DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 7, 2021

We’ve got a 14-game slate for Friday. TGIF. None of the so-called aces are going today but there are a few very good pitchers. I’m paying up at both pitching slots as I wasn’t enamored with any of the cheapies down low. I identified the stack I wanted, and paid a hefty price for the bats. I feel good with the pitching and the stack. The residual pieces? Not so much. There are 10 teams projected for fewer than four runs (SD, SF, TB, LAA, COL, KC, PHI, ARI, MIL, and MIA). There are two teams projected for at least five runs (NYY and BOS). There are zero teams projected for fewer than three runs. 

There are a couple of spots where weather could be an issue. The MIN/DET and CIN/CLE could get light rain but it doesn’t look to be that bad. The BOS/BAL game, though, is expecting tons of rain and could be a risk rostering any of those players.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/7/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Jack Flaherty ($9,400)

Flaherty has been solid to start the season. He’s allowed three home runs in 34.1 innings while walking 10 and striking out 36. The FIP is 3.28 while the swinging strike rate is 11.1 percent. Nothing spectacular but very solid. The matchup, though. Oh, magnifique. The Rockies are inept away from Coors Field. They are dead-last in ISO, 8^th in strikeouts, 27^th in runs scored, and 30^th in home runs.

Martin Maldonado ($2,000)

We are attacking Ross Stripling today, especially with the righties. The BABIP is an elevated .400 so he’s been unfortunate but the swinging strike rate is only 7.8 percent, the average exit velocity is 90.4 mph, and he’s allowing 11.9 percent barrel rate. The slash against righties this season is .436/.465/.718 in 7.2 innings and both home runs he’s allowed have been to righties. Over his career, the slash is .284/.324/.482 against righties compared to .227/.278/.377 against lefties. Maldonado kind of stink, as the strikeout rate is 40.3 percent and the slash is .091/.167/.136, but he’s minimum priced and he hit a home run last night. Plus, he’s part of the stack and is a righty power bat.

Miguel Sano ($3,300)

Sano bats sixth for the Twins. Like Maldonado, he strikes out a lot but he has a ton of power. In his career, he’s sporting a .252 ISO. Tarik Skubal has gotten off to a rough start, allowing eight home runs in 22 innings. In his brief career, he’s allowed 17 home runs in 41 innings to righties. 

Carlos Correa ($5,100)

All the righties against Stripling. Correa has four home runs on the season and the ISO is at .167. He only strikes out 16.9 percent of the time and has an average exit velocity of 90.8 mph. He hits sixth in the batting order and should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. 

Yordan Alvarez ($4,400)

I was going to use this spot on Yuli Gurriel to keep the righties against Stripling theme but Alvarez is just too studly of a hitter. It doesn’t matter who’s on the mound, he is always is a threat to leave the field. He has five home runs on the season now after launching two against Gerritt Cole yesterday. The ISO is .216 and the slash is a .318/.361/.534. Oh, my bad. Those numbers will be much better after yesterday’s explosion.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/7/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Trevor Rogers ($8,800)

Rogers has been fantastic to start the season. He’s struck out 44 batters in 33 innings while walking 13 and allowing only two home runs. The swinging strike rate is a robust 16.5 percent. Now he faces a Brewers squad that is 5^th in strikeouts against left-handed pitching. 

Jose Altuve ($4,800)

The ISO is only .086 for Altuve but he did hit a home run yesterday. Yipee! He’s batting leadoff and he could score some runs and/or get an extra at-bat. The strikeout rate is only 15.6 percent and the BABIP is .275 so a little bit a good fortune could be on the horizon.

Alex Bregman ($4,800)

Bregman and Yordan are the two I’m counting on to pop one or two or three or four over the fence. I’ll take five, please. Bregman has five home runs on the season and the slash is .294/.350/.478 with a .185 ISO. He’s a career .236 ISO player.  

Joey Gallo ($3,700)

Gallo is one of the premier power hitters in the game. The ISO is only at .118 so far this season but he sports a career .279 mark. He’s going to get hot at some point and I want to be on the ride when that happens. Now, he strikes out a ton, like 36.6 percent of the time, but Chris Flexen doesn’t miss bats, as the swinging strike rate is 8.2 percent.

Jordan Luplow ($3,600)

Luplow has historically been very good against left-handed pitching. The ISO is .324 compared to .150 while the batting average is .263 versus .190. He will likely bat second in the batting order as well. So far in 2021, Madison Bumgarner has allowed three of his four home runs to righties and the slash is .258/.327/.444 compared to .158/.292/368 versus lefties.

Alternative Moves…

Dylan Carlson – OF ($3,400 DK) – Carlson will also likely bat second in the order and, like Luplow, has been successful against left-handed pitching over his career. The slash is .345/.405/.552 with a .207 ISO against lefties compared to .220/.282/.392 with a .172 ISO versus righties. Austin Gomber has only allowed three home runs so far but he’s walked 20 while striking out only 27 batters in 29 innings. The swinging strike rate is only 8.2 percent.

Sean Manaea – P ($9,200 DK)

Manaea has a 12 percent swinging strike rate and 3.31 FIP. He’s only walked seven batters while striking out 33 in 33.2 innings. The Rays are 2^nd in strikeouts and 20^th in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.