DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 13, 2021

We’ve got a ten-game slate for Tuesday with first pitches thrown at 4:05 PST. It was initially an eleven-game slate but the Mariners-Orioles game got postponed. The White Sox and Indians game is must-see TV if you enjoy pitching as Shane Bieber takes on Lucas Giolito. The pitching is deep today with plenty of options to choose from. With that said, there aren’t as many arms to pick on. The Rockies have a slate-low total of 2.8 runs. There are 10 teams with totals under 4 – TEX (3.7), MIA (3.4), CHI (3.5), WAS (3.7), STL (3.9), DET (3.8), CLE (3.5), CHW (3.5), CIN (3.7), and SF (3.9). Only the LAD (5.3) and HOU (5.3) have totals over 5.

Weather doesn’t look to be a factor for today.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/13/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Kevin Gausman ($6,800)

Gausman is just too cheap. In two starts to open the season, he went 6.2 innings against the Mariners and allowed two hits, one earned run, and two walks while striking out six, and pitched seven innings against the Padres and allowed five hits, one earned run, one walk with five strikeouts. The BABIP has been .194 so expect some regression but he’s still been pitching to a 2.20 FIP. Now he gets a matchup against the Reds who are 10^th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. They are ninth in ISO but this game is in San Francisco, not the box in Cincinnati. 

Alejandro Kirk ($3,000)

I rarely pay up for catchers and Jameson Taillon was one of the pitchers I wanted to pick on, so he was a cheap option to use. Am I crazy about picking on Taillon? Nope, especially since he has a double-digit swinging strike rate over the last three years and posted a 13.5 percent mark in his first start of the season. With that said, he allowed two home runs, the BABIP is .125, and the LOB percentage is 100%. That good fortune is not going to be maintained. The FIP is also 5.72. If Kirk doesn’t play, just replace him with Danny Jansen, who is $100 cheaper. 

Rowdy Tellez ($2,800)

I went above why I want to pick on Taillon. I didn’t even mention his splits against left-handed batters. The K/BB drops from 6.68 to 2.24 and the FIP goes from 3.11 to 4.07 when compared against righties. Tellez has a ton of swing-and-miss to his game but he also possesses tremendous power, as Steamer projects him to put up a .204 ISO. For the price, I like the upside. 

Corey Seager ($5,500)

I decided to pay up for a Dodgers stack because of Antonio Senzatela as the swinging strike rate has never been above 8.5 percent and the K/9 has never exceeded 6.9. He’s a ground ball pitcher so home runs could be tough to come by but getting hits shouldn’t be a problem. The Rockies bullpen also has been one of the worst recently. As for Seager, while he hasn’t hit a home run yet, the slash is .342/.444/.447 and he’s absolutely crushing the ball as the average exit velocity has been 97.3 mile per hour.

Justin Upton ($3,500)

Upton is always gross to roster because he strikes out so much and is inconsistent. On the season, he has one home run with a 27 percent strikeout rate. The slash is a vomit-inducing .188/.270/.313. With that said, he does still have power as he’s posted an ISO above .200 in each of the last eight season and Steamer has him projected for a .217 ISO this season. Against left-handed pitching, he has a career .233 ISO. Danny Duffy is left-handed and gave up 1.6 HR/9 in 56.1 innings last season. The K/9 is projected to be under 8.6 and, over his career, the FIP has been 4.56 against righties, compared to 2.93 against lefties.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Trevor Bauer ($10,200)

In two starts this season, Bauer has allowed six hits, three home runs, three walks, and struck out 20 in 13 innings. He’s going to get his strikeouts but can give up a gopher ball from time to time. No worries, though, as the Rockies are completely inept outside of Coors Field. 

Chris Taylor ($4,300)

I went over why I wanted to attack Rockies pitching tonight. Taylor will likely bat eighth, in front of Bauer which stinks, and the price isn’t great but I get the wrap-around stack for the Dodgers. In 34 plate appearances so far this season, Taylor has one home run, a 20.6 percent walk rate, a .200 ISO, and a .280/.471/.480 slash. 

Cavan Biggio ($4,300)

I went over why I wanted to attack Taillon, so I fit all the left-handed bats in the Jays lineup. Biggio has been striking out a ton so far and the batting average has been bad, but he does have two home runs on the season in 35 plate appearances. The BABIP is at .125 so there’s been plenty of bad luck so far. Today’s his lucky day! I hope.

AJ Pollock ($3,700)

Pollock will likely bat seventh. I told you I had the wrap-around stack. He hasn’t been hitting for any power to begin the season but he’s had an ISO over .200 in each of the last four seasons and is projected to have a .193 ISO this year. It’s just a matter of time. 

Mookie Betts ($5,900)

Seven, eight, one, and two. That’s how we doing it tonight. Now, Mookie has missed four games so make sure he’s in the lineup, but it sounded like he will be rejoining the lineup today. When healthy, Mookie is one of the best hitters in the game. He has one home run and two stolen bases on the season with a ridiculous 14.3 percent walk rate and 3.6 percent strikeout rate. The ISO is .217 while the slash is .348/.464/.565.

Alternative Moves…

Juan Soto – OF ($5,600 DK) Soto is one of the best hitters in the game. He doesn’t have the stolen base prowess of Mookie but same power, maybe more, and plate discipline. The ISO is .300 on the young season while the slash is .300/.440/.600 in 25 plate appearances. The strikeout rate is only 12 percent. That is amazing for a hitter how could hit 40 home runs this season.

Brandon Woodruff – P ($7,500 DK)

Like with Gausman, Woodruff is just too cheap. In 11 innings so far this season, he’s allowed seven hits, three earned runs, walked two, and struck out 13. The swinging strike rate is 12.5 percent. The Cubs do have power as they are sixth in ISO against right-handed pitching, but they are also 10^th in strikeouts. If you move down from Bauer to Woodruff and pair him with Gausman, you have a ton of money to spend on bats. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.