DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 29, 2021

We’ve got a five-game slate for Thursday. Going from a 13-game slate down to five takes some time getting used to. The player pool is obviously much smaller and there are fewer paths to victory. I was all set with my lineup but then two things happened. Dylan Cease, who was my cheaper second pitcher was scrubbed from the slate. Then, I was digging into one of the pitchers I wanted to attack and the more I looked, the more I didn’t want to stack against him. Coincidentally, his price fit perfectly after I pivoted to another stack so I feel good using him now. What can go wrong? There are two teams projected for fewer than four runs (MIL and DET). There is one team projected for at least five runs (ARI). There is no team projected for fewer than three runs. The CHC/ATL and COL/ARI games haven’t had their game totals released as of the time of this writing. 

Clear skies all throughout the slate. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/29/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Trevor Bauer ($11,300)

Bauer is the best pitcher on the slate. And the most expensive. The swinging strike rate is 14.2 percent and he’s struck out 45 batters in 32 innings. He has given up six home runs, though, and he’s been very fortunate, as the BABIP is .150 and the LOB percentage is 89 percent. With that said, he is facing a Brewers team that is 4^th in strikeouts and 20^th in ISO against right-handed pitching, and is still without Christian Yelich.

Carson Kelly ($4,700)

We are attacking Antonio Senzatela and the Rockies bullpen. Senzatela has a 7.4 percent swinging strike rate and 5.16 FIP. He’s struck out 15 batters in 25 innings while allowing 16 earned runs with four home runs. The Rockies bullpen has the seventh-highest FIP. Kelly has been a beast to start the season. He has six home runs and a .426 ISO. The walk rate is 21.5 percent while the strikeout rate is only 15.4 percent. 

Bobby Dalbec ($3,400)

Dalbec was one of the last pieces to fit in. He hits eighth in the order, so that stinks, but he did homer on Tuesday. Kyle Gibson has been good to start the season as he has a 2.38 FIP but the Rangers bullpen has the eighth-highest FIP.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa ($3,900)

Martin Perez has always had difficult with righties, as the FIP is 4.84 compared to 3.72 against lefties. The strikeout rate decrease six percent as well. Kiner-Falefa doesn’t have much pop but he does have two home runs on the season. He does have good plate disciple and four steals on the season so there are multiple paths to scoring those fantasy goodies. 

David Peralta ($5,000)

It feels gross paying up for Peralta, as the slash is .253/.319/.458 with a .205 ISO. Then I look at Senzatela’s numbers and the Rockies bullpen and then think to myself that it’s not too bad. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/29/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Adbert Alzolay ($7,200)

Initially, I was going to stack against Alzolay because the Braves are 25^th in strikeouts and 2^nd in ISO against right-handed pitching. Then I dug in and I actually liked what I saw. The swinging strike rate is 14.5 percent and FIP is 3.54. The BABIP is low at .212 but the LOB percentage is only 44.6 percent. He’s only allowed two home runs in 15 innings and walked five while striking out 17. Could he get blown up? Sure, the Braves are good but I think there’s a chance he neutralizes them. It’s baseball and hitting one is very difficult.

Eduardo Escobar ($4,400)

The slash is only .233/.302/.523 but the BABIP is a low .213, so good fortune is on the horizon. The plate discipline numbers are good with a 9.4 percent walk rate and 19.8 percent strikeout. It’s all about the power and Escobar has a .291 ISO which has translated to seven home runs. He’s also chipped in a steal. We are attacking the Rockies pitching staff today.

Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,600)

Cabrera doesn’t have the power numbers like Escobar but he has two home runs on the season. He is batting third in the lineup, though. Since we are attacking the Rockies pitching, I want the meat of the order included.

Pavin Smith ($3,900)

Smith is batting leadoff for the Diamondbacks. He’s a lefty so the platoon advantage is in his favor. The slash is .271/.311/.457 and he has a .186 ISO. The BABIP is a little elevated but nothing too crazy. Smith doesn’t have crazy power or speed but he’s hitting at the top of the lineup and could score some runs.

Yonathan Daza ($2,500)

Diaz was the last piece to the puzzle. He has one home run on the season and the slash is .311/.304/.422. The strikeout rate is only 12.8 percent. Hey, he’s $2,500. What else do you want?

Alternative Moves…

Nico Hoerner – SS ($3,000 DK) – Hoerner has a .389/.500/.611 slash! Before you crown him, the BABIP is a ridiculous .500. What’s reassuring, though, are the plate discipline numbers as he’s posting an 18.2 percent walk rate and 18.2 percent strikeout rate. He’s batting leadoff and has a little speed to go along with the pop so there are multiple paths to fantasy goodies.  

Kyle Gibson – P ($7,000 DK)  

As mentioned earlier, Gibson has been pitching well to start the season. The swinging strike rate is 13.9 percent and FIP is 2.38. The numbers don’t indicate good or bad luck and he’s walked eight batters while striking out 23 in 27.1 innings. Now, he’s going to give up a home run eventually, but outside of that, things look good. It’s a small slate with the options limited so Gibson is the most viable one left.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.