DFS MLB Baseball Picks for June 16, 2021

We’ve got an eight-game slate for Wednesday. There are a ton of stud pitchers on a small slate. That means there will be fewer pitchers to attack and likely means ownership on bats will be highly concentrated. PHI, TEX, ARI, BAL, and TOR are projected for fewer than four runs. HOU is the only team projected for at least five runs. No teams are projected for fewer than three runs. CHC/NYM have not had their lines posted yet.

All clear on the weather front as of this writing.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 6/16/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Jacob deGrom ($11,000)

deGrom is THE best pitcher on the planet. The FIP is 0.92 and the swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 21.2 percent. He’s struck out 103 batters in 64 innings while allowing only three home runs, four earned runs, and eight walks. Insanity. He’s gone for at least 22 DKFP in every start this season with two above 40 and a high of 58.1. In the last three starts, he’s gone for over 30 DKFP in each one. 

Ryan Jeffers ($2,800)

Jeffers is crushing lefties this season as the slash is .400/.455/.800 with a .400 ISO. Granted, it’s only been 22 plate appearances but it is what it is. If you want to expand the sample size, over his career which spans only 46 plate appearances, the slash is .350/.435/.550 with a .200 ISO. He gets to face lefty Justus Sheffield who has allowed seven home runs to righties with a slash of .291/.364/.467.

Brandon Belt ($4,600)

I always attack Diamondbacks pitching whenever I can. Merrill Kelly hasn’t been bad but he hasn’t been great either. The swinging strike rate is 9 percent while the FIP is 4.12. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the eight-highest FIP. Belt has a .263 ISO against right-handed pitching. 

Carlos Correa ($4,800)

I am stacking the Astros against Jordan Lyles. The Astros are implied for 5.2 runs and Lyles is #notgood. The K/9 is 7.66, walk rate is 3.22, and the FIP is 4.9. He’s allowed 12 home runs in 67 innings. Correa has 11 home runs with a 12.2 walk rate and 16.2 strikeout rate. The ISO is .203. 

Yordan Alvarez ($4,700)

Alvarez strikes out a lot at 26.2 percent but he is one of the best young power hitters in the game. The ISO is .218 which is good but not great, at least by his standards. He has a career .294 mark. If I’m stacking the Astros, I’m doing everything in my power to include Alvarez.

PITCHER

• STUD – If not going with deGrom, then Clayton Kershaw ($10,000) is my next favorite pitcher. Kershaw has a 2.74 FIP and 16.4 swinging strike rate. He’s struck out 95 batters in 82.1 innings while allowing only eight home runs and 14 walks. The Phillies are 5^th in strikeouts and 20^th in ISO against left-handed pitching.
• VALUE – Bailey Ober ($4,600) has started three games on the season with the two in June. The pitch count has gone from 51 to 73 and he went four and five innings respectively. He put up 12 and 16.5 DKFP. The swinging strike rate is 9.7 percent and he’s struck out 15 batters in 13 innings while only walking two. He has given up three home runs though. He gets to face a Mariners team that is 5^th in strikeouts and 15^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s cheap and we are hoping for 80 pitches, five innings, and double-digit DKFPs. 

CATCHER

• STUD – Buster Posey ($4,700). We are attacking Diamondbacks pitching today. Posey has 11 home runs on the season with a .329/.400/.571 slash with a .242 ISO.
• VALUE – Ryan Jeffers ($2,800) is my value catcher. I went over him above. 

FIRST BASE

• STUD – Yuli Gurriel ($4,900). Stacking against Jordan Lyles. Gurriel has 10 home runs with one stolen base on the season. The walk rate is 11 percent while the strikeout rate is only 9.4 percent. The slash is .323/.392/.536 with a .214 ISO. 
• VALUE – LaMonte Wade Jr. ($4,000). I wish Wade was cheaper but it is what it is. Wade only has three home runs and one stolen base on the season. The walk rate is 11.8 percent, though, and the slash is .276/.373/.448 with a .172 ISO. He bats leadoff and I almost always like the stack against Diamondbacks pitching.

SECOND BASE

• STUD – Jose Altuve ($5,600). Stacking against Jordan Lyles and Altuve bats at the top of the lineup for the Astros. He has 12 home runs and two stolen bases on the season with a 10.1 percent walk rate and 15.6 percent strikeout rate. The slash is .288/.358/.372 with a .186 ISO. Man, the Astros lineup is so deadly. They all have power and don’t strikeout much. 
• VALUE – Ozzie Albies ($4,300). Albies isn’t particularly cheap but he always seems underpriced to me. He bats third in a potent Braves lineup and has a .323 ISO against lefties with a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching.

THIRD BASE

• STUD – Josh Donaldson ($5,000). Against left-handed pitching, Donaldson has a .279/.380/.508 slash with a .230 ISO. Justus Sheffield has a 15.9 percent strikeout rate, 1.43 HR/9, and 5.2 FIP against righties.
• VALUE – Kyle Seager ($3,400). Seager is only batting .210 against righties and he’s going up against my value pitcher in Ober. That said, Ober has given up some long balls and Seager as hit 10 of his 13 home runs against right-handed pitching.

SHORTSTOP

• STUD – Jorge Polanco ($5,000). I don’t mind attacking Justus Sheffield with righties today. Polanco is a switch hitter and is slightly better from the left side but the ISO is .216 from the right side compared to .181 as a lefty.
• VALUE – J.P. Crawford ($3,700). Crawford bats leadoff for the Mariners. He’s not exciting as he only has three home runs and two stolen bases. The ISO is only .107 but the slash is a decent .274/.341/.380 with a 9.2 percent walk rate and 17.6 percent strikeout rate. 

OUTFIELD

• STUD – Aaron Judge ($5,700). Judge has 15 home runs on the season. The slash is .289/.388/.532 with a .243 ISO. Against right-handed pitching, the ISO is .240 and he’s hit 10 of his 15 home runs off them. Ross Stripling has reverse splits as the FIP is 5.74 against righties and 3.4 against lefties. The strikeout rate is much higher against lefties as well.
• VALUE – David Peralta ($2,500) is as meh as it gets. He has four home runs and one stolen base on the season. The strikeout rate is only 17.5 percent while the ISO is .164. He bats cleanup, though, and has driven in 33. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.