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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 8, 2021

Albert Pujols
August 1, 2010 St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols (5) almost falls over the railing chasing a ball that went foul in the seventh inning. Here, teammates in the dugout support him to keep him from falling. He did not make the catch, it was too far over the edge. The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-1 in the final game of a three-game series at Busch Stadium in downtown St. Louis, MO on Sunday August 1, 2010.

We’ve got a 14-game slate for Thursday. If you’ve been reading this piece this season, I thank you and hope that it helped in your DFS venture. Unfortunately, I won’t be continuing as I have so much on my plate right now. I wish you all the best for the remainder of the season. On my last day, what do you know? We have ourselves a doozy. Jake Odorizzi is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate facing the Yankees. If you didn’t believe that we were living in a simulation, you may want to reconsider now. For the first time this season, I’m paying all the way down at both pitcher slots as Kenta Maeda and Alek Manoah are both $7,000 with very good matchups. This allowed me to fit in both of my stacks today. Hopefully, this final Friday is a good one for all of us. MIA, DET, and COL are projected for fewer than four runs. SD, MIN, CLE, BOS, and CHW are projected for at least five runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. PIT/NYM, NYY/HOU, WAS/SF, and ARI/LAD have not had their lines posted yet.

         
The PIT/NYM game has some slight weather concerns but it doesn’t look too serious as of Thursday afternoon. Keep an eye on the weather updates.    

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/8/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherKenta Maeda $7,100
 Pitcher   
 CatcherSean Murphy $4,500
 First BaseMatt Olson $5,400
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopElvis Andrus $3,400
 OutfieldNelson Cruz $5,900
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $600

Kenta Maeda ($7,100)

Maeda has regressed from the fabulous season he had last year. The schedule has something to do with that but he was also very lucky, as the BABIP was .208 with an 80.2 percent LOB rate. The FIP was 3 but it’s 4.56 this season. The walks have gone from 1.35/9 to 3.02/9. The BABIP is .330. That said, while Maeda hasn’t been as good as last season, he hasn’t been terrible either as this ridiculous price indicates. The swinging strike rate is still 13.1 percent and he’s struck out 64 batters in 62.2 innings while allowing 11 home runs and 21 walks. In his last start, he put up 35.7 DKFP. Now, he gets to face a Tigers team that is 2nd in strikeouts and 21st in ISO against right-handed pitching. Maybe the machines know something that I don’t, but this price/matchup combo is too much for me to ignore.

Sean Murphy ($4,500)

We’ve got a mini-stack against Jordan Lyles who has a 5.07 FIP, 7.27 K/9, and 1.69 HR/9. He gives it up to lefties but he’s been much more giving to righties. The HR/9 is 2.21 versus 0.96 and the batting average is .310 to righties and .252 to lefties. Against righties, Murphy has a .253/.363/.473 slash with a .219 ISO.

Matt Olson ($5,400)

Olson has 21 home runs and 56 RBI on the season. After having a strikeout rate of 31.4 percent last season and in the mid-20s the prior three seasons, that number is only 16.1 percent. The ISO is .274 while the slash is .284/.375/.557.  

Elvis Andrus ($3,400)

A three-man Athletics stack as I went full stack on another team. The puzzle fit perfectly today. Hopefully, the results are prosperous as well. Andrus bats second in the lineup. He has little power but he does have eight stolen bases and 28 runs scored in 311 plate appearances. Lyles does have reverse splits and Andrus does have more power against righties, as both of his homers have come against them.

Nelson Cruz ($5,900)

We are stacking the Twins again. Matt Manning isn’t a lefty but he’s been pretty terrible in the brief time he’s been in the bigs. In 17 innings, he’s allowed 15 earned runs, three home runs, and walked five while striking out six. The swinging strike rate has been 4.5 percent. The Tigers bullpen also has the fourth-highest FIP. While Cruz mashes lefties, the slash is still .257/.347/.515 with a .257 ISO against righties.

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PITCHER

  • STUD – I cannot pay up for any of the pitchers today. 
  • VALUE – Alek Manoah ($7,000). Manoah just faced the Rays last start and put up 37.4 DKFP. That same result probably can’t be expected since the Rays will be more familiar with him. That said, they are 4th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. In 36.2 innings so far, Manoah has a 13.4 percent swinging strike rate.

CATCHER

  • STUD – Wilson Ramos ($4,200) has a .226/.258/.462 slash with a .237 ISO against right-handed pitching. Not great, I know, but when you compare it to his .111/.172/.148 slash with a .037 ISO against lefties then it’s HALLELUJAH! Brad Keller also has reverse splits as the strikeout rate is much lower compared to against lefties, the HR/9 is 1.35, and the FIP is 5.57.
  • VALUE – Pedro Severino ($2,100) doesn’t have much power, as the ISO is .097 against lefties, but the slash is .292/.363/.389 against them. Dallas Keuchel has a 4.96 FIP and 1.26 HR/9 against righties. Severino is $2,100. End of analysis.

FIRST BASE

  • STUD – Trey Mancini ($4,300) mashes lefties to the tune of a .282/.359/.563 slash with a .282 ISO. I went over Keuchel earlier.
  • VALUE – Albert Pujols ($3,000). Bumgarner hasn’t been terrible against righties but he hasn’t been great either. The FIP is 4.36 and HR/9 is 1.42. Pujols has crushed lefties all season, as the slash is .317/.356/.634 with a .317 ISO. 

SECOND BASE

  • STUD – Marcus Semien ($5,400) has been unreal this season, as he has 21 home runs, 66 runs, 54 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. Against lefties, the slash is .281/.337/.521 with a .240 ISO, which is much different from his slash against righties. Shane McClanahan does have a high strikeout rate but the walks are high and he serves up some long balls to righties.
  • VALUE – Tony Kemp ($3,700). I touched on Jordan Lyles earlier and why I like the mini-As stack. Kemp bats leadoff and has a smidge of power and speed. He has four home runs and four stolen bases on the season. He has scored 28 runs. 

THIRD BASE

  • STUD – Manny Machado ($5,500). The batting average of .220 isn’t great against left-handed pitching but the ISO is .220. He gets to face Kyle Freeland who has a 5.88 FIP, 16.1 percent strikeout rate, and 1.98 HR.9 to righties.
  • VALUE – Nothing is standing out from a value perspective.

SHORTSTOP

  • STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100). If Tatis is on the slate, you can be sure that he will be written up here. Now he gets to face Freeland. Oh, Lordy.
  • VALUE – Didi Gregorious ($3,800). Didi is much better against righties than lefties. The slash is .231/.264/.413 with a .183 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 16.4 percent. Garrett Richards has a 4.86 FIP, 15.1 percent strikeout rate, and 1.21 HR/9 to lefties.

OUTFIELD

  • STUD – Nick Castellanos ($5,100) has 17 home runs, 56 runs, and 54 RBI. Against left-handed pitching, the slash is .317/.364/.573 with a .256 ISO. Eric Lauer sees an increase in the strikeout rate from lefties to righties but the home run rate increases as well. The FIP is 5.2 and the HR/9 is 2.13.
  • VALUE – Austin Hays ($2,900) smashes left-handed pitching as the slash is .375/.395/.639 with a .264 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 14.1 percent compared to 24.3 percent against righties. I went over Dallas Keuchel earlier.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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