DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 1, 2021

One of the fun aspects of opening day is that all the aces are going on the same day which fosters some epic battles. We’ve got Jacob deGrom going up against Max Scherzer, Jack Flaherty vs. Luis Castillo, and Kenta Maeda dueling Brandon Woodruff. Unfortunately, Gerrit Cole, Hyun Jin Ryu, and Shane Bieber are off the main slate because those games start an hour earlier. Ah man, morning baseball (sorry, east coasters). There really is nothing better. 

The weather could be an issue in a few spots. The Blue Jays visit the Yankees and there could be some showers. Winds will be blowing out to right at 15-20 mph. It should be a cold one with temperatures in the 40s. The Indians visit the Tigers and temperatures will be near freezing. Winds will be blowing out to center at 15-20 mph. The Orioles visit the Red Sox and there could be some early showers in the day. Temperatures will be in the 50s with winds blowing out to right at 10-15 mph. The Pirates visit the Cubs. Temperatures will be in the 30s with winds blowing in from left at 15 mph. Good for pitching; no bueno for hitting. The Cardinals visit the Phillies and there could be some rain during the day. It will be cold with winds blowing in from left at 15 mph. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Yu Darvish ($10,400)

Darvish is the best pitcher on the slate. His K-BB% was 26.6% last season. If you want to throw out 2020, that’s fine. It was still 23.7% in 2019. He gets to face a Diamondbacks team that was 22^nd in all of baseball last year with a .391 SLG. Vegas has the Padres as the heaviest favorites so there’s good win equity. 

Kyle Hendricks ($7,700)

Hendricks doesn’t strikeout a ton of batters but he has impeccable control, as evidenced by the 0.89 BB/9 which led MLB last season. He was also top 20 in HR/9 and posted a 3.55 FIP. The Pirates were dead-last in SLG last year with a .357 mark and traded their best power hitter away during the season. They were also 11^th in strikeout rate. The cherry on top is that 15 mph winds are expected to be blowing IN from left field.

C. J. Cron ($3,800)

I know, I know. It’s Clayton Kershaw on the mound but it’s Coors Field and Cron is sub-$4,000. In his career, Cron has an .818 OPS against left-handed pitching. Kershaw, as amazing as he is, has a .263/.311/.416 slash in 23 games at Coors Field and has allowed 19 home runs.

Corey Seager ($5,600)

It’s Coors Field! The game has a total of 11 runs with the Dodgers projected at 6.58. Seager bats second in a potent lineup that is going to score a ton of runs. If you take a look at his Statcast page, it’s all red. Red is good. The exit velocity is in the 97^Th percentile, hard hit rate is 98^th percentile, barrel percentage is 95^th percentile, xBA and xSLG are 99^th percentile, and xwOBA is 98^thpercentile. Whew. I need a cigarette now.  

Andrew Benintendi ($4,000)

Benintendi was a 20/20 player four years ago. Then he tried to become Barry Bonds because chicks dig the long ball. The approach changed then the struggles followed, culminating in a trade from Boston to Kansas City. He lost the weight, rediscovered the approach that brought him success, and now gets a clean slate. Benintendi will be batting second for a Royals team that was tops in stolen base attempts per game. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $500

Kolten Wong ($4,100)

Wong is batting leadoff for a Brewers squad which should be improved. Keston Hiura is another year older and Christian Yelich should return to MVP form. This game is also in Milwaukee which is one of the better hitting parks in MLB. Now, Kenta Maeda is an excellent pitcher but, while he dominates righties, he is not as great against lefties (.420 SLG versus .338 SLG).

Justin Turner ($4,700)

Turner is an excellent hitter who has batted .307, .290, .312, and .322 over the last four seasons. He’s batting third for arguably the best offense in baseball and playing in Coors Field, THE best ballpark for fantasy. AND he’s sub-$5,000. Please and thank you.

Austin Meadows ($3,600)

Meadows will likely be batting second for the Rays. His 2020 wasn’t great, as the strikeout rate was 32.9% and the slash was .205/.296/.371. The sample size was only 152 plate appearances, though, and the BABIP was only .288 compared to .331 the prior season. In 2019, he clubbed 33 home runs and stole 12 bases with a .291 batting average. Sandy Alcantara is a decent pitcher but he’s not overpowering by any means. The swinging strike rate is 10% and the K-BB% was 14%, despite throwing mid-90s on his fastball. 

Tommy Pham ($3,100)

Pham is batting third for a potent Padres lineup. He’s behind Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado. Crazy. Another possible overweighting of 2020? Last season, Pham had a .211/.312/.312 slash with a .101 ISO. The three seasons prior, he went 23/25, 21/15, and 21/25 while batting .306, .275, and .273 respectively. Throughout his career, he’s mashed lefties as well, posting a .895 OPS and .295 average against them. Madison Bumgarner isn’t the dominating force he once was.

Alternative Moves…

Joey Gallo – OF ($3,600 DK) Brad Keller is one of the best pitchers at keeping the ball in the ballpark but he struggles missing bats. Gallo is one of the preeminent power hitters but there’s a ton of swing and miss to his game. The immoveable object versus the unstoppable force? Gallo is batting third, is sub-$4,000, and a threat to go yard on any pitch. 

Brandon Woodruff – P ($8,000 DK) Woodruff is one of the top pitchers in the league. He throws mid-90s on his fastball which is complemented by a slider, curveball, and changeup, and he’s posted a K-BB% above 20% in each of the last two seasons. The swinging strike rate was 13% last season. While the Twins were 14^th in SLG last season, they were12^th in strikeout rate.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.