DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 30, 2021

By Stan Son
         

We’ve got a massive 14-game slate for Friday. Things were pretty straight forward. The pitchers I wanted were identified right away while the stack was apparent. It just came down to if I wanted all the high-priced bats in the stack or go with the bottom portion of the lineup. There are 10 teams projected for fewer than four runs (PHI, DET, HOU, TEX, CLE, CHW, KC, BAL, SF, and SEA). There is one team projected for at least five runs (NYY). There is one team projected for fewer than three runs (DET). The MIA/WAS, ATL/TOR, and LAD/MIL games haven’t had their game totals released as of the time of this writing. 

                 
Clear skies all throughout the slate. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/30/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Gerrit Cole ($10,500)

Not too much analysis is needed here. The swinging strike is 15.2 percent and FIP is 0.72. The Tigers have the lowest-implied total on the slate at 2.6 runs. They are 5^th in strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Now, the Tigers are 5^th in ISO, but Cole has only allowed one home run in 31.2 innings and I’ll side with his bat-missing ability in this one.

Kyle Higashioka ($3,800)

He is essentially Cole’s catcher so he should get the nod over Gary Sanchez. Plus, he’s been so much better at the plate as well. He has four home runs in 33 plate appearances. The walk rate is 12.1 percent while the strikeout rate is 21.2 percent. The slash is .276/.364/.759 while the BABIP is only .222. So things could get better! Now, he’s not a .483 ISO hitter but he does have a career .233 mark. 

Alex Kirilloff ($2,500)

It’s been tough sledding for Kirilloff, as the slash is .115/.115/.154 with a .038 ISO. The BABIP is .150 so at least there’s been some bad luck. Kirilloff is a highly-touted prospect so he’s get it going at some point. He’s been batting fourth or fifth in the lineup against right-handed pitching, so the coaching staff still believes in him. Brady Singer has been good to start the season, so it’s not that I want to pick on him. It’s just that Kirilloff is $2,500 and batting in the heart of the Twins lineup.

Gleyber Torres ($4,200)

We are attacking Tarik Skubal and the Detroit bullpen. Full-on stack. Skubal has a 6.77 FIP and has allowed 11 earned runs, five home runs, and 12 walks in 19 innings. In his career against righties, the HR/9 is 3.32 while the FIP is 6.1. All 14 of the home runs he’s served up have been to righties. Torres has a career .261/.342/.516 slash with a .255 ISO against left-handed pitching. The Tigers bullpen has the highest FIP in the league. 

Aaron Judge ($5,500)

We are stacking against the Tigers pitching staff. In his career against left-handed pitching, Judge has a .264 ISO.  

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/30/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Andrew Heaney ($6,800)

Heaney immediately jumped out to me due to his cheap price. He has a 14.3 percent swinging strike rate and 2.07 FIP. He’s struck out 29 batters while only walking seven and giving up one home run in 20.2 innings. Seattle is 6^th in strikeouts and 15^th in ISO against left-handed pitching.

Jake Cronenworth ($3,800)

Cronenworth has two home runs and three stolen bases on the season. The walk rate is 9.9 percent while the strikeout rate is 16.2 percent. The slash is a respectable .260/.345/.396. The ISO is only .135 so he’s not a mega bopper but he has multiple paths to scoring fantasy goodies. Logan Webb has been pitching well to start the season, so this isn’t about attacking him. Cronenworth just fit into the puzzle after paying up for the Yankees stack. 

Gio Urshela ($3,600)

Urshela’s been on a heater this week, collecting a hit in four straight games and clubbing two home runs. We are attacking the Tigers pitching staff with righties today. 

Giancarlo Stanton ($5,200)

We are attacking the Tigers pitching staff with righties and Stanton is one of the best and most powerful in the lineup. 

Brandon Nimmo ($4,000)

Nimmo has a .345/.457/.466 slash. The BABIP is .500, though, so he’s gotten extremely lucky. He is walking 15.5 percent but the strikeout rate is elevated at 26.8 percent. He has one home run and two stolen bases on the season so multiple paths to fantasy goodies. He’s batting leadoff and facing Chase Anderson, who has a 5.67 FIP and has allowed 12 earned runs and three home runs in 16.2 innings. The Phillies bullpen also has the 7^th-highest FIP.

Alternative Moves…

Nico Hoerner – 2B ($3,200 DK) – Two nights in a row for Hoerner. Hmmm. The plate discipline numbers are great – 19.2 percent walk rate and 15.4 percent strikeout rate. The slash is .333/.462/.524 but it’s BABIP-fueled. He doesn’t have much pop but has some prowess on the basepaths. The allure is that he’s hitting leadoff and facing Wade Miley and the Reds bullpen. Miley has struck out 16 in 22 innings while the BABIP is only .190. The Reds bullpen has the 3^rd-highest FIP.  

Mike Fiers – P ($6,900 DK)    

Fiers isn’t a good pitcher and he will be making his first start of the season. Every once in a while, though, he pitches a gem. He’s at home and, while he doesn’t miss bats, the Orioles are 7^th in strikeouts and 26^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Plus, he’s pitching in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.