DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 21, 2021

Well, we got good Patrick Corbin yesterday. It’s baseball, it happens. That’s in the past so let’s get it for Wednesday. We’ve got a seven-game slate with first pitch at 3:10 pm PT. Researching the pitching was more difficult than normal as there are some TBDs, some pitchers may not get a full workload, and a lot of them straight stink. Aaron Civale is the most expensive pitcher. Yuck. So this is a “no risk it, no biscuit” pitching slate with leverage to be gained. Some games don’t have totals as of yet, so as of the time of this writing, there are two teams projected for fewer than four runs (ARI and CHC). There is no team projected for at least five runs. 

Inclement weather could be an issue for the BOS/TOR in Boston, so I’m staying away.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/21/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $200

Ian Anderson ($8,400)

The Yankees are projected for 4.7 runs. Is that due to the Yankee name or is it deserved? Sure, they have some boppers on that team but, so far in 2021, they are 13^th in strikeouts and only 22^nd in ISO against right-handed pitching. Anderson has a 11.15 K/9 and a 12.4 percent swinging strike rate. There’s risk here for sure, as he’s given up three home runs and eight earned runs on the season, but there’s upside as well. With how gross this slate is for pitching, Anderson goes to the forefront.

Willson Contreras ($4,600)

I want to pick on David Peterson today. The lefty has given up three homers in 29 righties faced this season. In his career, the K/9 is 7.42, FIP is 5.25, and SLG is .414 against righties. Contreras has five home runs on the season already and a career .222 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Joey Votto ($4,500)

We are picking on Merrill Kelly and the Arizona bullpen today. In 16 innings this season, Kelly has allowed 15 earned runs, four home runs, walked four, and struck out 10. The swinging strike rate is only 8.9 percent while the FIP is a robust 5.84. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the ninth-highest FIP. Votto has three home runs in 64 plate appearances. The ISO is .200 while the slash is .267/.313/.467. The BABIP is only .271 so it hasn’t been due to luck. The average exit velocity is a career-high 92.6 mph as is the 13.7 percent barrel rate.

Eugenio Suarez ($5,300)

Suarez has a ton of swing-and-miss to his game as the strikeout rate is 34.9 percent. When he gets a hold of one, though, it’s usually a no-doubter. Suarez has two home runs on the season but the slash is only .173/.302/.365. This is a get-right spot as Kelly doesn’t miss bats and the Arizona bullpen is susceptible. The game is also being played in the box that is Great American small park, where Suarez has hit 84 home runs with a .267/.354/.508 slash in 560 plate appearances.

Tyler Naquin ($5,100)

Naquin has six home runs and one stolen base on the season. Six! The strikeout rate is 25 percent but Kelly isn’t known to miss many bats. I hate the price but he’s scorching hot and I want to get as many pieces as I can against Kelly and the Arizona bullpen.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/21/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $200

Michael Wacha ($7,200)

In 15 innings, Wacha has allowed seven home runs, one home run, walked seven, and struck out 20. The FIP is 2.69 compared to the 4.2 ERA and the swinging strike rate is a robust 15.9 percent. The Royals are 9^th in strikeouts and 24^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

David Bote ($3,000)

Right-handed bat against Peterson. Bote hits towards the bottom of the lineup but he’s cheap and the ISO is .229. Throughout his career, the ISO has been above .160 in every season. The slash is only .171/.286/.400 but he has hit two home runs and the BABIP is only .154. He’s due for some good fortune.

Kris Bryant ($4,500)

I went over why I want to attack Peterson with righties. On the season, Bryant has hit five home runs and has a .265/.362/.653 slash. He’s barreling 16.2 percent of pitching and has a launch angle of 17.8 degrees. 

Jesse Winker ($4,500)

Winker completes our Reds stack against the Arizona pitching. Winker only has one home run on the season, but the ISO is .184 and he’s slashing .368/.400/.553. That’s been BABIP-fueled by a .448 mark but he’s batting leadoff.

Jake Marisnick ($2,700)

Marisnick has struggled so far, as he has a 47.1 percent strikeout rate. He’s only had 17 plate appearances, though. He is cheap and bats from the right side, and we want as many righties against Peterson as possible.

Alternative Moves…

Xander Bogaerts – SS ($5,500 DK) Bogaerts hasn’t hit a home run yet but the slash is .386/.435/.491. The BABIP is .489 so there’s been a ton of luck but the ISO is also at .105, which is .100 points lower than than where it should be. 

Jakob Junis– P ($6,400 DK)

In 12 innings, Junis has allowed two earned runs, zero home runs, three walks, and struck out 15. The swinging strike rate is 12.4 percent. Prior to this year, he had never had a number above 10 so there’s some skepticism. In addition, the BABIP and LOB percentages show that there’s been some luck involved and he’s going to give up home runs at some point. With that said, the Rays are 11^th in strikeouts and 23^rd in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.