DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 10, 2021

We’ve got a tiny six-game slate for Monday. There are no ace pitchers and Coors Field is on the slate. There are weather concerns there so it could be a five-game slate. To complicate matters, the pitchers for the Angels and Marlins haven’t been announced yet. Good times but I’m a professional so you’re in good hands. Like a good neighbor I’m there for you. If I don’t get a State Farm sponsorship then I don’t know what I’m doing with my life. There are three teams projected for fewer than four runs (PIT, SF, and TEX). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (SD and BOS). There are zero teams projected for fewer than three runs. LAA/HOU and MIA/ARI have not had their game lines released as of the time of this writing.

                 
Rain is expected in Colorado. Whether that game plays will determine this slate.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/10/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Alex Wood ($9,800)

Wood has gotten off to a great start, allowing only five earned runs and two home runs while walking five and striking out 22 in 23 innings. The BABIP is .196 and the LOB percentage is 86.4 percent so he’s received the benefit of good fortune. That said, the FIP is still only 3.10, the swinging strike rate is a healthy 13.1 percent, and he’s pitching in the friendly confines of Oracle Park and will be facing a Rangers team that is 14^th in strikeouts and 22^nd in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Martin Maldonado ($3,100)

We still don’t know who is pitching for the Angels but I’m punting at the catcher position today. Maldonado strikes out a ton but he has enough power to bop one over the fence if he gets a hold of one. 

Jared Walsh ($4,200)

In his career against lefties, Luis Garcia has allowed a 5.56 FIP and 1.72 HR/9. Walsh is a lefty who has six home runs and a .216 ISO on the season. In his career, the slash is .285/.364/.560 with a .275 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Xander Bogaerts ($5,400)

We are attacking Jorge Lopez and the Orioles bullpen today. Lopez has a 10.8 percent swinging strike rate and 6.14 FDIP. He’s allowed seven home runs and 19 earned runs in 26.1 innings. He’s bad against both righties and lefties but slightly worse against lefties. Bogaerts is one of the best hitters in the game and has seven home runs with two stolen bases on the season so far. The ISO is .246 with a paltry 15.6 percent strikeout rate.

Alex Verdugo ($4,100)

Verdugo is batting second for the Red Sox. He has four home runs and three stolen bases in 133 plate appearances. The slash is .311/.368/.487 with a .176 ISO and 11.3 percent strikeout rate. Verdugo is equally adept against both righties and lefties but he definitely has more power against righties. The ISO is .189 compared to .138 against left-handed pitching.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/10/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Tyler Mahle ($9,400)

Mahle has a 12.2 percent strikeout rate and has 41 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. He has allowed 11 earned runs, five home runs, and walked 11 but the FIP is still a respectable 3.82. The Pirates don’t strike out often, as they are 27^th in the league, but they also have no power and sit at 29^th in ISO against right-handed pitching.

Isan Diaz ($3,200)

Diaz has a slash of .208/.355/.458 with a .250 ISO. The BABIP is .176 so good fortune could come his way. Both the walk and strikeout rates are at 19.4 percent. I love to see that. I’m not a huge fan of Luke Weaver as he’s allowed 20 earned runs and six home runs in 29.2 innings. The swinging strike rate is at 10.4 percent. The Diamondbacks bullpen also has the fourth-highest FIP in the league.

Rafael Devers ($5,200)

The Red Sox stack. Yum yum. And Devers is a lefty. He has seven home runs and two stolen bases on the season. The ISO is at .263 with a 21.2 strikeout rate and 12.1 walk rate. 

Marwin Gonzalez ($3,300)

With Kike Hernandez out with an injury, Marwin has been batting leadoff. The ISO is only .104 and the slash is .208/.319/.313. The BABIP is at .257 so a little luck could come his way and he’s a career .151 ISO player. That said, he’s batting leadoff against a pitching staff that I want to attack.

Franchy Cordero ($2,000)

The last piece of the Red Sox stack. I of course wanted JD Martinez but he was too expensive and decisions had to be made. Cordero is the stone cold minimum and, while he will likely strikeout (39.2 percent strikeout rate currently), he does have power. The ISO is currently .045 but he’s a career .168 ISO player. Could he be toast? It’s possible but if he connects, it could get out of the park. 

Alternative Moves…

Brandon Belt – OF ($4,300 DK) – Belt has seven home runs and two stolen bases on the season. The strikeout rate is 31.2 percent but the ISO is .267. The Giants have undergone a philosophical shift over the last few years. They used to be a contact, grind-it-out team. Now, they are swinging for the faces. They are at the top in both strikeouts and ISO.

Kyle Gibson – P ($8,600 DK)  

And because of that philosophical shift for the Giants, I don’t mind Gibson against them. He’s only struck out 35 batters in 41.1 innings but the swinging strike rate is 13.4 percent. He also is sporting a 3.06 FIP and has allowed only two home runs on the season. 

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.