DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 16, 2021

Whoa, a massive 14-game slate with first pitches at 4:05 PST. Jacob deGrom starts today after his last start got postponed. We also have Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler on the mound. Past them, there are some decent mid-tier options with plenty of pitchers to pick on. Three games don’t have totals yet (NYY/TB, NYM/COL, and CHW/BOS). There are five team projected for fewer than four runs (ARI, PIT, MIN, DET, and SD). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (OAK and LAA). I feel comfortable paying down at pitcher today so I’ll be paying for a ton of high-priced bats.

As for weather, there are a couple of hot spots. Or wet spots if you prefer. There may be some light drizzles for the NYY/TB game while BOS/CHW and KC/TOR have some postponement risk due to rain.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/16/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Frankie Montas ($7,300)

In two starts to begin the season, Montas has allowed 13 hits, eight earned runs, two home runs, four walks, and struck out nine in 8.2 innings. Not great, Bob. There’s light at the end of the tunnel, though. He faced two of the best offenses in the Astros and Dodgers, the BABIP is .400, so some luck has been involved, and the swinging strike rate is 11.6 percent, which is the same rate it’s been the last three seasons. Now he faces a Tigers team that is first in strikeouts and 20^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

James McCann ($4,100)

This is how I’m getting my exposure to Coors Field. McCann has tons of swing-and-miss to his game, although the strikeout rate has only been 18.5 percent in 27 plate appearances this season. The last two years that number has been above 27 percent. No worries, though, because Chi Chi Gonzalez has posted a swinging strike rate above 7 percent just once. The K/9 has never been above 7 with three seasons below. McCann has power as he’s posted an ISO of .247 and .187 over the past two seasons. And he’s in Coors Field now.

Matt Olson ($4,400)

I want to pick on Jose Urena and the Tigers bullpen tonight. In 7.2 innings, he’s allowed seven hits, seven earned runs, one home run, nine walks, and struck out nine. Throughout his career, he’s never had a K/9 over 6.72 and has always had control issues. Against lefties, he has a career 4.87 K/9, 12.3 percent strikeout rate, 5.49 FIP, and 1.47 HR/9. Olson is the top power bat in the Athletics lineup. He’s prone to striking out but when he connects, it’s gone. The ISO has been over .200 in each of the past four seasons with a .392 mark in 2017. 

Trea Turner ($5,800)

Turner is one the best shortstops in the game. He’s been a little off to start the season as the batting average and walk rate are down while the strikeout rate is up. The BABIP is .280 so he’s been getting a little unlucky but the ISO is a healthy .257. He has two home runs and one stolen base in 38 plate appearances. This could be a get-healthy spot as Taylor Widener is not a daunting pitcher. The swinging strike rate is 8.3 percent and the K/9 is 6.55. The Diamondbacks bullpen has also posted the sixth-highest FIP over the last year. 

David Dahl ($3,700)

I want to attack Jorge Lopez tonight. So far in 8.2 innings, he’s allowed 11 hits, 11 earned runs, three home runs, four walks, and struck out nine. He’s never posted a double-digit swinging strike rate and currently has a 7.29 FIP. In the last two seasons, that number has been above 5. Against lefties throughout his career, the K/9 has been 7.41, HR/9 has been 2.01, strikeout rate at 18.1 percent, and the FIP has been 5. Now, Dahl has been struggling mightily to start the season, as the slash is .209/.222/.279 and he’s posting a 26.1 percent strikeout rate and 0.7 ISO. He’s batting second in the lineup and this is the spot for him to get healthy. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/16/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Andrew Heaney ($6,800)

Heaney has a 13 K/9. It’s only been nine innings but still. The swinging strike is 14.7 percent which isn’t a fluke as he’s been in the double-digits in each of the last six seasons. He’s given up seven earned runs so far, which is gross, but the FIP is 3.03 compared to the 7 ERA. He faces a Twins team that seems scary with Nelson Cruz in the heart of the lineup, but over the past year, the Twins are 21^st in strikeouts but dead-last in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Marcus Semien ($4,800)

The average has been low for Semien but the BABIP has been .212 so there’s been plenty of bad luck. The ISO is a robust .231, though, as he’s clubbed four home runs in 57 plate appearances. He’s also stolen two bases. Semien is batting leadoff and faces Mike Minor who has a 7.87 K/9, 1.26 HR/9, and 4.31 FIP against right-handed bats. 

Justin Turner ($5,200)

Turner is smashing the ball right now, as the ISO is .341 and slash is .390/.435/.7323. He has three home runs but the most impressive number is the 17.4 percent strikeout rate. He is just a professional hitter. Now, the average is BABIP fueled as that number is .419. At some point, it’s going to come down but that doesn’t mean regression is coming today. On the mound for the Padres is Ryan Weathers who has pitched a grand total of six major league innings. He pitched in Single-A before making the jump to the bigs. Throughout his career, Turner has been successful against left-handed pitching, posting a .188 ISO.

Joey Gallo ($4,400)

Jorge Lopez struggles against left-handed bats. Gallo is one of the preeminent left-handed power bats in the game. He strikes out a ton and the ISO has only been .081 to start the season, but this is an excellent opportunity to spark a heater.

AJ Pollock ($3,200)

Pollock usually bats seventh, which sucks. With that said, the Dodgers lineup is so potent and deep that the impact is mitigated somewhat. The Padres are throwing the lefty Ryan Weathers out there. In 943 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Pollock has posted a .285 average, 14.8 percent strikeout rate, and .235 ISO.

Alternative Moves…

Chris Taylor – OF ($4,000 DK) Since Dahl has been sucking to start the season, a pivot to Taylor is viable. He also bats lower in the order, but you could have a mini-bottom of the order Dodgers stack. Against left-handed pitching, Taylor has a career .192 ISO.

Yusei Kikuchi– P ($7,200 DK)

The Astros are tough against left-handed pitching as they are dead-last in strikeouts and are 13^th in ISO. Kikuchi is susceptible to the long ball and has served up three to right-handed batters so far this season. With that said, the strikeout rates this season are 40 percent against lefties and 30.8 percent against righties. The swinging strike rate is 9.3 percent. Since arriving in the United States two seasons ago, Kikuchi has added over 3 mph on the fastball. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.