DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 8, 2021

We’ve got a seven-game slate with morning baseball again! Life is good. This slate looks pretty straight forward. Pay up for pitching and stack the Rockies. The pricing works out and Merrill Kelly is one of the pitchers I wanted to attack regardless. What could go wrong? Well, it’s baseball so all we can do is put ourselves in the best position and see if the universe looks favorably upon us today. 

As for weather, there’s a chance of rain in Chicago and Minnesota with Chicago being the likelier place for trouble. There’s double-digit wind projections in multiple venues but nothing too alarming. 

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/8/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Jose Berrios ($9,800)

In his first start this season, Berrios did not allow a hit and struck out 12 in six innings. Now he faces a Mariners team that is fifth in strikeouts and 17^th in ISO against right-handed pitching. Not too much analysis is needed here. The matchup is great, Berrios is good at missing bats, and he is one of three pitchers worth paying up for today.

Willians Astudillo ($3,200)

Astudillo is a very good hitter with unbelievable plate discipline. In the minors, he never had a strikeout rate over five percent and he batted over .300 in eight seasons. In 2019, he had 209 plate appearances in the majors and posted a strikeout rate of 3.9 percent while batting .268. He doesn’t have tremendous power but is projected for an ISO of .162. Now he matches up against Marco Gonzales, who has a career swinging strike rate of 8.6 percent. 

CJ Cron ($3,800)

Cron is batting .167 with a .056 ISO to start the season. He’s only had 21 plate appearances so nothing to worry about…yet. He has a ton of power and is projected for a .227 ISO. The home runs will come. It’s just a matter of time. Why not today? Merrill Kelly pitched four innings in his first start and allowed five hits, one home run, and three earned runs against the Padres. In his major league career that has spanned three seasons so far, Kelly has never had a swinging strike rate above 9.8 percent and the hard hit rate was around 40 percent in 2019 and 2020.

Trevor Story ($5,100)

We are stacking the Rockies today. I’ve gone over Kelly and the Diamondbacks haven’t had the most formidable bullpen lately as well. Over the last year, they’ve been 13^th-worst with a 4.53 FIP. I don’t think I need to go deep into Story. He’s one of the best hitters in the league.

Charlie Blackmon ($5,000)

If you didn’t believe me about stacking the Rockies, how about now? Blackmon bats cleanup and hopefully there’s plenty of cleaning up to do. He’s a career .303 batter and still possesses 20-plus home run power. The speed has all but evaporated but the plate discipline is still elite. He has never had a strikeout rate above 19.5 percent. 

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $000

Lance Lynn ($8,700)

Lynn only pitched 4.2 innings in his first outing but he did not allow an earned run. Last season, Lynn posted a K-BB mark of 18.6 percent and had a swinging strike rate of 11.2 percent. He racked up 89 strikeouts in 84 innings. The prior year, he struck out 246 batters in 208 innings. The Royals are middle-of-the-pack in strikeout rate but they are 27^th in ISO.

Garrett Hampson ($3,200)

He was good for us yesterday. As of the time of this writing, he’s gone 2-for-3 with an RBI, two runs, and three stolen bases. That translates to 29 DKFP. And it’s only the top of the 7^th inning. He did bat leadoff as well. He’s a cheap component of our Rockies stack and will likely hit at the top of the order.

Eduardo Escobar ($3,800)

Escobar was the last piece of the puzzle. The price is palatable and he’s hitting in Coors Field. The power output waned last season, but the two prior seasons, Escobar contributed an ISO of .242 and .217. Jon Gray is a decent pitcher who throws mid-90s on his fastball and has pitched relatively well at home, but it’s still Coors Field. In addition, the Rockies bullpen has been one of the worst.

Adam Eaton ($3,700)

Eaton will likely be batting leadoff for a White Sox team that is projected for 5.1 runs. He’s never had a strikeout rate above 19 percent and takes his walks when presented. There’s a little pop in the bat and speed on the base paths. He gets to face Brad Keller who has never had a K/9 above 6.7 and a swinging strike rate above 9 percent.

Raimel Tapia ($3,700)

Our stack is complete! Tapia will likely bat leadoff. He’s an excellent hitter who has the power/speed combo as well. Not 20/20 but 10/15. It’s Coors Field, though, so both the power and speed play. If he hits one into the gaps, it’s two, maybe three bags. If things go according to plan, then he should score a ton of runs today. 

Alternative Moves…

Maikel Franco – 3B ($3,700 DK) Franco is an interesting player because the strikeout rate has been in the 15 percent range for the past four seasons, yet the ISO has exceeded .175 in each of those seasons. He faces Eduardo Rodriguez who has done a decent job suppressing home runs to righties but the K/9 decreases by 1.64 when compared against lefties. 

Corbin Burnes – P ($9,400 DK) Burnes was electric in his first start of the year, allowing just one home run while striking out 11 in 6.1 innings. The K/9 over the past two seasons has been 13.27 and 12.86, while the swinging strike rate has been 14.5 and 17.2 percent. Those are gaudy numbers. The Cardinals have been 12^th in strikeouts and 26^th in ISO against right-handed pitching, but they made some improvements in the offseason. I don’t hate the idea of paying $700 from Lynn to Burnes.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.