DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 28, 2021

We’ve got a 10-game slate for Wednesday. I wasn’t enamored with any of the lower-priced pitchers again so we are paying up at both slots again. There are some pitchers to attack but the bats have been priced up so I’ve pulled out the sniper scope and picked off the cheaper options. There are six teams projected for fewer than four runs (WAS, OAK, SEA, DET, COL, and SF). There are three teams projected for at least five runs (SD, HOU, and TOR). There is no team projected for fewer than three runs. 

Weather could be an issue for the STL/PHI and TEX/LAA games.

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/28/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Carlos Rodon ($9,800)

Rodon has allowed one earned run in 19 innings while striking out 24. He’s been very fortunate, though, as the BABIP is .105 and LOB percentage is 95.9. The FIP is 2.99 compared to the 0.47 ERA. There’s going to be regression at some point. With that said, the swinging strike rate is 16 percent and he’s facing a Tigers team that is 1^st in strikeouts and 30^th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Regression will start after this game.

Martin Maldonado ($3,200)

Maldonado has struck out 45.3 percent of the time. He has five hits in 53 plate appearances. He’s bad but he has some power when he’s not striking out. He’s not going to have a .020 ISO and .102 batting average all season. I want to attack Justin Dunn today, who has a 5.61 FIP, 6.75 BB/9, and has been very fortunate with a .194 BABIP. Maldonado was the cheapest bat who I felt had the highest upside.

Rowdy Tellez ($3,400)

We are attacking Erick Fedde and the Nationals bullpen. Fedde’s numbers actually look ok past the 5.51 ERA. The FIP is 3.34 and he’s had some back luck. That said, the swinging strike rate is a paltry 6.5 percent and he’s struggled with lefties throughout his career. The strikeout rate is 14 percent against lefties and he’s allowed a .292 average. Tellez has gotten off to a frigid start, as the slash is .193/.220/.281 and the ISO is .088. He has a career .233 ISO against right-handed pitching. The Nationals bullpen was also taxed last night.

Tim Anderson ($5,500)

We are going back to the well. Jose Urena pitched well last night but we are attacking Casey Mize and the Tigers bullpen, which has the highest FIP in the league. Mize has a 6.33 FIP and 8 percent swinging strike rate. He’s also allowed five home runs in 20.2 innings. Anderson has three home runs with three stolen bases while slashing .333/.346/.549 with a .216 ISO. It is .412-BABIP-fueled but he’s always maintained a high BABIP.

Adam Eaton ($4,300)

Like I said, we are attacking Mise and the Tigers pen. I wanted the other bats in the White Sox lineup but they are all too expensive. No worries. Eaton bats second and has hit three home runs and stolen a base in 85 plate appearances. The average is low at .243 but the plate discipline numbers are decent with a 8.2 percent walk rate and 18.8 percent strikeout rate.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/28/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $100

Alex Wood ($8,300)

Wood is pitching at Oracle Park and facing a Rockies team that is completely inept outside of Coors Field. So far in 12 innings, Wood has allowed one home run, one earned run, walked one, and struck out 11. He’s been fortunate but the FIP is still only 2.59.

Rougned Odor ($3,500)

Odor has three home runs in 48 plate appearances and the strikeout rate is only 16.7 percent Yippee! The slash is only .159/.229/.364, though. He has been unlucky as the BABIP is .121. Early in his career, Odor maintained a sub-20 percent strikeout so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this is real. I have my doubts, though, and he’s probably more in the high-20s. With that said, he will likely bat cleanup against Adam Plutko who has been good to start the year but his track record suggest that he is not a good pitcher. The BABIP is .200 while the LOB percentage is 93.8 percent. 

Cavan Biggio ($4,200)

He’s a lefty against Fedde and is hitting second in the order. Biggio is striking out 32.4 percent of the time but he is walking 14.1 percent and has a .153 ISO. He’s had some back luck but could get right today. 

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,700)

Gurriel is another one who has struggled to start the season. The slash is .203/.232/.219 while the ISO is at .016. The BABIP is .265. Gurriel has a career .206 ISO and .280/.320/.486. He didn’t forget how to hit. He’ll get it going soon and that could start today.

Kyle Tucker ($4,000)

We are attacking Justin Dunn. Tucker has five home runs and one stolen base on the season. The ISO is a healthy .212 while the strikeout rate is only 18.3 percent. He’s been unlucky with a .152 BABIP which has produced a .176/.207/.388 slash.

Alternative Moves…

Cedric Mullins – OF ($4,100 DK) – Mullins has been on a heater recently, clubbing two home runs in his last game. He has a total of three home runs and two stolen bases on the season. The BABIP is .444 so the good times are not going to last forever but they could continue for one more game at least.  

German Marquez – P ($7,500 DK)   

Marquez is a good pitcher. It’s too bad he pitches half his games in Coors Field. The crazy thing is that the FIP is higher on the road than at home. He gets BABIP’d to death at home. He’s pitching in Oracle Park against a Giants team that is 9^th in ISO but 2^nd in strikeouts against right-handed pitching.  

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.