DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 2, 2021

Man, Opening Day was amazing. I need a cigarette and I quit years ago. After games all morning and through the night, we get a six-game slate for Friday with the first pitch at 4:10 pm PST. How about afternoon baseball every day? Who’s with me? The pitching isn’t as enticing as Thursday, especially since Trevor Bauer is in Colorado, but there are some interesting options for a cheap price which will allow us to roster some juicy bats.

The weather won’t be a factor today.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/2/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Andrew Heaney ($7,600)

Heaney is prone to the long ball but he has excellent swing-and-miss stuff. The swinging strike rate was 12.3% last season and 14.1% in 2019. The K-BB% was 18.3% and 21.5% in 2019. Over the last two seasons, the White Sox are 12^th in strikeout rate to left-handed pitching and 21^st in ISO. They also lost a huge bat in Eloy Jimenez. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo ($3,200)

Tsutsugo has tremendous power, sporting a career .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. With great power comes great responsibility, though, and the jury is still out in that regard. The career batting average against RHP is .183 but the BABIP has been .198 so he’s been unlucky. He’s in the 86^th percentile for hard hit percentage and in the 73^rd percentile for exit velocity. What is most intriguing about Tsutsugo is the batting eye, as he’s walked 14.8% of the time against righties. As a result, the Rays often bat him in the leadoff spot, which is where he will be on Friday.

Corey Seager ($5,800)

I wrote up Seager yesterday and I’m going right back to the well. On Thursday, he went 2-for-3 with two walks and a RBI. The great thing, for me at least, is that I can use what I wrote yesterday and it’s still relevant. It’s Coors Field! Seager bats second in a potent lineup that is going to score a ton of runs. If you take a look at his Statcast page, it’s all red. Red is good. The exit velocity is in the 97^Thpercentile, hard hit rate is 98^th percentile, barrel percentage is 95^th percentile, xBA and xSLG are 99^th percentile, and xwOBA is 98^th percentile. Whew. I need a cigarette now.  

Mike Trout ($5,900)

Trout is one of the greatest players of his era. He has a career .304/.418/.582 slash with 302 home runs and 201 stolen bases in 10 MLB seasons. The ISO has been over .300 in each of the past four seasons. The walk and strikeout rates are usually close to each other. Last year, it was 14.5%/23.2%. In the prior three seasons, it was 18.3%/20%, 20.1%/20.4%, and 18.5%/17.8%. Who does that? The exit velocity has been below 90 mph just once in the last six seasons. Translation: he’s good. Now he gets a matchup against Dallas Keuchel, who is projected to have a K/9 of 6.41 and throws the fastball at 87 mph. Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher but Trout has had much success against him in the past. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Pablo Lopez ($7,000)

After being a 7 K/9 pitcher his first two seasons in the league, Lopez jumped up to 9.26 last year. The fastball stayed at 93 mph but he incorporated a cutter into the mix. That was a boon for his arsenal as the swinging strike rate increased two percent while the FIP was 3.09. Now, it was a small sample size of 11 games so there is a modicum of uncertainty but the incorporation of the cutter is real. He now faces a Rays team that’s been 11^th in strikeouts against righties and 14^th in ISO. They just got by Sandy Alcantara. 

Jake Cronenworth ($3,400)

Cronenworth is the meat of the Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado sandwich, as he’s batting second in the Padres lineup against right-handed pitching. He doesn’t strike out a lot, takes his share of walks, and is a high OBP player. On opening day, Cronenworth went 2-for-2 (one triple) and walked twice. There’s even a little power upside, which could come into play because Merrill Kelly gives up 1.4 HR/9.

David Fletcher ($4,600)

Fletcher is the leadoff hitter for the Angels. He rarely strikes out and has posted an OBP over .350 in each of the past two seasons. He’s not a huge home run or stolen base hero, but he’s not a zero either. He’s all about taking a walk or hitting a single, then scoring runs when the big guns drive him in. I’ve got him in the lineup because Dallas Keuchel can be had. 

Cody Bellinger ($5,700)

Bellinger hit a home run yesterday but was called out! Justin Turner was on base and thought the ball was caught, so he sprinted back to first, passing Bellinger on the base paths which resulted in the out. So tilting if you rostered Bellinger, as he was credited with a single and a RBI instead of a home run. Anyways, the important take away from that play was that he crushed the pitch and went oppo. He looks healthy and primed to bounce back from a terrible 2020. It doesn’t hurt that he’s playing in Coors Field for this one and going up against Antonio Senzatela, who had a 5.03 K/9 last season.

Alternative Moves…

Ryan McMahon – OF ($3,600 DK) McMahon is batting second and playing in Coors Field. Trevor Bauer is an excellent pitcher but he’s been prone to giving up some taters from time to time. Plus, there have been questions about pine tar usage. McMahon strikes out over 30% of the time but the ISO is the .200 range. If he connects on one, it’s going to go a long way.

Yusei Kikuchi – P ($6,000 DK) I’ve been a Kikuchi guy ever since he went to Driveline and added mph to his fastball. He’s now throwing in the 95-97 mph range. He also has a deep bag of offspeed pitches to complement it. When he first arrived in the US, the K/9 was 6.46. After Driveline, it went up to 9 last season. There were also off-the-field issues that Kikuchi was dealing with, so if he’s more comfortable, there’s upside here, especially since he’s the cheapest pitcher on the slate. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.