DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 20, 2021

After yesterday’s six-gamer, we get a massive 13-game slate with first pitches at 4:05 PST on Tuesday. It’s an interesting slate from a pitching perspective because Corbin Burnes is the highest-priced and best pitcher and there’s a very cheap pitcher you can pair him with. The mid-tier is littered with plenty of options as well so there are many paths you can take. As for hitters, there are pitchers I want to pick on but they could easily get shut out too. Good times. There are six teams projected for fewer than four runs (SD, MIL, TEX, SF, PIT, and ARI). There is one team projected for at least five runs (LAA). We stacked the Cardinals yesterday and I’d say that turned out alright. We are going right back there today with a full stack but there’s tons risk because we never know which Patrick Corbin will show up.

Rain could be a factor for the DET/PIT game. I have a ton of interest in Michael Fulmer so keep an eye on updates. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Michael Fulmer ($5,800)

Fulmer has been good to start the season. In 12 innings, he’s walked one and struck out 12. He has allowed four earned runs and three home runs, though. With that said, the swinging strike rate is 12 percent and he’s added two miles per hour on the fastball. He faces a Pirates team that is 8^th in strikeouts and 28^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. The price is too cheap for what he can do. There’s weather concerns so keep a watchful eye.

Yadier Molina ($4,400)

Molina has been scorching hot to start the season. He’s slashing .340/.385/.660 with four home runs and a .319 ISO. The BABIP is .364 so there’s been plenty of luck. Plus, he’s a career .124 ISO hitter so don’t expect the Ruthian power display to continue. With that said, I’d like to pick on Joe Ross and the Nationals bullpen. 

That was written for yesterday’s slate. Molina went 0-for-5 but the process was right as the Cardinals put up 12 runs. We are going right back to this matchup as Patrick Corbin is on the hill. Plus, the bullpen is taxed from yesterday. Corbin is tough against lefties but the strikeout rate decreases by 10 percent to righties. On the season, he’s got a 9.8 percent strikeout rate, he’s allowing a 20 percent barrel rate, and a 52 percent hard hit rate. He’s been allowing 50 percent fly balls and the launch angle has been 18.9. The average exit velocity has been 95 mph. Corbin can get hot and strike out batters but he’s been giving up a ton of hard contact and the Cardinals are 24^th in strikeouts and 12^thin ISO against left-handed pitching.

Paul Goldschmidt ($4,900)

I went over why I want to pick on the Nationals pitching today. As hot as Molina has been, Goldschmidt has been the opposite. The ISO is at .091 and he’s only clubbed one home run. This is a get-well spot for him.

I’d say that worked out as he went 3-for-5 with a home run. 

Paul DeJong ($3,800)

I wasn’t lying when I said we are going to pick on Nationals pitching. DeJong is striking out 32.7 percent of the time. That rate has always been high but the power is real. The ISO is .196 this season and he’s hit three home runs. The slash is .152/.291/.348 but the BABIP is a paltry .160. Good fortune is in the offering.

Went 2-for-4 with two home runs yesterday.

Dylan Carlson ($3,100)

Carlson is the value bat and will complete the full Cardinals stack. He has a career .250 ISO against left-handed pitching. Granted, it’s only been 26 plate appearances but that’s all we have to go off. On the season, he has three home runs with a .255 ISO.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/20/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Luis Castillo ($6,600)

Castillo is just too cheap for his upside. He was a $9,000 pitcher to begin the season. The K/9 is only 7.04 but the swinging strike rate is still at 12.7 percent. In the prior two seasons, that number was in the 15 percent range, so it’s a decrease but it’s still a good number. The LOB rate is at 47.9 percent. The career average is 73.5 percent. He’s still inducing ground balls so the pitching profile hasn’t dramatically changed. He getting unlucky and needs to get into the groove for this season. Arizona isn’t the greatest matchup as they are 25^th in strikeouts but they are only 19^th in ISO.

Ryan McMahon ($5,300)

McMahon is batting second and the Rockies are back at home. He’s been great to start the season as he has six home runs already and the ISO is at .367. The strikeout rate is only 19.7 percent while the slash is .267/.279/.633. He faces Luis Garcia who has a total of 20 major league innings. The swinging strike rate is 13.1 percent but he’s allowing 61.9 percent fly balls, a 9.5 percent barrel rate, and 30.7 launch angle. Small sample size but that’s all we have to work with. Plus, he will be pitching in Colorado for the first time in his career.

Nolan Arenado ($5,000)

Yup, the full Cardinals stack. What could go wrong? Well, it is baseball so if they get shut out, please refrain from throwing internet tomatoes at my internet head. Arenado is the best hitter on the Cardinals teams and we are picking on Corbin and the Nationals pen. He has four home runs on the season with a .254 ISO. In his career, he has a .274/.360/.478 slash with a .203 ISO against left-handed pitching away from Coors Field. 

Mike Trout ($6,100)

Mike Trout is good at baseball. He faces Jordan Lyles who has given up four home runs in 15.1 innings so far. The swinging strike rate has been a decent 11.3 percent but he’s allowing 53.3 percent fly balls with a launch angle of 24. The average exit velocity has been 94.1 mph. There’s also the Rangers bullpen which has allowed the 10^th-highest FIP. 

Nelson Cruz ($5,000)

Sometimes it’s nice paying down at pitcher because of all the bats you can squeeze in. Cruz has four home runs with a .341 ISO on the season. He faces lefty Sean Manaea who has allowed a .424 SLG to righties over his career. Cruz has a career .576 SLG against left-handed pitching.

Alternative Moves…

Yordan Alvarez – OF ($5,000 DK) Alvarez may not play in this one because there will be no DH. If the Astros do let him play in the field, he could mash in Coors Field. On the season, he has a .283/.306/.500 slash with a .217 ISO. He had an ISO over .300 in each of the prior two seasons. 

Corbin Burnes– P ($10,800 DK)

He’s the best pitcher on the slate. I just think the lower-priced pitchers could come close to his production. With that said, he’s about as close to a 30-DKFP outing as there is. So far, he’s put up 33.1, 30.3, and 36.3 DKFP. He has a 14.73 K/9 with a BB/9. The swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 19.7 percent. If going with Burnes, I’d swap out Trout and Cruz and replace them with Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto. I actually like that a lot. Guess I’m entering two lineups. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.