Want to know just how big the Waste Management Phoenix Open is? Well, let’s not get too carried away. The winner of the title won’t be thinking he’s won a major championship, but the noise he creates? Or rather, the racket the galleries make as they react to his golf? That’s going to eclipse anything at Augusta National or The Old Course this year. Because TPC Scottsdale attendances are not big, they are huge. The par-3 16th is surrounded by grandstands with seats for 20,000. Back in 2016, over 200,000 walked through the gates on Saturday. It’s the best attended event in golf and they make a LOT of noise.
Last time out
There was a point, midway through last week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, when our confident assertion that Seamus Power should be faded was looking a little foolhardy. He led the field by some margin after 36 holes, but ended the week struggling. Yes, he maintained his good form, but Poa had again found him out. On Sunday evening a little coup appeared close at hand, as Troy Merritt, flagged up at $7,200, joined the lead. He tripped up, but T–4 was an excellent return on little outlay.
Here’s are some entirely FREE suggestions for you this week with MORE for subscribers (DraftKings Prices)
| A list | H. Matsuyama | $10,400 | |
| Value | R. Fowler | $7,600 | |
| Avoid | J. Dahmen | $7,400 |
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400): The Masters champion is excellent with his approach play (he’s spent the Strokes Gained era in the top 20 for that category, most often in the top 10) and he’s also very good from the tee (top 50 every year, top 20 at his best). So it is perhaps no surprise that he was immediately at home playing this track. He was T–4 on debut in 2014, second a year later and then, of course, came the two wins. He’s added a pair of top 20s and was T–42 last year. He’s also in better form now than then, with two wins from his last four starts.
Rickie Fowler ($7,600) Read what he says about this place: “I have played well in the desert since I was a junior golfer. Being here, I like the golf course. It’s fun to play. If you get it going, drive it well, you can make a lot of birdies.” He ended last year – in the desert, in Las Vegas, gushing again about that form of the game – with third place at The CJ CUP. Back among the sand he offers value. He missed the cut at Torrey Pines last time out, but he did open with a 66. Good salary for a guy who is 10-for-13 with six top 15 finishes (four in his last six starts including that win).
Joel Dahmen ($7,400) The popular Dahmen has finished top 10 13 times on the PGA TOUR and while he has not uniformly been bad in his next start, he’s eight times finished outside the top 40 (with two top 10s against that). But, when you add in his record at TPC Scottsdale, he simply doesn’t appeal. He missed the cut in 2019 (easily), missed it again last year, and in-between? He withdrew. He scraped into the third round and was T–65 at 54 holes when he pulled out.
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Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale
A Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design, this track was designed to be fun for players and fans alike. Key to that trait is a closing stretch that just begs to be attacked. The 15th is a par-5, the 16th a stadium par-3, the 17th a drive-able par-4, and the 18th has a tee shot full of peril. Birdies and eagles can be made; so, too, can bogeys and double bogeys.
A key feature of the course is that it plays fast and firm. That aides the attacking instincts of players on that closing stretch and elsewhere. But with the putting surfaces also firm, ball striking comes to the fore. The par is 71 with three par-5s and a total yardage of a touch over 7,200.
Rickie Fowler, winner here in 2019, said of the challenge: “It’s fun to play. If you get it going and drive it well, you can make a lot of birdies.” Bubba Watson is yet to lift the trophy, but plays the track exceptionally well and added: “You can play out of the rough here, which I’m in a lot. I can hit some high shots and get them to stop on the greens.” Note that Beau Hossler suggested he struggled to hold greens; Bubba is better than he knows.
Gary Woodland, another past champion, didn’t mince his words: “Length is a huge advantage, especially 15. That’s a tough second shot in there. 13, I can take out a lot of the trouble with driver. Three, some guys can’t get to it some days and I can. So outside of that, the greens get pretty firm, so you got to drive the golf ball in the fairway.” More words that hint Bubba is good.
Weather
The weather forecast for Scottsdale, Arizona suggests that the low-scoring start to the 2022 calendar year for the PGA Tour is set to continue. Every day is more or less the same: sunny, mild breezes, no chance of rain, little humidity, temperatures in the mid-60s. Really not a lot to stop the field going low. One thing perhaps to note: it’s often chilly in the mornings here and that makes the course play a little longer first thing.
Past Winners of The Waste Management Phoenix Open
The event was first played at TPC Scottsdale in 1987 and has often been claimed by quality performers, but the winner’s roster is perhaps not quite stellar. The best argument against that might be in more recent times, when major champions have tended to thrive.
If we focus on more recent times, Phil Mickelson won a second and third title here in 2005 and 2013, J.B. Holmes was a two-time winner in 2006 and 2008, and up until 2015 there were victories for Aaron Baddeley, Kenny Perry, Hunter Mahan, Mark Wilson, Kyle Stanley and Kevin Stadler.
If Baby Walrus applied a full stop to a run of slightly underwhelming champions, the run since has been about as high quality as the event has ever experienced. Brooks Koepka announced himself to the PGA TOUR in 2015 and won again last year. His first victory was followed by back-to-back successes for Hideki Matsuyama. Then U.S. Open winners Gary Woodland and Webb Simpson sandwiched a triumph for Rickie Fowler.
Strategy
With those recent winners all being high class, that will be taken into consideration, but obviously at the higher end of salaries. Each of the last six winners ranked top 20 for both Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Approach in the week of their triumph. That speaks to the importance of long game this week. It has to be a factor. There are also plenty of course specialists so we’ll be digging for a few overlooked by the cappers.
Here’s A Line-up of Core Picks For The Waste Management Phoenix Open
| A list | X. Schauffele | $9,700 | |
| B list | B. Watson | $9,000 | |
| B list | L. Oosthuizen | $8,800 | |
| Value | A. Wise | $7,100 | |
| Value | M. Pereira | $7,000 | |
| Avoid | T. Gooch | $7,800 |
Xander Schauffele ($9,700) It’s perhaps not so much that Schauffele has such a fine course record (four starts, four top 20 finishes, second last year), it’s also the simple fact that it’s no illusion: In three of those four weeks he was in the top 20 all week, in the fourth he had only one bad round. He’s also very good in SG Off the Tee here (three times top 20, twice top six). Since this event in 2020 he has missed just two cuts and he likes a course he can attack, as the win at Plantation testifies. Is he really only seventh top salary?
Bubba Watson ($9,000) Bubba on courses he likes will repeat good golf. Think Augusta National, Riviera, River Highland and … well, here. He’s played the tournament 15 times and he has missed the cut just twice. 11 times he ended the week in the top 30, six times in the top 10, and he’s been runner-up twice. It’s a very, very solid set of results. Then he flew home on a wet sail last week in Saudi Arabia for second. What was little reported is how he didn’t just take the near-miss on the chin, he more or less welcomed it because, being good friends with the winner Harold Varner III, he was ecstatic for his pal. Good vibes.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) Earlier this year, on the DP World Tour, Adam Scott proved a neat follow. The Aussie has a stellar record out of the blocks every year and he duly collected a pair of top 10s in the Desert Swing. Now it’s time to see if Louis Oosthuizen can maintain a similar record. He’s landed nine top 10s (four of them wins) from his 13 first starts to a calendar year and now he starts 2022 at a course where he was T–3 in 2017 and T–11 last year.
Aaron Wise ($7,100) What have the last two PGA TOUR winners, Luke List and Tom Hoge, had in common? They’ve been featuring in top 10s during the week without closing out and they’ve had a little course form. Wise might have more of the same. His year opener witnessed a 67 on the North Course and 75 on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open. Even then he was briefly in the top 10. But he ended 2021 with five of six events seeing his name in the top 10 for the most part (and in the exception he recovered well from an abysmal start). In all, his last seven events in 2021 all reaped top 30s. The course form is hidden in a MC-66 record – a second round 65 last year. He ranks top 50 for SG Approach and Off the Tee.
Mito Pereira ($7,000) This week should suit the Web.com Tour breakout. He ranks 49th for SG Off the Tee and 10th for Approach. He’s 7-for-9 this season and each of those weekends reaped a top 40. This could be when he returns to the form that saw him land four top six finishes last summer.
Talor Gooch ($7,800) A fine player, one who has proved as much in some style this sesason, but his course form is very uninspiring. He missed the cut on debut in 2019, missed it again last year, and only made it to the weekend by one shot in 2020, making little impression thereafter to finish T–61. T–20 eventually last week, but he’s been outside the top 100 after 18 holes in his last two starts and outside the top 80 in four of his last seven laps.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) Earlier this year, on the DP World Tour, Adam Scott proved a neat follow. The Aussie has a stellar record out of the blocks every year and he duly collected a pair of top 10s in the Desert Swing. Now it’s time to see if Louis Oosthuizen can maintain a similar record. He’s landed nine top 10s (four of them wins) from his 13 first starts to a calendar year and now he starts 2022 at a course where he was T–3 in 2017 and T–11 last year.
Aaron Wise ($7,100) What have the last two PGA TOUR winners, Luke List and Tom Hoge, had in common? They’ve been featuring in top 10s during the week without closing out and they’ve had a little course form. Wise might have more of the same. His year opener witnessed a 67 on the North Course and 75 on the South Course in the Farmers Insurance Open. Even then he was briefly in the top 10. But he ended 2021 with five of six events seeing his name in the top 10 for the most part (and in the exception he recovered well from an abysmal start). In all, his last seven events in 2021 all reaped top 30s. The course form is hidden in a MC-66 record – a second round 65 last year. He ranks top 50 for SG Approach and Off the Tee.
Mito Pereira ($7,000) This week should suit the Web.com Tour breakout. He ranks 49th for SG Off the Tee and 10th for Approach. He’s 7-for-9 this season and each of those weekends reaped a top 40. This could be when he returns to the form that saw him land four top six finishes last summer.
Other Player Options For The Waste Management Phoenix Open
• It’s a bit obvious to say as much but to salary Jon Rahm is a really nice fit this week. The Arizona State grad feels an affinity with the event and he’s superb from tee and with his approach work. Moreover, in six visits he’s never been outside the top 20. Warning? He has a best of T–5 on debut.
• Nate Lashley faced a tricky prospect last week, returning to Pebble off a run of poor form and with memories of a final round putting nightmare wrecking his win bid 12 months earlier. In the circumstances, T–28 was a decent effort. He might spin off that on a course he has enjoyed: T–3 in 2020 and T–17 last year.
• Branden Grace has loved the track (T–2 and T–9) in his only visits, but beware: the only time he played the weekend in his last four starts was when there was no cut in Hawaii.
COVID-19 and Injury Warning:
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Go win your lineups and then tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
