DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 23, 2021

We’ve got a massive 14-game slate for Friday with Jacob deGrom and Coors Field on it. There are a ton of pitching options but I felt good narrowing it down to two. As for batters, so many paths to victory. I settled on one stack in particular but there is some risk. Not the, we are facing a good pitcher risk. More like, a bad pitcher that’s been pitching good kind of risk. With that said, I do feel good about the one-off pieces. I wanted to stack the Braves but they are all so expensive. There are ten teams projected for fewer than four runs (TOR, TB, CLE, ARI, PIT, CIN, STL, MIA, SD, and LAD). There are four teams projected for at least five runs (COL, PHI, BOS, and OAK.). There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (WAS). 

The HOU/LAA could be in trouble due to weather. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/23/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $900

Jacob deGrom ($10,900)

He’s the best pitcher in the game and he’s put up 24.5, 41, and 43.1 DKFP this season. One of those games was in Coors Field. Not much analysis is needed here.

Christian Vazquez ($5,000)

As much as I love Yusei Kikuchi, I want to pick on him today. In 19 innings, he’s allowed 10 earned runs, three home runs, walked six, and struck out 19. All three home runs have been given up to righties and the slash has been .304/.371/.482 against them. In his career, the slash has been .290/.349/.513 against righties. Vazquez has a career .190 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Mitch Moreland ($3,100)

I also want to pick on Jorge Lopez today. Lopez has been able to strike out batters this season, 17 in 13 innings, but I’m skeptical because he had a K/9 in the 6-range for two of the last three seasons. The swinging strike rate is 11.5 percent but it had never been above nine percent in his career. He has given up five home runs this season and the FIP is 6.67. Against lefties in his career, he’s allowed a .300/.365/.530 slash. Moreland is cheap and he has a career .213 ISO against left-handed pitching. 

Francisco Lindor ($4,900)

Eric Fedde and the Nationals bullpen are who I want to focus all my attack on. As mentioned in the opening, Fedde is a bad pitcher who hasn’t pitched that poorly. He’s struck out 15 batters in 11.1 innings and the FIP is 3.17 compared to the 5.56 ERA. The BABIP and LOB percentage numbers indicate that he’s experienced some bad luck. With all that said, the swinging strike rate is only 6.7 percent, the hard hit rate is at 40.6 percent, the average exit velocity is 92.3 mph, and the launch angle has been a whopping 17.4 degrees. I will continue to bet that he is a bad pitcher, but it’s baseball so anything can happen on a given day. The Nationals bullpen has allowed the 8^th-highest FIP this season. As for Lindor, he’s gotten off to a slow start but he’s one of the best hitters in the game and will turn it around at some point. Today could be that day.

Kike Hernandez ($4,000)

I want to pick on Kikuchi, as much as it pains me to say it. Kike bats leadoff and, throughout his career, he’s been more successful against lefties than righties. The slash is .260/.341/.470 with a .210 ISO against lefties compared to .225/.288/.391 with a .166 ISO against righties.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/23/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $900

Dylan Cease ($6,600)

Cease has an 11.6 percent strikeout rate and has notched 15 in 14 innings. The BABIP is at .368 so he’s been a little unfortunate. The big bugaboo for Cease has been the walks, as he’s given up nine free passes already this season. Those can always cause problems but what if he just strikes out everyone? The Rangers are first in strikeouts and 22^nd in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

Jeff McNeil ($4,300)

Fedde is the mark today. McNeil has gotten off a frigid start, slashing .167/.255/.286 with a .119 ISO. The BABIP is only .158. McNeil is a .290 hitter with a .160 ISO. It’s only been 47 plate appearances so he’s going to turn it around at some point. That could be today.

JD Davis ($3,700)

The full Mets stack is the play today. Davis is striking out 35 percent of the time but also has a BABIP-fueled .412/.500/.647 slash. He’s more like a 25 percent strikeout hitter and the average is going to come down to the .260 range. He still has 17-homer pop. On the season, not in one game. That would be a record for sure. 

Michael Conforto ($3,600)

Conforto is another Met who’s gotten off to a cold start. The BABIP is .241. He’s a 25-homer player and he has yet to go yard yet. It’s going to happen at some point. Today’s a good a day as any. Fedde gave up 10 home runs in 50.1 innings last season.

Raimel Tapia ($3,000)

Tapia and Kike were the first two players I clicked on for today. Both are leading off and Tapia is just too cheap. He’s in Coors Field, has the power/speed combo, and is facing Vince Velasquez who has a career .273/.352/.472 slash against lefties.

Alternative Moves…

Ryan McMahon – 2B/3B ($5,200 DK) McMahon has only walked 1.4 percent this season. Ha! I respect it. He’s always had the power, as the ISO was over .200 in each of the past two seasons, but it’s at .319 this year and he’s clubbed six home runs so far. The dramatic improvement he’s made is in the strikeout department, as he slashed it from 34.2 percent last season to 20 percent this year. He’s batting second against Velasquez who struggles with lefties, and is batting in Coors Field.

Sandy Alcantara – P ($7,400 DK)    

In 24.2 innings, Alcantara has struck out 28 batters. He’s allowed only one    

home run and nine earned runs. The swinging strike rate is a robust 15.3 percent. The Giants are surprisingly 8^th in ISO against right-handed pitching, but they are also 2^nd in strikeouts.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.