DFS MLB Baseball Picks for May 6, 2021

We’ve got an eight-game slate for Thursday. Not a good day yesterday so hopefully we can get back to good times today. I identified the pitchers I wanted and the ones I wanted to attack against pretty quickly. The prices of the bats were expensive so it made filling in the roster a bit challenging. I kind of like where things ended up except for a few spots. Hopefully, the sum is better than the parts. There are five teams projected for fewer than four runs (MIL, PHI, HOU, DET, and OAK). There is one team projected for at least five runs (BOS). There are zero teams projected for fewer than three runs. The TEX/MIN game hasn’t had their game total released as of the time of this writing. 

Things look clear on the weather front.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/6/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Brandon Woodruff ($9,300)

Woodruff has been great to start the season. He’s allowed only one home run in 35 innings while striking out 40. He’s had some good fortune, as the BABIP is .222 but the FIP is still only 2.14. Now he gets a matchup against a Phillies team that is 7^th in strikeouts and 24^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. They will likely be without Bryce Harper as well.

Danny Jansen ($2,400)

Jansen is terrible. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The slash is a ridiculous .073/.164/.091. It’s fourth down so you know what needs to be done. I wanted the salary and there’s a Lloyd Christmas chance that he can produce something above a zero since Mike Fiers is pretty terrible himself. The swinging strike rate is a miniscule 4.8 percent and the FIP is at 7.44.

Ryan O’Hearn ($2,600)

The price is cheap for the potential upside. O’Hearn will likely bat sixth in the order and he has two home runs on the season. The strikeout rate is 30.8 percent. There’s a reason he’s priced at $2,600. That said, against righties in his career, the the ISO is .223. Tristan McKenzie has a 6.03 FIP against lefties and he’s allowed 2.42 HR/9 against them.

Dansby Swanson ($4,100)

Jon Lester is bad now. In 52.2 innings last season, he allowed 11 home runs to righties. Swanson has a .147 ISO against lefties, which isn’t great but isn’t bad either. The Nationals bullpen also has the 10^th-highest FIP.

Byron Buxton ($5,800)

We are attacking Jordan Lyles today. Lyles has a 6.14 FIP and has allowed eight home runs in 28 innings. Buxton has been unreal to start the season. He has nine home runs and four stolen bases. The slash is .386/.427/.819 with an insane .434 ISO. The average has been fueled by a .426 BABIP but whatever. He’s locked in. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 5/6/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $300

Nathan Eovaldi ($8,400)

Eovaldi has a 13.3 percent swinging strike rate and a 2.13 FIP. He hasn’t allowed a home run in 34.2 innings. That’s obviously not sustainable but it’s a testament to how well he’s been pitching. The average exit velocity is a career-low 86.6 mph. In the last two seasons, that number was above 90 mph. The barrel rate is only 4 percent. Now, the LOB rate is only 67.4 percent so he’s been a little unlucky in that department. Now he gets a Tigers team that is 2^nd in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.

Jonathan Villar ($3,300)

Villar was one of the last pieces to fit in. I’m not crazy about the play but this is the cost of doing business when we pay up for an expensive stack. Villar is striking out 29.8 percent of the time but he does have a little pop in the bat with good speed on the base paths. John Gant has walked 18 in 25 innings so there’s a chance Villar could get on base and steal a base or two.

Josh Donaldson ($5,100)

Stacking against Lyles today, who has some reverse splits. Of the eight homers he’s allowed this season, seven have come from righties. In his career, the HR/9 is 1.26 to lefties and 1.3 to righties. Donaldson has two home runs on the season and the ISO is at .179. He still has plenty of pop in the bat. 

Nelson Cruz ($5,300)

Cruz must be salivating at the thought of facing Lyles today. He has eight home runs on the season and the slash is .304/.356/.609 with a robust .304 ISO. For a power hitter, the 17.3 percent strikeout rate is an impressive number. In his career against righties, the ISO is .243.

Max Kepler ($3,400)

Kepler will likely lead off for the Twins, and we are stacking against Lyles. The ISO is only. 113 and he has yet to hit a home run, but it’s coming. He’s a .200 ISO player and he mashed 36 home runs two seasons ago. He does have four stolen bases so far so there are multiple paths to fantasy goodies.

Alternative Moves…

Rafael Devers – 3B ($5,200 DK) – The Red Sox stack didn’t work so well yesterday but I have no problem going back to the well. The Tigers bullpen has the highest FIP while Turnbull only has a 8.4 percent swinging strike rate.

Zach Wheeler – P ($9,600 DK)        

It was essentially a coin flip between Wheeler and Woodruff. Both miss bats and both have good matchups. The Brewers are 4^th in strikeouts and 21^st in      ISO against right-handed pitching. There’s also no Christian Yelich in the lineup.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.