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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 19, 2021

Paul Goldschmidt
JUPITER, FL - MARCH 08: Paul Goldschmidt (46) of the Cardinals at bat during the spring training game between the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals on March 08, 2021 at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

A small little six-game slate with first pitches at 4:05 PST to get the week started off. The pitching looks very straightforward to me and there are three pitchers/staffs I want to pick on. There are five team projected for fewer than four runs (WAS, TEX, SEA, MIL, and SD). There is one team projected for at least five runs (LAA). 

Weather doesn’t look to be a factor today. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/19/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherDylan Bundy $7,700
 CatcherYadier Molina $4,400
 First BasePaul Goldschmidt $4,900
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopPaul DeJong $3,800
 OutfieldMookie Betts $5,900

Salary Remaining          $200

Dylan Bundy ($7,700)

I’m surprised Bundy is priced below $8,000. The swinging strike rate is 13.4 percent and he’s accumulated 22 strikeouts in 19 innings. The K-BB percentage is a healthy 22.1 percent. Maybe it’s due to the three home runs and seven earned runs he’s allowed. Whatever. I’m good with the discount. The Rangers are 4th in strikeouts and 27th in ISO against right-handed pitching. 

Yadier Molina ($4,400)

Molina has been scorching hot to start the season. He’s slashing .340/.385/.660 with four home runs and a .319 ISO. The BABIP is .364 so there’s been plenty of luck. Plus, he’s a career .124 ISO hitter so don’t expect the Ruthian power display to continue. With that said, I’d like to pick on Joe Ross and the Nationals bullpen. Ross has been fantastic in his first two starts, not allowing an earned run and walking only three batters. He’s not this good, though. The BABIP is only .214 and the LOB percentage is 100%. In addition, the Nationals bullpen has had the seventh-highest FIP over the last year. 

Paul Goldschmidt ($4,900)

I went over why I want to pick on the Nationals pitching today. As hot as Molina has been, Goldschmidt has been the opposite. The ISO is at .091 and he’s only clubbed one home run. This is a get-well spot for him.

Paul DeJong ($3,800)

I wasn’t lying when I said we are going to pick on Nationals pitching. DeJong is striking out 32.7 percent of the time. That rate has always been high but the power is real. The ISO is .196 this season and he’s hit three home runs. The slash is .152/.291/.348 but the BABIP is a paltry .160. Good fortune is in the offering.

Mookie Betts ($5,900)

Betts is the spend up option today. I don’t need to go deep into Betts. He’s one of the best hitters in the game and can provide fantasy goodies with both the bat and legs. I want to pick on Justus Sheffield and the Mariners bullpen.  In 11 innings so far, Sheffield has allowed six earned runs, two home runs, walked four, and struck out 10. The swinging strike rate is at 8.9 percent. In his young career, he’s given up 8 of 10 home runs to righties and the slash has been .301/.366/.430. The Mariners bullpen has the third-highest FIP over the last year.

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• Full lineup support for the 50-50 lineup above
• A more risky full lineup for a GPP. 
• A number of alternative picks that you mix in for some variations on your core lineups.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/19/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherDylan Bundy $7,700
 PitcherJoe Musgrove $10,200
 CatcherYadier Molina $4,400
 First BasePaul Goldschmidt $4,900
 Second BaseTommy La Stella $4,000
 Third BaseSheldon Neuse $2,000
 Short StopPaul DeJong $3,800
 OutfieldMookie Betts $5,900
 OutfieldAlex Dickerson $3,800
 OutfieldAJ Pollock $3,100

Salary Remaining          $200

Joe Musgrove ($10,200)

Musgrove is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and the closest thing to a stud. The BABIP is .154 and LOB percentage is 100 percent so there’s been some luck and some regression should be expected. With that said, he’s been amazing in his own right. The K-BB percentage is 32.8 percent and the swinging strike rate is 14 percent. He now faces a Brewers lineup without Christian Yelich that is 2nd in strikeouts and 22nd in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Tommy La Stella ($4,000)

La Stella will likely bat leadoff for the Giants. The walk rate is 7.7 percent, strikeout rate is only 11.5 percent, and the ISO is at .125. He’s not a power hitter but he’s slashing .333/.385/.458 so far on the season. It’s been BABIP fueled but he’s at the top of the order and I want to attack the Phillies pitching today. Chase Anderson has pitched nine innings, allowed four earned runs, two home runs, walked five, and struck out six. The swinging strike rate is a decent 12.3 percent but the K-BB percentage is 2.6 percent. The BABIP is .125 and the LOB percentage is 85.4 percent. The FIP is 6.71 so I see clouds on the horizon. As for the Phillies bullpen, they have the fourth-highest FIP over the last year.

Sheldon Neuse ($2,000)

Neuse was called up because of the Gavin Lux injury. He went 0-for-2 in his debut and there’s no guarantee that he starts on Monday. Keep an eye on the lineup but I’m assuming that he does because he’s a righty and Justus Sheffield is a lefty. It’s hard to glean anything from the splits data because he’s only had 61 major league plate appearances. He’s the minimum price against a pitching staff that I want to attack so he’s in.

Alex Dickerson ($3,800)

Dickerson bats third for the Giants and I want to attack the Phillies pitching today. On the season, he has two home runs. The strikeout rate has been 27.8 percent and the slash is a gross .156/.250/.344. The BABIP is only .150, though. The hard hit rate and exit velocity data look poor right now but it’s early and he’s barreling the ball at a career-high 13.6 percent. A get-right spot for Dickerson.

AJ Pollock ($3,100)

I mentioned that I want to attack the Mariners pitching staff. Pollock bats toward the bottom of the lineup, which takes some shine off him but is also one of the reasons he’s priced at $3,100. In his career, he has .234 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Alternative Moves…

Shohei Ohtani – OF ($4,600 DK) I attacked Kohei Arihara last outing and it didn’t go so well. He’s not overpowering, posting a 7.4 strikeout rate, but he’s only walked one and given up one home run in 14.2 innings. With that said, it’s Ohtani, who has four home runs, two stolen bases and is posting a .373 ISO with a .333/.370/.706 slash. Ridiculous. 

Danny Duffy– P ($7,000 DK)

In 12 innings, Duffy has allowed one earned run, one home run, walked four, and struck out 11. The swinging strike rate is 10.7 percent. The Rays are 1st in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. They are also 3rd in ISO so there’s risk of blowup year. There’s also reward for a ton of strikeouts.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

So, what did you think?

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