DFS MLB Baseball Picks for April 5, 2021

Welcome to Jacob deGrom day. He is the best and most expensive pitcher on the slate. There’s merit to fading him in tournaments, as there are plenty of viable options, but for cash games you play him. As for who to pair him with, the options are plentiful. Who to target for bats will be an interesting endeavor, though. Some of the pitchers that immediately stand out due to recent history have either changed teams, shown significant improvements in spring training, or both. Let’s see what we can uncover.

As for weather, clear skies all around.  

Here’s our 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/2/21 (using DraftKings Values

Salary Remaining          $0

Jacob deGrom ($10,700)

Not much analysis is needed here. He’s the best pitcher in the game. The fastball averages 98 mph, the swinging strike rate was 21.6 percent last season, K-BB percentage was 32.1 percent last year, and he’s allowed more than one home run per nine innings only once in his career, back in 2017. 

Willson Contreras ($4,900)

I usually hate paying up for catchers but I just can’t help myself here. Contreras is slated to bat leadoff against Brett Anderson, he of the 6.34 K/9 and 8.5 percent swinging strike rate. In his career, Anderson has allowed a .414 SLG to righties while Contreras has mashed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .488 SLG mark. 

Yoshi Tsutsugo ($2,900)

I will play Tsutsugo every time he’s leading off and priced below $3,000. Steamer has him projected for a .340 OBP and .438 SLG. He faces off against Nick Pivetta, who has had control issues in the past, posting BB/9 numbers over three in three of the last four seasons. He also gives up the long ball: 2.3 per nine last season and 1.92 per nine the season before. 

Francisco Lindor ($4,800)

Lindor will be batting second in the lineup against Matt Moore, who typically has a K-BB percentage in the 10% range and has had difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. Steamer has him projected to allow 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Throughout his career, Moore has allowed a .418 SLG to righties while Lindor has a career .487 SLG against left-handed pitching. 

Justin Upton ($3,400)

I’m not a fan of Upton due to the high strikeout rate and inconsistency of play. With that said, he still possesses tremendous power and can get hot at any time. Plus, he’s very cheap, which provides some salary relief, and the matchup is a good one. Luis Garcia has control issues, as the BB/9 is projected to be 4.8 and he is projected to allow 1.41 home runs per nine innings. In 12.1 MLB innings last season, the swinging strike rate was 10.8%.

Here’s our full 50-50 MLB DFS lineup for 4/1/21 (using DraftKings Values)

Salary Remaining          $0

Carlos Rodon ($6,700)

Rodon has always tantalized but injuries and control issues have usually resulted in ending up in the fantasy trash. During this spring training, though, he’s pitched 13.2 innings, posted a 1.32 ERA, and struck out 16 batters while only walking one. Granted, it’s only spring training but the DK price is so appealing. In addition, the matchup with the Mariners is a good one as they strikeout the third-most frequently against left-handed pitching and are 27th in SLG. 

Kolten Wong ($3,700)

Wong bats leadoff for the Brewers. He has a career .333 OBP and .384 SLG. The power has fallen off over the years, though, but he gets to face Trevor Williams who has a K-BB percentage of 10 percent and had a 6.3 FIP in 55.1 innings last season. Williams has posted a 10 percent swinging strike rate the last two seasons and is projected for a K/9 of 7.34 this year.

David Fletcher ($4,500)

Luis Garcia is my favorite pitcher to attack on this slate but I try not to stack in cash games. Plus, we paid up for deGrom so we have to utilize cheaper and secondary options in the lineup. Fletcher isn’t much of a power threat but he’s batting leadoff, gets on base at a high clip, and has the chance to score a ton of runs. He also has a little bit of stolen base equity as well. 

Alex Verdugo ($3,100)

Verdugo is the perfect two-hole hitter. He doesn’t strike out often, takes his share of walks, has a little pop with some speed, and hits for a high average. He faces Michael Wacha, who the Rays picked up after he spent last season with the Mets. Wacha has been susceptible to the long ball the past two season and has pitched to a FIP above five. Now, I have a little trepidation with this selection because of the respect I have for the Rays organization but the opportunity for fantasy goodies are also there. At $3,100, I’ll take the chance.

Austin Meadows ($4,400)

Meadows has gotten off to a great start, clubbing two home runs in 13 plate appearances. He’s batting second and gets to face Nick Pivetta, who I went over in the Tsutsugo section above. 

Alternative Moves…

Travis Shaw – 3B ($4,300 DK) Shaw has a ton of power but there’s also plenty of swing and miss to his game as well. He’s batting fifth and gets to face Trevor Williams, who isn’t the most imposing pitcher and allowed 2.44 home runs per nine innings in 55.1 innings last season.

Adrian Morejon – P ($8,100 DK) Morejon posted a 11.64 K/9 in 19.1 innings last season. The swinging strike rate was a robust 13%. The lefty averages 96.6 mph on his fastball and complements that with a slider, curveball, and splitter. The Giants are 17^th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and 21^st in SLG.

Go win your lineup and tell us how you did. Twitter (@FantasyDFSX) is a good place for that.