DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 7, 2021

We’ve got a seven-game slate for Thursday. Like yesterday, there are two elite pitchers who are head and shoulders above the field. The face each other and the matchups aren’t particularly good. Will you care? Alek Manoah is extremely underpriced but that game has some serious weather concerns. Whether that TOR/BAL game plays or not will determine this slate. For the first time in a while, I’m paying down at pitcher today. As a result, I was able to fit in the bats I wanted. I did stay away from the TOR bats, which makes me sad, but if the weather clears up, then I will seriously think about pivoting there. KC, WAS, and SD are projected for fewer than four runs. MIN and TOR are projected for at least five runs, with a whopping 6.6 for TOR. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. PIT/NYM and PHI/CHC have not had their lines posted yet.

The KC/CLE game has some light weather concerns while the TOR/BAL is the one with serious risk.    

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/7/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Tyler Mahle ($8,700)

Mahle has been prettay, prettay good this season. The K/9 is 11.28 and the FIP is a respectable 3.65. The swinging strike rate is 12.1 percent. When he made his debut back in 2017, that number was 6.7 percent. He gets to face a Brewers team that is 5^th in strikeouts and 19^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Mahle faced the Brewers four starts ago and put up 35.3 DKFP. 

Ryan Jeffers ($3,400)

We are stacking righties against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers pen. Skubal can miss bats, as the swinging strike rate is 12.3 percent and the strikeout rate is 28.3 percent against righties. That said, the walk rate is 10.6 percent, the FIP is 5.38, and the HR/9 is 2.17. The Tigers pen has the 4^th-highest FIP and HR/9. Against left-handed pitching, Jeffers has a .308/.413/.667 slash with a .359 ISO. Is that good? Because I think that’s pretty good.

Miguel Sano ($3,600)

Sano bats seventh in the Twins lineup. Against left-handed pitching, the slash is only .186/.263/.291 with a .105 ISO but that’s in 95 plate appearances. In his career against lefties, the slash is .241/.325/.488 with a .247 ISO.

Francisco Lindor ($4,200)

Lindor struggled mightily when he first arrived in New York. A new massive contract along with changing leagues probably had some effect. Since the start of June, though, things have picked up. The walk rate has been 11.2 percent, strikeout rate has been 17.5 percent, and the ISO is at .190. He’s still not hitting for a high average, but .248 is better than the .219 season average. He faces JT Brubaker, who does have reverse splits but still gives it up to lefties.

Nelson Cruz ($5,600)

There’s no way I’m leaving Cruz off a Twins stack against a lefty. The slash is .387/.436/.645 with a .258 ISO against them. Nom nom nom.

PITCHER

• STUD – Max Scherzer ($10,400). The matchup isn’t great as the Padres are 28^th in strikeouts and 14^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. That said, Scherzer is no normal righty, as he has a 16.7 percent swinging strike rate. He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in each of the last three starts.
• VALUE – JA Happ ($5,700). There’s a reason why he’s priced down here. The FIP is 5.44, the swinging-strike rate is 8 percent, and he’s allowed 16 home runs in 75.1 innings. That said, he gets THE best matchup for a left-handed pitcher, as the Tigers are 1^st in strikeouts and 26^th in ISO.

CATCHER

• STUD – Salvador Perez ($4,600) has 20 home runs and 51 RBI on the season. The slash is .281/.307/.509 with a .228 ISO. He is much better against lefties, but the ISO is still .169 against righties. Zach Plesac has a 5.12 FIP, 1.89 HR/9, and 15 percent strikeout rate against righties. The BABIP is also .196 so those numbers could be worse.
• VALUE – Tucker Barnhardt ($3,300). Adrian Houser isn’t a bad pitcher but he isn’t great either. The K/9 is 6.29 and FIP is 4.42 to lefties. Barnhardt isn’t a great hitter period but the slash is .288/.380/.436 with a .147 ISO against righties.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Pete Alonso ($5,000). I touched on the reverse splits for Brubaker earlier. Against right-handed pitching, Alonso has a .260/.332/.448 slash with a .188 ISO. He has much more power against lefties but he still mashes righties.
• VALUE – I don’t like any of the value at first base.

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Whit Merrifield ($4,600). It’s kind of freaky how similar the splits are for Merrifield. .281/.337/.427 with a .146 ISO against lefties and a .279/.332/.421 slash with a .142 ISO against righties. Anyways, while he only has eight home runs on the season, he has 23 stolen bases. Zach Plesac has a 5.12 FIP and 15 percent strikeout rate to righties.
• VALUE – None of the value at second base stands out to me.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Eugenio Suarez ($4,200). I don’t really like the high-priced options at third base today so Suarez it is. He has a ton of swing and miss to his game but the power is real. Against right-handed pitching, he strikes out 29 percent and the average is .197 but the ISO is .214. Adrian Houser has a 4.79 FIP and 1.31 HR/9 to righties.
• VALUE – Jonathan Villar ($3,600). I’m not crazy about the value options either but I can live with Villar. He has a little pop to this game and can steal bases, so multiple paths to fantasy goodies. He does bat lower in the lineup, so that stinks, but he’s sub-$4,000. I kind of like a Mets stack today.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100). Tatis is good. EZ PZ. Well, today is a little more difficult because he faces Max Scherzer. That said, Mad Max has been prone to the long ball, especially to righties. The HR/9 is 1.82 against them. Tatis also has juice on the base paths.
• VALUE – I don’t like the value at shortstop

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Jesse Winker ($5,300). Adrian Houser has a 4.79 FIP, 7.69 K/9, and 1.31 HR/9 against righties. Winker has a .348/.422/.670 slash with a .321 ISO against righties! 1+1=2.
• VALUE – Michael Conforto ($3,200) has really struggled this season but he’s not this bad. He hit 27, 28, and 33 home runs in three consecutive season while batting in the .240 to .260 range a few years ago. The slash is .207/.341/.293 this season with a .087 ISO but against righties, he’s at .222/.341/.333 with a .111 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 17.8 percent while the walk rate is a robust 14 percent. He’s going to get going at some point and I do like the Mets stack today. Why not today?

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.