We’ve got a six-game slate for Wednesday. The pitching is kind of gross today. The two pitchers up top are either priced super high or have a tough matchup. Coors Field is on the slate so a decision has to be made. Pay up for the safety at pitching today or take some risk to fit in the bats. No risk no biscuit is my motto. There are two teams projected for fewer than four runs (SEA, and TEX). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (HOU and CIN).
All clear on the weather front.
Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/13/21 (using DraftKings Values)
| Pitcher | Cristian Javier | $10,000 | |||
| Pitcher | |||||
| Catcher | Tucker Barnhardt | $4,100 | |||
| First Base | Mike Moustakas | $4,700 | |||
| Second Base | |||||
| Third Base | |||||
| Short Stop | Carlos Correa | $4,900 | |||
| Outfield | Tyler Naquin | $4,300 | |||
| Outfield | |||||
| Outfield | |||||
Salary Remaining $000
Cristian Javier ($10,000)
I hate the price but Javier has the best combo of skills and matchup on the slate. I think Trevor Rogers is the best pitcher but his matchup is a tough one. That said, Javier has a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate and 3.36 FIP. He has struck out 38 batters in 31 innings while only allowing three home runs. Now he faces a Rangers team that is 2nd in strikeouts and 14th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Tucker Barnhardt ($4,100)
We are stacking against Chi Chi Gonzalez in Coors Field. Gonzalez has done a good job keeping the ball in the yard, as he’s allowed only three home runs in 28.2 innings. The 27.8 percent fly ball rate is elite, as it places him in the top 15. Enough with the praise. Let’s get to why we are attacking him. The swinging strike rate is 6.8 percent and he’s struck out 15 batters in 28.2 innings. The Rockies bullpen also has the third-highest FIP. Barnhardt has a .281/.364/.506 slash with a .215 ISO and three home runs on the year. It’s been BABIP-fueled with a .465 mark, though. Regardless, he’s batting in Coors and I like including the catcher into stacks if possible.
Mike Moustakas ($4,700)
Batting cleanup for the Reds. Moustakas has three home runs on the season. The ISO is .179 while the slash is .218/.304/.397. He usually has a low BABIP but the .226 mark is even low for him. He has great discipline, with a 9.8 percent walk rate and 17.4 percent strikeout rate. He’s had an ISO over .200 in each of the past five seasons so this is a spot for him to get right.
Carlos Correa ($4,900)
Correa has five home runs on the season but the overall profile hasn’t been great. The slash is .239/.290/.403 while the ISO is at .164. The BABIP is low at .260 so those numbers should improve. He’s also a career .202 ISO batter. Mike Foltynewicz has a 5.7 FIP and has allowed 11 home runs in 40 innings. The swinging strike rate is only 8.5 percent.
Tyler Naquin ($4,300)
Naquin bats fifth in the Reds lineup. He has eight home runs and two stolen bases so far. The ISO is a whopping .287. He’s more of a .180 ISO batter so expect some regression in the power department. That said, he’s in Coors Field so regression can hold off for a few more games.
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• A number of alternative picks that you mix in for some variations on your core lineups.
Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/13/21 (using DraftKings Values)
| Pitcher | Cristian Javier | $10,000 | |||
| Pitcher | Merrill Kelly | $7,900 | |||
| Catcher | Tucker Barnhardt | $4,100 | |||
| First Base | Mike Moustakas | $4,700 | |||
| Second Base | Nick Senzel | $3,700 | |||
| Third Base | Eugenio Suarez | $4,900 | |||
| Short Stop | Carlos Correa | $4,900 | |||
| Outfield | Tyler Naquin | $4,300 | |||
| Outfield | Kyle Tucker | $3,500 | |||
| Outfield | Jarred Kelenic | $2,000 | |||
Salary Remaining $000
Merrill Kelly ($7,900)
I’m not a fan of Kelly. The FIP is 4.75 and the swinging strike rate is only 7.6 percent. I want to stack the Reds so I need cheap pitching and Kelly has the best matchup. The Marlins are 4th in strikeouts and 26th in ISO against right-handed pitching.
Nick Senzel ($3,700)
Senzel is batting leadoff for the Reds. He has one home run and two stolen bases on the season. He’s gotten off to slow start in the power department as the ISO is .074. He’s a career .154 ISO player. He only strikes out 13.1 percent of the time and walks 11.2 percent, so hopefully he sets the table for the big boppers behind him and scores some runs. A stolen base or two would be nice as well.
Eugenio Suarez ($4,900)
Suarez bats sixth for the Reds and he completes the stack. I wanted Jesse Winker and/or Nick Castellanos but they were too expensive. I’m ok with Suarez because he has tons of power. He slugged 49 home runs two seasons ago. Now, he strikes out a ton (35.5 percent) and has been struggling in the early going, as the slash is .146/.232/.325. The BABIP is only .174 so some good times should be incoming. Why not today?
Kyle Tucker ($3,500)
I went over Foltynewicz in the Correa blurb. Yummy. Tucker has seven home runs and two stolen bases. He only strikes out 18.4 percent of the time while the walk rate is at 9.2 percent. The ISO is .228 but the slash is .203/.279/.431. The BABIP is only .194 so good times are on the horizon.
Jarred Kelenic ($2,000)
The highly-touted rookie is set to make his MLB debut today. He’s going to hit in the bottom of the order but he’s minimum priced. He has power and speed with excellent plate discipline. Let’s go!
Alternative Moves…
Eddie Rosario – OF ($3,300 DK) – Rosario bats cleanup for the Indians who get to face Logan Gilbert, making his MLB debut.
Trevor Rogers – P ($9,300 DK)
Rogers has a 2.5 FIP with a robust 16.5 percent swinging strike rate. He’s the best pitcher on the slate but the Diamondbacks are 24th in strikeouts and 1st in ISO against left-handed pitching. That’s why he’s my alternative and not in the starting lineup.
Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.
