DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 26, 2021

We’ve got a nine-game slate for Monday. Lineup construction was fairly easy as the two pitchers I wanted to roster were easily identified. As for bats, I want to attack two pitchers and the two stacks fit nicely, although the main bats I wanted were too expensive, so I went with the cheaper options in the middle and lower portions of the lineup. There are six teams projected for fewer than four runs (CHC, MIL, MIA, TEX, COL, and CIN). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (HOU and NYY). There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (MIA). 

Clear skies on the weather front.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/26/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Corbin Burnes ($10,400)

In 24.1 innings, Burnes has a 0.37 ERA and 0.71 FIP. He’s struck out 40 batters while only allowing a single home run and eight hits in total. The swinging strike rate is a robust 19 percent. Now he gets a Marlins team that is 11^th in strikeouts and 30^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. In four starts, he’s gone for 33.1, 30.3, 36.3, and 34.5 DKFP.

Travis d’Arnaud ($4,600)

We are attacking Zach Davies today. In 15.1 innings, he’s allowed 21 hits, 15 earned runs, two home runs, walked 11, and struck out only 10 batters. The swinging strike rate is a paltry 6.7 percent. He has been a little unlucky as both the BABIP is high and LOB percentage number is low, but the FIP is still an elevated 5.64. d’Araud strikes out a lot and doesn’t hit for average but when he connects it has a good chance of leaving the field. The ISO is .148 so far this season, but he’s posted an ISO over .200 in two of the last three seasons.

Jared Walsh ($4,300)

The other pitcher we are attacking today is Jordan Lyles and the Rangers bullpen. Lyles has a 5.02 FIP and has allowed five home runs on the season. The Texas bullpen has the fifth-highest FIP so far this season. Walsh has four home runs and a .250 ISO. The slash is .313/.389/.563.

Dansby Swanson ($3,900)

We have the full Braves stack today. Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman are way too expensive, so we are going towards the middle and bottom portions of the lineup. Swanson has gotten off to a terrible start, slashing .183/.266/.310 with a 32.9 strikeout rate. He has one home run and a .127 ISO. The BABIP is a low .273 so he’s had some bad luck. He’s not going to bat sub-.200 all season so this could be spot for him to get right.

Guillermo Heredia ($3,400)

Heredia has a .381 ISO! He’s a career .110 ISO hitter so don’t expect a power display. Both of his home runs came in one game. The slash is .286/.444/.667 and the BABIP is .308. The average may be a little elevated as he’s a career .240 hitter. With that said, the walk rate is a career-high 18.5 percent while the strikeout rate is a manageable 22.2 percent. Is he the greatest hitter? Nope, but we are attacking Davies.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/26/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Anthony DeSclafani ($7,900)

Away from Coors Field, the Rockies are 5^th in strikeouts and dead-last in ISO with a putrid .077 number. DeSclafani has an 11.3 percent swinging strike rate and 3.19 FIP. He’s pitching in the friendly confines of Oracle Park and should have no problem mowing down the Rockies.

David Fletcher ($3,200)

Fletcher won’t hit for much power but he’s leading off and can steal a base or two and score runs. We are attacking the Rangers pitching staff so there could be plenty of runs scored by the Angels. 

Austin Riley ($3,200)

Riley has two home runs on the season but the ISO is only .109. He’s a .200 ISO player so the home runs are going to come. The encouraging aspect about Riley’s season so far has been the 22.1 strikeout rate and 11.8 walk rate. When he first made the majors, those numbers were 36.4 percent and 5.4 percent respectively.

Marcel Ozuna ($5,200)

Ozuna is another Braves player who has gotten off to a cold start but could get healthy in this one. He only has one home run on the season with a .043 ISO. He had a .298 and .231 ISO the past two seasons. It’s going to happen and that could be today.

Justin Upton ($3,600)

Upton has four home runs on the season and a .226 ISO. He’s the anti-Braves hitter? Upton strikes out 30 percent of the time so there’s a ton of volatility to his game. When he gets hot, he gets scorching hot, though. He could feast in this matchup.

Alternative Moves…

Giancarlo Stanton – OF ($4,900 DK) Stanton had a two-home run game two games ago. On the season, he has a total of five. Unfortunately, the strikeout rate is 32.4 percent while the slash is .185/.254/.431. He has experienced some bad luck as the BABIP is only .189. Matt Harvey has pitched decently to begin the season as the FIP is 3.41 compared to the 5.12 ERA, but the swinging strike rate is on 7 percent.

Sean Manaea – P ($7,800 DK)

Manaea has a 12 percent swinging strike rate and 3.52 FIP. He’s struck out 22 batters in 23.2 innings while walking five and allowing eight earned runs. He’s given up three home runs. He faces a Rays team that is 5^th in strikeouts and 14^th in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.