DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 5, 2021

Hope everyone had a good holiday weekend. USA! USA! USA! We’ve got a nine-game slate for Monday. I’m paying for the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I don’t care. He’s amazing and he faces the not-so-amazing Mets. Two stacks really stood out to me, especially since they are cheap. I did pay down at the second pitching slot, and I feel gross about it, but the matchup is good and he’s not that bad. At least that’s what I tell myself. PIT, NYM, CLE, and WAS are projected for fewer than four runs. LAA, BOS, KC, TEX, TB, MIN, CHW, and ATL are projected for at least five runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. PHI/CHC have not had their lines posted yet.

Things look good on the weather front. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/5/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $400

Brandon Woodruff ($10,400)

Woodruff has a 2.79 FIP and 12.2 swinging strike rate. He’s only allowed nine home runs in 101 innings. Translation: he good. Now he faces a Mets team that is 27^th in ISO against right-handed pitching and 29^th in runs scored.

Tyler Stephenson ($4,100)

I like the Reds stack today. Mike Minor is pitching for the Royals and the bullpen has the fifth-highest FIP. Against righties, Minor has a 4.51 FIP and 1.54 HR/9. The strikeout rate of 22 percent is over seven percent lower than against lefties. Stephenson has a .246 ISO against left-handed pitching and only strikes out 13.4 percent against them.

Nate Lowe ($4,700)

Lowe has a .182 ISO against right-handed pitching. Wily Peralta has a 3.86 K/9, 3.86 HR/9, and 9.8 FIP against lefties. Granted, the sample size is small at 4.2 innings but still. In addition, the DET bullpen has the sixth-highest FIP.

Kyle Farmer ($3,300)

Farmer bats in front of the pitcher, so that stinks, but we are stacking against the Royals pitching staff. Plus, he’s cheap. That said, Farmer has a .250/.340/.409 slash with a .159 ISO against lefties compared to .208/.267/.301 against righties.

Nick Castellanos ($5,400)

Castellanos is an equal opportunity masher, as he pounds both righties and lefties. On the season, he has 16 home runs and 53 RBI. The slash is .340/.394/.592 with a .252 ISO and 20.9 percent strikeout rate.

PITCHER

• STUD – Max Fried ($8,500). In 62.2 innings, Fried has a 3.92 FIP and 11.6 percent swinging strike rate. He’s struck out 62, walked 22, and allowed seven home runs. Not terrible, but not great either. If this was the Three Little Bears story, then the porridge is just right. He gets to face the Pirates who are 30^th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Fried faced them seven starts ago and went seven innings and allowed one earned run. He only struck out two but it was good for 17.6 DKFP.
• VALUE – Kolby Allard ($7,900). He’s not cheap and he’s not that great either, but the matchup is a good one and he’s the one I feel most comfortable with. The swinging strike rate is 10 percent and the FIP is 3.65. He’s struck out 49, walked 11, and given up seven home runs in 52 innings. He gets to face the Tigers who are 1^st in strikeouts and 29^th in ISO against left-handed pitching. 

CATCHER

• STUD – Willson Contreras ($4,800) has a .314/.364/.600 slash with a .286 ISO against left-handed pitching. Matt Moore is a lefty who has a 6.56 FIP and 2.45 HR/9 against righties. Yummy.  
• VALUE – Roberto Perez ($2,000) is the stone minimum and has a .346 ISO against left-handed pitching. Now, the sample size is only 34 plate appearances and the average is only .192 but he’s cheap and Rich Hill allows 1.55 HR/9 to righties.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Shohei Ohtani ($6,200). The ISO is over .400 against both righties and lefties. WHAT??!!! He has 30 home runs, 59 runs, 66 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. Matchup and price don’t matter. Just bow down and pay your respects.
• VALUE – Yandy Diaz ($3,800). I feel gross writing up Diaz because the ISO is .068. Against lefties, though, it at least ticks up to .093. Sad. He does have three home runs on the season and he could get his fourth today. Logan Allen is very generous in that respect and has a 3.78 HR/9 to righties. The FIP is 8.91. Yes, the sample size is only 16.2 innings but still. 

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Jonathan Schoop ($5,600) has a .296/.345/.580 slash with a .284 ISO against left-handed pitching. I do like Allard somewhat today but he has been known to give up a tater or two to righties. The HR/9 is 1.42 against them.
• VALUE – I don’t like the value at second base today.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Manny Machado ($5,400). Machado has 13 home runs, 52 RBI, and nine stolen bases. The walk rate is 11 percent while the strikeout rate is only 16.9 percent. The ISO is .198. Against lefties, the ISO is .232. The batting average is only .196 but he’s had plenty of bad luck as the BABIP is only .179. Jon Lester has a 6.45 FIP and 2.21 HR/9 to righties.
• VALUE – Austin Riley ($4,200) bats cleanup for the Braves. Against righties, he has a .275/.371/.469 slash with a .194 ISO. Chase De Jong has a 6.32 FIP and 3.00 HR/9 to righties this season in 12 innings.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,100). Tatis good. EZ PZ. Plus, Jon Lester bad.
• VALUE – Dansby Swanson ($3,900) hits lefties better than righties but the ISO is still .174 against righties. I went over De Jong earlier.

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,900). Acuna good. EZ PZ. DFS is an easy game. Ha! 
• VALUE – David Dahl ($2,300) isn’t having a great season and is batting seventh for the Rangers. I went over Peralta earlier. Against righties, Dahl has a .238/.264/.400 slash with a .162 ISO. That ain’t bad for the price.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.