DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 7, 2021

By Stan Son
         

We’ve got a nine-game slate for Wednesday. There are two elite pitcher that are head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Unfortunately, one of them is dealing with a knee issue. No one stands out to me for that second pitching slot so I’m going a little risky, but maybe it’s not as risky as it appears? Since paying up at both pitching slots, the money left for bats was tight but I was able to fit in my favorite stack. PHI, CHC, STL, and WAS are projected for fewer than four runs. TOR is projected for at least five runs, with a total at a whopping 6.4. No teams projected for fewer than three runs. COL/ARI, LAD/MIA, and MIL/NYM have not had their lines posted yet.

There is some weather concern in the PHI/CHC game.   

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/7/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Zack Wheeler ($10,300)

Wheeler has a 2.28 FIP and 12.7 percent swinging strike rate. He’s struck out 139 batters in 114 innings while only allowing seven home runs and 25 walks. He gets to face a Cubs team that is 1^st in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. He’s scored at least 30 DKFP in the last two games.

Martin Maldonado ($2,200)

Maldonado kind of sucks. The strikeout rate is 31.4 percent and the slash is .181/.269/.296. Against left-handed pitching, though, the slash is .257/.297/.471 with a .214 ISO. Sean Manaea has done a good job limiting the long ball against righties but the strikeout rate goes from 34.4 percent against lefties to 22.2 percent against righties while the batting goes from .178 to .277. Hey, he’s cheap and we are hoping to luck into a home run. We need the salary since we paid up at pitcher.

LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3,400)

We are stacking the Giants against Johan Oviedo, who has a 5.28 FIP, 6.8 K/9, and 4.78 BB/9. Against right-handed pitching, Wade has a .296/.364/.571 slash with a .276 ISO and he bats leadoff.

Brandon Crawford ($5,200)

Bats fifth for the Giants. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .286/.375/.571 with a .286 ISO. 

Mike Yastrzemski ($5,000)

Bats second for the Giants. Against righties, the slash is .247/.348/.563 with a .316 ISO. The Giants as a team are 1^st in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

PITCHER

• STUD – Corbin Burnes  ($10,500). Tons of risk here as Burnes has been dealing with knee soreness. If you are in “no risk it, no biscuit” mood then roll with one of the best pitchers on the slate. When healthy. The FIP is 1.44 and swinging strike rate is 16.7 percent. He’s struck out 120 batters in 82 innings while only allowing three home runs and 15 walks. 
• VALUE – I don’t like any of the value pitchers.

CATCHER

• STUD – Omar Narvaez ($5,000). Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .324/.412/.500 with a .176 slash. He gets to face Robert Stock who has four MLB innings to his name and has allowed one home run, six walks, and five earned runs during that span. 
• VALUE – Martin Maldonado ($2,200)

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,200) demolishes right-handed pitching. The slash is .356/.434/.725 with a .369 ISO. He faces Matt Harvey. Oh, Lordy. 
• VALUE – Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900) has a .293/.344/.500 slash with a .207 against left-handed pitching. He bats cleanup and will face Hyun Jin Ryu, who has a 1.46 HR/9 and 4.43 FIP to righties.

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Marcus Semien ($5,600) is just crushing everyone and everything this season. He has 21 home runs, 63 runs, 54 RBI, and 10 stolen bases on the season. The slash is .286/.349/.542 with a .256 ISO. He gets to face Harvey. Yummy. It’s great that I haven’t had to change anything for the last three players since they all have fantastic matchups two nights in a row.
• VALUE – Jace Peterson ($4,100) has a .247/.371/.444 slash with a .198 ISO against right-handed pitching. He bats sixth for the Brewers and I already went over Robert Stock.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Manny Machado ($5,700). Machado has 15 home runs, 57 RBI, and nine stolen bases. The walk rate is 12.2 percent while the strikeout rate is only 16.7 percent. The ISO is .216. He gets to face Patrick Corbin who has a 5.94 FIP and 2.14 HR/9 to righties. 
• VALUE – Wilmer Flores ($4,200) used to be a “lefty masher” but he’s been better against righties this season, at least from a power perspective. The ISO is .207 against righties. I went over Oviedo earlier and the Giants stack is alive and well.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100). Tatis is good. EZ PZ. And he faces Corbin who I touched on earlier.
• VALUE – Gavin Lux ($2,700) bats seventh in the order, which sucks, but he’s $2,700, which is muy bueno. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .268/.341/.432 with a .164 ISO.

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Christian Yelich ($5,400). I guess a Brewers stack is in order today. Yelich hasn’t been the Yelich we’ve come to know and love, as the strikeout rate is elevated and the power isn’t what it once was. The walk rate, though, is 21.4 percent against righties. Yipee…..That said, he does bat in the middle of the order and the ISO is still .145 so all the power hasn’t been sucked away. I just like the matchup.
• VALUE – Austin Hays ($3,000) bats second for the Orioles and faces Ryu, who I went over earlier. Against left-handed pitching, Hays has a .358/.386/.612 slash with a .254 ISO. That is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.