DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 2, 2021

We’ve got a 14-game slate for Friday. Coors Field is on the slate and there are some studs at pitching. For the first time in what seems like forever, I feel good paying down at both pitcher slots. Unfortunately, they face off against each other. That said, there are plenty of stacks today and I want one. DET, BAL, and ARI are projected for fewer than four runs. STL, COL, LAA, MIN, KC, ATL, HOU, CIN, and NYY are projected for at least five runs, with STL and COL at least 6 runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. TB/TOR have not had their lines posted yet.

NYM/NYY and TB/TOR have risk of rain with the TB/TOR game more serious. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/2/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $400

Logan Gilbert ($6,600)

Gilbert has a respectable 3.71 FIP and 12.5 percent swinging strike rate. He doesn’t issue many walks or serve up gopher balls at a high rate. Now he faces a Rangers team that is 10^th in strikeouts and 19^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Salvador Perez ($5,100)

We are stacking against JA Happ and the Twins bullpen. In particular, the right-handed bats for the Royals as Happ has a 17.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.79 FIP, and 2.05 HR/9 against righties. Perez has a .329/.361/.722 slash with a .392 ISO against left-handed pitching. Is that good?

Carlos Santana ($4,300)

Santana has a .316/.382/.468 slash with a .152 ISO against left-handed pitching. He only strikes out 10.1 percent of the time against them.

Paul DeJong ($3,400)

DeJong doesn’t hit for a high average but he takes his walks and still has pop. The ISO is .188 against right-handed pitching. He is now in Coors Field and gets to face Chi Chi Rodriguez who has a 5.23 K/9, 1.93 HR/9, and 5.52 against righties.

Jorge Soler ($3,400)

Soler strikes out a ton. Like 31.2 percent of the time against lefties. He also doesn’t hit for average and the ISO is .091 against them. That said, he’s batting second in the order now and is part of the Royals stack. In his career against left-handed pitching, the ISO is .200. He’s due!

PITCHER

• STUD – Lance Lynn ($9,700). Lynn has a 12.6 percent swinging strike rate and 3.11 FIP. He’s struck out 90 batters in 78.2 innings while only allowing eight home runs. The Tigers are 2^ndin strikeouts and 18^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
• VALUE – Logan Gilbert ($6,600). I went over him above.

CATCHER

• STUD – Yadier Molina ($4,500). In Coors Field and gets to face Chi Chi Gonzalez. The Rockies bullpen also has the highest FIP in the league. 
• VALUE – Jorge Alfaro ($2,800). Alfaro strikes out 32.4 percent of the time against lefties but the ISO is .176 against them compared to .044 against righties. Drew Smyly has a 17.6 percent strikeout rate against righties with a 5.27 FIP and 1.64 HR/9.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Yuli Gurriel ($5,100) has a .343/.400/.600 slash with a .257 ISO against left-handed pitching. Sam Hentges has a 5.67 FIP, 5.47 BB/9, and 2.05 HR/9 against righties.
• VALUE – Garrett Cooper ($3,200) has a .288/.339/.500 slash with a .212 ISO against lefties. He faces lefty Drew Smyly. Make sure he’s in the lineup, though, as he and Jesus Aguilar have been splitting first base duties. 

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Jose Altuve ($5,800) smashed a grand slam last night and gets another good matchup against Sam Hentges. Against left-handed pitching this season, Altuve has a .321/.378/.462 slash with a .142 ISO.
• VALUE – Adam Frazier ($4,200) doesn’t have a ton of pop and the ISO is only .112 against righties, but the strikeout rate is only 9.6 percent and the slash is .335/.400/.446. He bats leadoff for the Pirates and Adrian Houser has a 15.4 percent strikeout rate against lefties.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Nolan Arenado ($5,800). In Coors Field and facing Chi Chi Gonzalez. Yummy.
• VALUE – Luis Arraez ($3,800) bats leadoff for the Twins. The slash is a respectable .283/.354/.369 but the ISO is only .086. He only strikes out 10.4 percent of the time and the Twins are projected for five runs.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Trevor Story ($5,800). Against righties, Story has a .263/.342/.440 slash with a .177 ISO. At home, the slash is .321/.377/.511 with a .190 ISO. Johan Oviedo is better against righties than lefties but the FIP is still 4.78 and the HR/9 is 1.29. Welcome to Colorado.
• VALUE – I don’t like the value at shortstop.

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Jesse Winker ($5,100). Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .313/.404/.559 with a .246 ISO. He has 19 home runs, 56 runs, and 48 RBI on the season. Alec Mills has a 5.81 FIP, 1.26 HR/9, and 5.65 K/9 against lefties.
• VALUE – Myles Straw ($3,000) isn’t a power threat as the ISO is only .065 but he has 12 stolen bases and has scored 34 runs. He walks 10.4 percent of the time and the strikeout rate is only 18.4 percent. He will likely bat second in the lineup for an Astros team that is projected to score 5.3 runs and faces Sam Hentges.  

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.