righties and is just average against lefties and Bruce Zimmerman is a lefty. That said, I want to stack the Blue Jays and I need Guerrero in that stack. There are so many juicy stacks to choose from today but I went with Toronto because of two things. Zimmerman has allowed 12 home runs on the season, the K/9 is 7.42, and FIP is 5.4 against righties. In addition, Camden Yards is the second-best ballpark for home runs in MLB.

Bo Bichette ($5,800)

Bichette bats second for Toronto and I just went over why I chose this stack. Bichette has 14 home runs and nine stolen bases on the season. The slash is .283/.331/.496 with a .213 ISO.

Randal Grichuk ($3,800)

Grichuck will likely bat cleanup for the Blue Jays. He’s been very good this season as well, producing 13 home runs and 44 RBI in 266 plate appearances. The ISO is .209 and the batting average is .260. We are stacking against the Orioles pitching staff today.

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PITCHER

  • STUD – Trevor Bauer ($10,600). The swinging strike rate is 12.4 percent and the FIP is 3.79. Bauer’s bugaboos are the walks and home runs as he’s allowed 14 home runs and 29 walks in 88.2 innings. That said, he’s struck out 111 batters. The Diamondbacks are 14th in strikeouts and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching. 
  • VALUE – Zach Davies ($7,300). There’s volatility with Davies as he’s scored fewer than 10 DKFP in four starts this season. That said, he’s scored over 20 DKFP in each of the last two starts. He gets a good matchup as the Marlins are 8th in strikeouts and 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

CATCHER

  • STUD – Omar Narvaez ($4,600). He’s in Coors Field. End of analysis. Fine, he has six home runs on the season and the slash is .318/.400/.493 with a .176 ISO. He faces Antonio Senzatela who has actually been better at home than on the road and suppresses home runs well, but the swinging strike rate is only 7.8 percent.
  • VALUE – Ryan Jeffers ($3,100) is much better against left-handed pitching but it’s Mike Foltynewicz on the mound so I’ll make an exception. The Twins are one of the stacks I was contemplating so Jeffers is a candidate due to the cheap price and environment. 

FIRST BASE

  • STUD – Matt Olson ($5,900). Jameson Taillon has a 5.69 FIP and 2.31 HR/9 against lefties. Olson has bounced back in a huge way after his sub-par 2020 season. The strikeout rate is only 16.5 percent after being at 31.4 percent last season. He has 18 home runs and 49 RBI and the slash is .297/.378/.603 with a .306 ISO.
  • VALUE – Mitch Moreland ($3,100). Moreland is only deployed against right-handed pitching, and for good reason. The strikeout rate is 13 percent lower while the batting average is .07 higher. The ISO is lower this season but in his career, Moreland is a career .210 ISO batter against right-handed pitching.

SECOND BASE

  • STUD – Jorge Polanco ($4,900). Polanco bats leadoff for the Twins and gets to face Mike Foltynewicz. I went over earlier why I like this matchup. Polanco has nine home runs and four stolen bases on the season. The strikeout rate is only 16.3 percent while the ISO is a healthy .190.
  • VALUE – Adam Frazier ($4,100). Frazier isn’t sexy and won’t provide those Sportscenter highlights. He only has two home runs and four stolen bases on the season. He has scored 36 runs, though, has a strikeout rate of only 11 percent, and the slash .324/.386/.458. The BABIP is high at .362 so some regression could be on the horizon but he’s been excellent against both righties and lefties.

THIRD BASE

  • STUD – Rafael Devers ($5,700) is the highest-priced third baseman, and for good reason. He has 16 home runs and 55 RBI on the season. The ISO of .283 matches his batting average. Now he faces Jackson Kowar who has not had a happy MLB debut. In two innings, he’s allowed eight earned runs and walked five.
  • VALUE – Kyle Seager ($3,600). It’s gross recommending Seager but he’s priced below $4,000 for a reason. He’s batting near the Mendoza line but 10 of his 13 home runs have come against righties. Michael Wacha is a righty and is not imposing in any way. The K/9 is 4.40 and FIP is 4.84 against lefties. 

SHORTSTOP

  • STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,200). He’s one of the best players in MLB. He has power. He has speed. He hits for average. He does it all. Now he gets to face Tony Santillan who has 4.2 MLB innings to his name.
  • VALUE – Paul DeJong ($3,200). DeJong has been bad this season and has been relegated to the bottom of the lineup. The slash is .168/.265/.357. That said, there is some reason for optimism. The ISO is still .189 and the BABIP is only .167 so some good things could be on the horizon. 

OUTFIELD

  • STUD – Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,300). Copy and paste what I wrote in the Tatis Jr. section. I love the Atlanta stack too today as they get to face Carlos Martinez. The K/9 is 6.09 while the BB/9 is 3.05. He’s only allowed four home runs in 65 innings but with 40 earned runs. The Braves are projected for 5.5 runs.
  • VALUE – Billy McKinney ($3,200) bats sixth in the Mets lineup and has seven home runs and two stolen bases in 159 plate appearances. The slash is only .229/.296/.458 but the ISO is .229. He gets to face Erick Fedde who only has an 8 percent swinging strike rate.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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