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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 7, 2021

Shane Bieber DFS
CLEVELAND, OH - APRIL 05: Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (57) is introduced prior to the Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians on April 5, 2021, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got a 10-game slate with early morning baseball. Life doesn’t get much better than this. We need morning baseball every day. There are a ton of studs at pitcher this slate with plenty of good mid-tier options as well. Who are we picking on for bats?

As for weather, there could be some issues in Chicago, as the chance for rain is in the 50% range. Winds are also blowing out to left at 11 mph.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/7/21 (using DraftKings Values

 PitcherShane Bieber $10,600
 Pitcher   
 CatcherYermin Mercedes $4,100
 First BaseRowdy Tellez $3,500
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopLeury Garcia $3,600
 OutfieldBen Gamel $3,000
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $600

Shane Bieber ($10,600)

In 77.1 innings last season, Bieber had a strikeout rate of 41.4 percent. The swinging strike rate was 17.1 percent. Those are ridiculous numbers. The FIP was 2.07. Now, Bieber benefitted from the schedule last year as most of the matchups were against the inept teams in the AL Central, but he is still one of the premier pitchers in the game. He matches up against the Royals who are 14th in strikeout rate and 27th in ISO. Last season, Bieber pitched 12 innings against the Royals, allowed five hits with zero earned runs, and struck out 23 batters.

Yermin Mercedes ($4,100)

I’m going back to the well with Mercedes despite the $600 increase in his price. Yes, he’s off to a blistering start racking up 12 hits in 19 plate appearances but that’s not the only reason. He’s always been a good hitter in the minors and the plate discipline is very good. Although he’s a pull hitter, he doesn’t sell out and refines his approach with two-strikes, willing to go the opposite way. He now gets to face Justin Dunn, who had a 6.54 FIP, 1.97 HR/9, 7.49 K/9, and 6.11 BB/9 in 45.2 innings last season. 

Rowdy Tellez ($3,500)

Tellez has tremendous power as he’s sported an ISO above .200 in each of the three prior seasons. He gets to face off against Kyle Gibson who posted a 7.75 K/9, 4.01 BB/9, 1.6 HR/9, and 5.39 FIP in 67.1 innings last season. Tellez has some swing and miss to his game but Gibson posted a 9 percent swinging strike rate. If he can connect, then there’s a good chance it’s going bye bye.

Leury Garcia ($3,600)

Garcia was the last piece of the puzzle. He doesn’t have much power and I don’t particularly like him but he will likely bat right behind Mercedes, providing a mini-stack against a pitcher that I want to pick on.

Ben Gamel ($3,000)

He’s cheap, batting leadoff, and facing a pitcher that I most want to attack today. Jakob Junis had a 6.23 FIP, 6.75 K/9, and 2.49 HR/9 in 25.1 innings last season. The numbers were better in 2019 but the FIP was still 4.82 while the HR/9 was 1.59. 

Now what do you get if you sign up now?
• Seven days free trial to read every and ALL of our content.
 • Full lineup support for the 50-50 lineup above
• A more risky full lineup for a GPP. 
• A number of alternative picks that you mix in for some variations on your core lineups.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherShane Bieber $10,600
 PitcherJack Flaherty $7,800
 CatcherYermin Mercedes $4,100
 First BaseRowdy Tellez $3,500
 Second BaseKike Hernandez $3,900
 Third BaseJose Ramirez $5,700
 Short StopLeury Garcia $3,600
 OutfieldBen Gamel $3,000
 OutfieldJosh Naylor $2,600
 OutfieldEddie Rosario $4,600
  
  

Salary Remaining          $600

Jack Flaherty ($7,800)

Flaherty got rocked in his first start of the season, allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings. That’s probably why his price is so cheap, which is good for us because Flaherty is a good pitcher. Over the prior three seasons, the K/9 was over 10, HR/9 was below 1.35, and FIP was 3.86, 3.46, and 4.11. He gets to face a Marlins team that is 6th in strikeouts and 30th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Kike Hernandez ($3,900)

Ryan Yarbrough is a decent pitcher, as he posted a 3.8 FIP in 2020 but only had a 7.11 K/9. Hernandez is batting leadoff for the Red Sox and has been a lefty masher for most of his career, sporting a .210 ISO against them compared to .163 versus righties. 

Jose Ramirez ($5,700)

Ramirez is one of the best hitters in all of baseball. He has power, speed, will hit for average, and possesses excellent plate discipline. I want to pick on Junis today so I’m going with an Indian stack.

Josh Naylor ($2,600)

Naylor has a little pop to his game but he’s in the lineup because he’s super cheap and Junis is the pitcher I want to attack today. He allows a .261 ISO to left-handed bats with an exit velocity of 92 mph.

Eddie Rosario ($4,600)

Rosario has good pop in the bat and possesses excellent plate discipline like Jose Ramirez. He’s batting right behind Ramirez in the lineup and he’s part of the Cleveland stack to pick on Junis.

Alternative Moves…

Will Smith – C ($4,700 DK) Smith posted a .289 ISO in 137 plate appearances last season. In 2019, the ISO was .318. He’s an excellent hitter who has good plate discipline. The main issue for Smith is playing time but he should bat fifth today against Jesus Luzardo who allows a .229 ISO to right-handed bats. 

Kenta Maeda – P ($8,300 DK) Detroit is 1st in strikeout rate and 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Maeda posted a 10.8 K/9 last season and a 3 FIP. In 17 innings versus the Tigers last season, Maeda allowed 12 hits, nine earned runs, and struck out 25 batters.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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