DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 12, 2021

We’ve got a massive twelve-game slate for Monday with first pitches thrown at 4:05 PST. There are a ton of stud pitchers on the slate so many paths to victory. That doesn’t mean there aren’t pitchers to pick on. The Rangers have the lowest implied total at 3 runs while MIA (3.9), CHC (3.7), and DET (3.4) are all below 4. OAK (5) and HOU (5.2) are the only teams at 5 or higher. 

As for weather, Baltimore may get some light rain while in New York (Mets vs. Phillies) there’s a 71 percent of rain as of last night.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Tyler Glasnow ($10,400)

Glasnow has been magnifique to begin the season, as he’s gone six innings in both starts and allowed a total of five hits, one earned run, and has struck out 15 batters. The swinging strike rate is a robust 14.9 percent and he’s only walked two batters. Now he faces a Rangers team that is fourth in strikeouts and 21^st in ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s the guy I’m building around and I feel prettay, prettay good about it. 

Martin Maldonado ($3,700)

I usually try not to pay up at catcher and just fit in guys who are part of the stack or against pitching staffs that I want to pick on. Casey Mize is the starter I want to pick on today. In addition, the Tigers bullpen isn’t great either. Unfortunately, all of the bats are priced up so I can’t get there. I’ll get a piece of the action by inserting Maldonado, who strikes out a lot but has had an ISO above .160 in each of the last two seasons. 

Matt Olson ($4,400)

I’m picking on Madison Bumgarner today. In two starts, he’s allowed eight hits and five runs in one game and seven hits and six earned runs in the other. Granted, the first game was in Colorodo and the other was against a potent Padres lineup. Still, he is no longer the Bumgarner of old. Now, the BABIP has been .433 and the LOB percentage is at 57.3 percent, so some positive regression should come for him, but he’s still pitching to a 6.19 FIP. Olson does hit right-handed pitching much better than lefties, but he’s still posting a career .196 ISO against them. I’m stacking the Athletics today and Olson is in the heart of that lineup.

Carlos Correa ($4,600)

Correa was the last player to fit into the puzzle. As mentioned in the Maldonado blurb, I want to pick on the Tigers pitchers but the Astros bats are too expensive to stack. I had the salary left for Correa and he gives me some exposure to that game. Now, Correa is no slouch, despite his mediocre career numbers so far. He has never hit more than 24 home runs in a season. With that said, he has two home runs so far on this season and his hitting the ball hard (86^th percentile in average exit velocity, 99^th percentile in maximum exit velocity, and 80^th percentile in hard hit rate). 

Mark Canha ($3,900)

As mentioned above, I’m stacking the Athletics and Canha is batting leadoff. So far this season, he has two home runs with a 10.9 percent walk rate and 19.6 percent strikeout rate. The ISO is .231 while the slash is at .282/.391/.513. In his career, Canha has posted a .205 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/12/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Freddy Peralta ($7,700)

In his first start of the season, Peralta went five innings, allowed one hit, walked four, and struck out eight. In two innings of relief, he allowed two hits, walked three, and struck out six. The walks are a concern but the swing-and-miss arsenal is elite. The swinging strike rate is at 18.1 percent so far this season. It was at 15.7 percent last year. Now, there’s some risk here against the Cubs as they are 6^thin ISO against right-handed pitching. That’s likely one of the reasons why he’s priced at $7,700. With that said, the Cubs are 9^th in strikeout rate so there’s plenty of upside.

Jed Lowrie ($3,700)

He will likely bat third in the lineup and we are stacking against Bumgarner today! I haven’t mentioned that the Diamondbacks do not have the best bullpen either. As for Lowrie, he’s hit one home run with a .294/.368/.441 slash. The walk rate has been 10.5 percent, strikeout rate has been 15.8 percent, and the ISO has been .147. Those are not bad numbers. The BABIP has been .333, which is higher than normal for Lowrie.

Matt Chapman ($4,400)

Chapman bats fifth for the Athletics. He and Olson are the two big boppers in the lineup. He’s had an ISO above .200 in every major league season and last season it was at .303. There’s a ton of swing-and-miss to his game, though. He has a strikeout rate of 37.5 percent this season and last year it was at 35.5 percent. Throughout his career, though, the strikeout rate has been 24.4 percent and the ISO has been .215 against left-handed pitching. Chapman has been struggling to start the season but this could be a get-right spot for him.

Ramon Laureano ($3,800)

Laureano is batting second for the Athletics. He is one of the few power/speed guys in the lineup. Already on the season, he has one home run and five stolen bases. In his career, he has a .272 average and .189 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Jackie Bradley Jr. ($3,100)

Bradley will likely bat leadoff for the Brewers against Adbert Alzolay. The price and batting position are enticing by itself but Bradley has some power/speed combo action going as well. Steamer has him projected for 16 home runs and eight stolen bases on the season. He does strikeout a lot and is sporting a 36 percent strikeout rate in 25 plate appearances so far. In addition, he won’t bat for a high average but Alzolay allowed two home runs in his first start so there’s a chance for upside. It’s baseball.

Alternative Moves…

Gleyber Torres – SS ($4,500 DK) Torres has gotten off to a slow start, as he’s batting .219 with zero home runs and a 25.7 percent strikeout rate. He did hit 38 home runs two seasons ago and Steamer has him projected for 27 this season. He faces Robbie Ray who will be making his first start of the season. Ray has always been able to miss bats but control has always been an issue for him and he allowed 2.26 HR/9 last season. Throughout his career, he’s allowed 1.44 HR/9 against righties.

Zack Greinke – P ($10,200 DK)

In 13 innings pitched so far, Greinke has allowed eight hits, two earned runs, one home run, walked one, and racked up eight strikeouts. Now he gets one of the best matchups for a pitcher, the Detroit Tigers. They are first in strikeouts and 29^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.