DFS MLB Baseball Picks for July 1, 2021

We’ve got a seven-game slate for Thursday. Weather could be a factor once again as four games have some rain in the forecast with one game at PPD levels. Jacob deGrom is on the slate and he’s so far ahead of the field that I just figure out things around him. Coors Field is also on the slate so decisions need to be made.  I’m actually content with how the rest of the lineup fit so hopefully things work out well. PIT, CLE, NYM, and ATL are projected for fewer than four runs. STL, COL, HOU, LAD, and MIL are projected for at least five runs, with STL at 6.2 runs. ATL is projected for fewer than three runs. 

         
The LAD/WAS has PPD risk. MIL/PIT, NYM/ATL, and STL/COL all have rain in the forecast so keep an eye on the weather reports. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 7/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $200

Jacob deGrom ($11,500)

Prior to the last start, deGrom had scored at least 20 DKFP in 12 straight with six over 30 and a high of 58.1. Keep in mind that deGrom dealt with an injury recently and is just getting ramped back up. In the last three games, the pitch count has been 51, 70, and 88 so the trend is our friend. Hopefully, he can return to the GOAT ways. Matchups don’t really matter for deGrom but, while the Braves are 3^rd in ISO against right-handed pitching, they are 8^th in strikeouts. In addition, he just faced them two starts ago and put up 25.5 DKFP in only five innings.

Jason Castro ($2,200)

He’s $2,200. Fine, Martin Maldonado is out so Castro will likely get the start with the Astros projected for five runs. The strikeout rate is high at 30.4 percent but the walk rate is 16.5 percent and the ISO is .177 in 79 plate appearances.

Keston Hiura ($3,200)

The Brewers just went off for 15 runs so I kind of hate going back to them but they are cheap and get to face off against Wil Crowe. Against right-handed bats, he’s allowed a slash of .327/.388/.600 in 25 innings. Hiura has a ton of swing and miss to his game but he’s hit a home run in three of the last five games. 

Willy Adames ($4,400)

Adames also strikes out a ton (30.1 percent) but the ISO is .199. He has 11 home runs, 39 RBI, and three stolen bases in 286 plate appearances. I’m stacking the Brewers righties against Crowe. 

Alex Dickerson ($3,800)

Dickerson only has a .227/.297/.387 slash with a .160 ISO. He bats cleanup for the Giants, though, and has a career slash of .264/.333/.471 with a .208 ISO. Merrill Kelly has actually been decent this season, but Dickerson does most of his damage against righties and it’s all about getting to the Arizona bullpen, as they have the 3^rd-highest FIP.

PITCHER

• STUD – Jacob deGrom ($11,500). Out of respect.
• VALUE – Ian Anderson ($7,100). Mr. Anderson has a 3.21 FIP and 12.3 percent swinging strike rate. He’s only allowed seven home runs in 81.2 innings and struck out 88. He gets to face a Mets team that is 25^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. He just faced them two starts ago and put up 23.6 DKFP in 5.1 innings.

CATCHER

• STUD – Tyler Stephenson ($4,100) has a .259 ISO against left-handed pitching. He also bats cleanup for the Reds and the game will be in Great American Small Park. Ryan Weathers has a 5.2 FIP, 6.54 K/9, and 1.71 HR/9 against righties this season. 
• VALUE – Jason Castro ($2,200). I went over Castro above.

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500) is in Coors Field and gets to face Antonio Senzatela, who has actually been better at home than on the road but it’s still Coors Field. He’s allowed a .296/.359/.474 slash to righties but the HR/9 is 1.46 while the FIP is 4.88. Goldschmidt has a .186 ISO against right-handed pitching compared to the .050 mark against lefties.
• VALUE – Albert Pujols ($3,100) has a .319/.355/.681 slash with a .361 ISO against left-handed pitching. Corbin has a 5.88 FIP and a 2.11 HR/9 against righties.1+1=2. This game, unfortunately, has high PPD risk so keep an eye on weather reports.

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Kolten Wong ($5,100) has missed the last four games due to a calf injury but he was available to pinch hit on Wednesday and should return on Thursday. Keep an eye on the news. I’m stacking against Wil Crowe and, although righties are more successful against Crowe, Wong bats leadoff and has multiple paths to fantasy goodies.
• VALUE – Chris Taylor ($4,200). I’m just glad I don’t have to write up Luis Rengifo again. Taylor smashes left-handed pitching and I went over the struggles that Corbin has with righties. The ISO is .244 for Taylor. Keep an eye on the weather, though.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Nolan Arenado ($5,500) should be plenty familiar with the surroundings. He’s been better against lefties this season but the ISO is still .238 against righties.
• VALUE – Abraham Toro ($3,500). Toro is a switch-hitter who is much more successful against right-handed pitching. The ISO is .171 compared to .000 against lefties. JC Mejia just happens to be worse against lefties as the FIP is 4.43 and the HR/9 is 1.54.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Fernando Tatis Jr. ($6,000). Matchups don’t matter. He is one of the best hitters and fantasy players in the game as he can produce fantasy goodies in multiple ways. He has 25 home runs and 16 stolen bases on the season with a .295/.384/.692 slash. The ISO is .397!
• VALUE – Kyle Farmer ($3,000) bats in front of the pitcher and isn’t a particular good hitter. Against left-handed pitching, though, the ISO is .167. I went over some of the struggles that Ryan Weathers has with righties. 

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Yordan Alvarez ($5,200). Against right-handed pitching, the slash is .292/.358/.542 with a .250 ISO. JC Mejia is a righty who has a 4.43 FIP, 7.71 K/9, and 1.54 HR/9 against lefties. Alvarez is one of the best hitters in the game and I will always play him when up against a mediocre righty.
• VALUE – Kyle Tucker ($3,700) has 13 home runs, 44 runs, 46 RBI, and five stolen bases. The walk rate is 8.4 percent and the strikeout rate is only 15.5 percent. The slash is .268/.329/.487 with a .219 ISO. Against righties, the slash is .294/.363/.538 with a .244 ISO. Why is he always priced under $4,000? Inquiring minds want to know.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.