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MLB Baseball DFS Advice

DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 14, 2021

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - SEPTEMBER 30: Kevin Kiermaier (39) of the Rays bumps forearms with Mike Zunino (10) after Zunino's home run as Mike Brosseau (43) looks on during the AL Wild Card Series game #2 between the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays on September 30, 2020 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

We’ve got a seven-game slate for Wednesday with first pitches thrown at 4:05 PST. There are no “stud” pitchers on the slate, but I guess that depends on perspective as Joe Musgrove, Kenta Maeda, and Corbin Burnes are considered just that by some. Regardless, there are plenty of good pitchers to choose from and some juicy ones to pick on. There is one team projected for fewer than 3 runs – COL (2.9). There are four teams projected for 3 runs – DET (3.6), TEX (3.7), NYM (3.9), and MIA (3.4). There are four teams projected to score at least 5 runs – ATL (5.2), TB (5), HOU (5.6), and BAL (5).


As for weather, Baltimore looks like it’s going to get rain while in New York some drizzles are forecasted. That sucks because one of the pitchers I wanted to attack is in that BAL/SEA game. Oh well. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/14/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherDustin May $9,400
 Pitcher   
 CatcherMike Zunino $4,400
 First BaseYandy Diaz $3,500
 Second Base   
 Third Base   
 Short StopWilly Adames $4,300
 OutfieldRandy Arozarena $5,300
 Outfield   
 Outfield   
  
  

Salary Remaining          $000

Dustin May ($9,400)

May can throw triple-digits and some of his pitches have absurd movement. So, it was puzzling that the K/9 was under 8.4 and the swinging strike rate was under nine percent in the prior two seasons. Well, it looks like he’s figured out some things because the swinging strike rate has been 17.6 percent in the early going. Granted, he’s only faced 23 batters but still. He allowed two hits, walked two, and struck out eight in his opening game. Now he faces a Rockies team that is completely inept outside of Coors Field.

Mike Zunino ($4,400)

We are picking on Kohei Arihara today. The 28-year-old pitcher from Japan is getting his first taste of the majors. In two games, he’s pitched nine innings, allowed 11 hits, five earned runs, one home run, and struck out two. The swinging strike rate has been 4.1 percent and he’s really struggled against right-handed bats. The FIP is 7.15, SLG is .833, and he’s failed to strike out a righty yet. Plus, the TEX bullpen hasn’t been good. So, we are stacking all the righties in the Rays offense today. Now, Zunino has a ton of swing-and-miss to his game, but this matchup is not a daunting one and he possesses extreme power.

Yandy Diaz ($3,500)

Diaz is a righty. End of analysis. I kid. Diaz doesn’t have the power that Zunino does but the plate discipline is magnifique. The walk rate is 14.7 percent while the strikeout rate is only 17.6 percent. In 2019, he did post a .208 ISO in 347 plate appearances so there is some upside. 

Willy Adames ($4,300)

Guess what? Yup, another righty. Adames is more Zunino than Diaz as he has a 31.4 strikeout rate this season and posted a 36.1 percent mark last year. He does have pop, hitting two home runs so far and notched a .222 ISO last season.

Randy Arozarena ($5,300)

I’m not stacking the Rays without Arozarena, especially since he’s the most potent right-handed bat in the lineup. He has two home runs on the season but the strikeout rate is 34.1 percent. That shouldn’t be a problem against Arihara. Last season, Arozarena posted a ridiculous .359 ISO so the power is real.

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Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)

 PitcherDustin May $9,400
 PitcherCharlie Morton $7,600
 CatcherMike Zunino $4,400
 First BaseYandy Diaz $3,500
 Second BaseOzzie Albies $4,700
 Third BaseAustin Riley $3,600
 Short StopWilly Adames $4,300
 OutfieldRandy Arozarena $5,300
 OutfieldAkil Baddoo $3,600
 OutfieldManuel Margot $3,600
  
  

Salary Remaining          $000

Charlie Morton ($7,600)

Morton is just too cheap for his upside. In two starts so far, he’s allowed 10 hits, four earned runs, walked three, and struck out 12. MIA is 6th in strikeouts and 30th in ISO against right-handed pitching over the past three seasons.  

Ozzie Albies ($4,700)

Another pitcher I want to attack is Nick Neidert of the Marlins. In 4.1 innings so far, he’s allowed three hits, one earned run, walked five, and struck out three. The FIP is 5.22 and the swinging strike rate is only 8.2 percent. Last season, it was 4.5 percent. The Marlins bullpen has also posted the worst FIP at 5.25. Now, Albies has been struggling in the early going, batting .128. He was recently moved down in the order but this could be a get-right spot for him.

Austin Riley ($3,600)

Like Albies, Riley has also struggled early on. He’s batting .188 with zero home runs. He strikes out a ton, 30.6 percent on the season, but he has a ton of power. Steamer has him projected for a .218 ISO. This could also be a get-right spot for Riley.

Akil Baddoo ($3,600)

Man, what a start to the season. Four home runs in the first eight games. He’s not going to bat .370 and have a .640 ISO all season long. While he doesn’t strikeout often, the contact rates are low and he does chase outside the zone. Pitchers are going to figure him out eventually. Then it comes down to how he adjusts to the adjustments. The physical talent is there. With all that said, he’s on a heater and pitchers haven’t figured him out yet. The matchup against Lance McCullers isn’t a good one as he is very effective against left-handed bats. I didn’t search out to play Baddoo. He just fit in for the last spot and was the player with the most upside.

Manuel Margot ($3,600)

The final piece to the TB stack against Arihara. Margot has one home run on the season with a respectable .269/.321/.500 slash. The ISO is at .231 which probably isn’t sustainable. He’s never posted a number above .162. With that said, he doesn’t strikeout often and could wreak havoc on the basepaths.

Alternative Moves…

Brandon Nimmo – OF ($3,200 DK) Zack Wheeler has been great to start the season.; He’s allowed eight hits, three earned runs, four walks, and struck out 14 in 11.2 innings. Nimmo is batting leadoff and is scorching hot right now with a .412/.565/.588 slash. He hasn’t hit one out yet but the ISO is at .176. It’s only a matter of time before he parks one. 

Lance McCullers Jr.– P ($9,900 DK)

In two starts so far, McCullers has allowed four hits, two earned runs, walked six, and struck out 13 in 10 innings. He now faces a Tigers team that is first in strikeouts and 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.

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