DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 6, 2021

We’ve got four pitching studs (Tyler Glasnow, Yu Darvish, Lucas Giolito, and Clayton Kershaw) on this slate with some decent mid-tier options. Coors Field also makes an appearance. Darvish with bats from that game will be the likely lineup construction. I am intrigued by the TOR/TEX game as well. Let’s see if we can find a cheap pitcher with some value to make things work.

As for weather, there could be fireworks in Texas if the pitchers cooperate. 80 degrees with winds blowing out to left at 18 mile per hour.  

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/6/21 (using DraftKings Values

Salary Remaining          $200

Lucas Giolito ($9,300)

Giolito has had a K/9 over 10 in each of the last three seasons. Granted, he only pitched 5.1 innings last year. Steamer has him projected for a 10.86 K/9 this season. He does run into control issues at times but his ability to miss bats is elite. In 2019, the swinging strike rate was 15 percent. In 2020, that number was 17.3 percent. Over the last three seasons, the Mariners are fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and have been 17^th in ISO. The matchup is a good one and the salary savings from Darvish is enticing.

Yermin Mercedes ($3,500)

Mercedes has a .643/.643/.1.000 slash to start the season. He’s obviously not going to keep this pace and regression will come. With that said, it’s still early in the season and pitchers will need more time to figure out his weaknesses and expose them. Throughout his minor league career, Mercedes has been a good hitter, never posting a strikeout rate above 20 percent and batting for a high average. He’s clubbed double-digit home runs in four minor league seasons. He will likely bat fifth in the order and will face James Paxton, who can still miss bats but isn’t as dominant as he once was. He has also been susceptible to the long ball as his career has progressed.

C.J. Cron ($3,700)

Cron has tremendous power (projected .204 ISO) and will likely bat fifth in a game at Coors Field against Luke Weaver. In 52 innings last season, Weaver allowed 1.73 HR/9. Steamer has him projected for 1.39 this season. 

Francisco Lindor ($4,800)

Lindor bats second and is a phenomenal hitter. He rarely strikes out, he takes his walks, and is able to drive the ball out of the park. He also has stolen base equity despite being in the 65^th percentile for sprint speed. Chase Anderson is a decent pitcher but he’s been susceptible to the long ball as well. 

Randy Arozarena ($4,900)

We know what Arozarena can do from a power perspective. While he has yet to go yard this season, it’s only been eight plate appearances. Geez, Randy. Get it together. He is batting third in the lineup and gets to face lefty Martin Perez, who had a K-BB percentage of 6.9 last season with an 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. In his young career, Arozarena has mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a ridiculous .542 ISO.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $200

Adbert Alzolay ($7,400)

Alzolay is 26 years old but has only 33.2 innings of experience. The control is definitely an issue, as he posted BB/9 numbers of 6.57 and 5.48 over the last two seasons. Steamer has him projected for a 4.3 mark. He struck out 12.23 batters per nine innings in 21.1 innings last season, though. Yummy. Now he faces a Brewers team that has been third in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. There’s certainly risk here if he can’t find the plate, but the matchup and upside are worth it.

Josh Rojas ($3,900)

With Nick Ahmed placed on the 10-day injured list, Rojas will take his place and likely bat leadoff. In Coors Field. He’s not a high average or OBP player, but he takes his walks and doesn’t strike out an egregious amount. Did I mention that he will likely bat leadoff in Coors?

Vlad Guerrero Jr. ($4,400)

Vlad lost 40 pounds and entered this season the best shape of his life! We usually dismiss such things but we shouldn’t when it comes from a player of Vlad’s pedigree and caliber. He’s gotten off to a hot start and is among the league leaders in exit velocity. Vlad has power, plate discipline, and hits for a high average.  Now, Dane Dunning isn’t a gas can but he isn’t among the elite in the game. In addition, it’s going to be warm in Texas with the wind blowing out to left field.

Joey Gallo ($4,200)

Gallo is one of the preeminent power bats in the game. There’s a ton of swing and miss to his game, but when he connects, it’s boom shakalaka. Steamer has Gallo projected for a .266 ISO. It’s going to be warm in Texas with the wind blowing out, and Tanner Roark will be pitching batting practic…..I kid. Sort of. In 47.2 innings last season, Roark had a K-BB percentage of 8.2 percent and allowed 2.64 HR/9. 

David Dahl ($3,500)

We were always waiting for greatness from Dahl while he was in Colorado. Unfortunately, it never manifested and he is now in Texas with the Rangers. He’s gotten off to a good start and will likely bat second in the batting order against Roark, who I just went over in the Gallo blurb.

Alternative Moves…

Ketel Marte – OF ($4,600 DK) Marte has been en fuego to start the season, clubbing two home runs in 18 plate appearances. The slash is .563/.611/.1.063 with a .500 ISO, 11.1 percent walk rate, and 11.1 percent strike out rate. He struggled last season in the weird COVID-ravaged season, but let’s not forget that he clubbed 32 home runs with a .329/.389/.592 slash in 2019. Now he get to play in Coors.

Freddy Peralta – P ($7,600 DK) Peralta has excellent swing and miss stuff in the arsenal. He has a career 12.6 percent swinging strike rate. The K/9 has been 11.03, 12.18, and 14.42 in the first three seasons of his MLB career. He walks a ton of batters, hence the risk. The reward is fantastic, though. The Cubs are 10^th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching but are 6^th in ISO.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.