DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 6, 2021

We’ve got a 15-game slate for Tuesday. Jacob deGrom is on the slate so you know what we are doing but there are plenty of options up top if you want to go in a different direction. I wasn’t enamored with the cheaper pitchers, which means there are plenty of good stacks. They cost money, though. I’m allocating a significant portion of the budget to pitching once again and am rolling with a cheap stack that makes me want to vomit. PIT, MIL, MIA, DET, OAK, and STL are projected for fewer than four runs. NYY, PHI, TEX, and TB are projected for at least five runs. MIL is projected for fewer than three runs. TOR/BAL and CIN/KC have not had their lines posted yet.

         
There are some light weather concerns in the MIL/NYM and CHW/MIN games.  

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/6/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. In the universe. They need to make a Space Kam movie. The FIP is a ridiculous 0.99 and the swinging strike rate is 21.7 percent. He faces a Brewers team that is 7^th in strikeouts and 16^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. deGrom has produced at least 30 DKFP in seven starts with a high of 58.05. That is stupid.

JT Realmuto ($3,700)

We are stacking the Phillies against Jake Arrieta today. It’s a cheap stack, especially since we are not including Bryce Harper but sacrifices need to be made if rostering the Bank of deGrom. Arrieta gives it up to both lefties and righties. The FIP is 5.84 and the HR/9 is 1.98. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 7.7 percent. Realmuto has eight home runs, 31 RBI, and four stolen bases on the season with a .263/.359/.446 slash and a .183 ISO.

Luke Voit ($4,200)

Voit has really struggled this season. He is recovering from an injury and only notched 100 plate appearances. In his career against left-handed pitching, the slash is .254/.330/.515 with a .261 ISO. He will get going at some point. He gets to face Justus Sheffield today who has a 5.54 FIP and 1.8 HR/9 to righties.

Didi Gregorius ($3,600)

Cheap Phillies stack. Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .242/.277/.411 with a .168 ISO. The strikeout rate is only 16.8 percent. That ain’t bad, yo.

Andrew McCutchen ($3,500)

I didn’t lie when I told you we stacking the Phillies. McCutchen has 13 home runs, 42 runs, 41 RBI, and six stolen bases on the season. The slash is .227/.350/.422 with a .195 ISO. The walk rate is a robust 15.6 percent while the strikeout rate is a palatable 22.3 percent. 

PITCHER

• STUD – Aaron Nola ($10,000). Tons of risk here as Nola has been prone to some bad outings, whether it be the matchup or just not getting the proper feel for his pitches. The Cubs have a lot of power bats too. That said, they are 1^st in strikeouts to right-handed pitching and Nola can get his whiff on any given night. He has 30-DKFP upside.
• VALUE – Jon Gray ($7,300). I’m not crazy about this play but it’s intriguing for sure. Gray is out of Coors Field. While the strikeout rate decreases, the FIP goes from 4.69 to 3.66. He does have a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate. ARI is 13^th in strikeouts and 29^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

CATCHER

• STUD – Gary Sanchez ($5,100). I went over Justus Sheffied earlier. Sanchez has a .276/.364/.517 slash with a .241 ISO against lefties. 
• VALUE – James McCann ($3,600) strikes out over 30 percent of the time but the slash is .278/.361/.599 with a .222 ISO against left-handed pitching. Brett Anderson has a 5.54 K/9, 1.15 HR/9, and 4.59 FIP against righties.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,200) demolishes right-handed pitching. The slash is .356/.434/.725 with a .369 ISO. He faces righty Dean Kremer who has a 6.52 FIP and 2.54 HR/9.
• VALUE – Ryan Mountcastle ($3,900) has a .293/.344/.500 slash with a .207 against left-handed pitching. He bats cleanup and will face Steven Matz, who has a 1.36 HR/9 and 4.34 FIP to righties.

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Marcus Semien ($5,600) is just crushing everyone and everything this season. He has 21 home runs, 63 runs, 54 RBI, and 10 stolen bases on the season. The slash is .286/.349/.542 with a .256 ISO. He gets to face Dean Kramer. Yummy. 
• VALUE – Christian Arroyo ($2,800) was activated from the IL yesterday and hit a home run. He bats toward the bottom of the lineup, but the Red Sox are a potent offensive team. Now, they do have to face Shohei Ohtani, but he sometimes struggles with control and couldn’t make it out of the first inning last start. Once he’s out of the game, the Angels bullpen has the 8^th-highest FIP. Prior to going down with an injury, Arroyo had four home runs, 19 RBI, and one stolen base. The strikeout rate was 27.5 percent and the slash was .264/.324/.432 with a .168 ISO.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Manny Machado ($5,700). Machado has 15 home runs, 57 RBI, and nine stolen bases. The walk rate is 11.7 percent while the strikeout rate is only 16.7 percent. The ISO is .218. He gets to face Jefry Rodriguez, who has eight MLB innings to his name and has allowed a home run and six walks. The swinging strike rate is 8.1 percent. 
• VALUE – Kyle Seager ($3,800) doesn’t bat for a high average but he has some pop. The ISO is .215 against righties and he has 15 home runs on the season. Jameson Taillon has a 6 FIP and 2.59 HR/9 against lefties.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100). Tatis is good. EZ PZ. 
• VALUE – JP Crawford ($3,900) doesn’t have much pop but he doesn’t strikeout often, draws walks, steals bases, and bats leadoff. In the last five games, he’s scored at least 13 DKFP in three of those contests.

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Nick Castellanos ($5,700) smashes both lefties and righties. The ISO is .248 and the slash is .338/.392/.587. He has 16 home runs, 54 runs, and 53 RBI. He gets to face Kris Bubic who has a 5.92 FIP and 1.94 HR/9 against righties.
• VALUE – Austin Hays ($3,000) bats second for the Orioles and faces Steven Matz, who I went over earlier. Against left-handed pitching, Hays has a .358/.386/.612 slash with a .254 ISO. That is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.